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So far this week is pretty much playing out as expected with the combination of the Fed testimony and the upcoming Brexit Vote, but a comment by Tess in the chat area had me wanting to take a closer look at Precious Metals. Things are still exactly as expected, but a slight variation in cycle count may be in order. Lets have a review of our markets first...
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SPX- As expected so far
Read MoreMonday we awoke to a Gold and Silver slam down, and the futures for just about everything else was pointing to a higher open. As the day went on, Gold and silver went higher and the general markets sold off into the close. Tuesday, the futures show pretty much the same. Will today bring what we saw yesterday? Janet Yellen is testifying before congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, and Thursday is the Brexit vote, so it seems that many do not want to commit ahead of time, we may just get more of the same.
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DJIA- The Dow regained the 50sma intraday, but then sold off into the close.
Read MorePlease read the weekend report, this is part 2. I wanted to post a few trade ideas...
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Read MoreThe Fed Decision is behind us and just when we thought that maybe we could enjoy a week free from extreme volatility, we have BREXIT this week. The vote regarding the European Union is on Thursday, and that could give us another week of volatility. That said, by using Cycle analysis and Technical analysis, we have been expecting a certain outcome and things do seem to be lining up as anticipated. Lets do a review.
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SPX- We may have seen a 1/2 cycle low. This would lean more to the bullish side indicating that the current consolidation is building steam to attempt a break out. This looks like a 'W' pattern with a handle.
The W-Pattern is a bullish pattern mentioned in William O'Neil's Books. This one ran to $800, and is currently at $1800.
That is not the only Bullish chart on our Brexit Week, there are more ...
Read MoreWhen a climber begins his or her ascent, they are full of energy and the start of the climb may be easier than when they near the peak. As the climb continues, you may see him or her periodically rest, shake out the tightness, even drop back and pursue a different path to the top. I often see that same thing happen in the climb of various stock market sectors, and Precious Metals and the Oil sector is experiencing that now. They remains bullish long term in my opinion. We will discuss that briefly, but first...
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SPX - SPX put in a reversal on Thursday just as it started to lose the 50sma. We'll see if there is any follow through to its recovery today.
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That's what I heard from the Fed.
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SPX - This needs to move higher soon. It is starting to show internal signs of weakness, even though it doesn't look like much of a pullback. The VIX looks like a bull flag may be forming.
Read MoreThis was my thinking from yesterdays report...
This is how Tuesday ended. We lost and regained the 50sma and today is Fed Wednesday. Will the 50sma hold or will this drop to the 200sma? Lets look at 2 more things.
Read MoreMonday we saw a little more selling in the general markets as we approach the Fed meeting Wednesday. I have been bullish for a possible break out to new highs, but recent action is less bullish and it may be that we wont know for sure until after Fed Wednesday. Tuesday may also be a little bit boring ahead of the Fed.
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The SPX - This looks a bit better than the DOW, NASDAQ, And BKX at a glance, but notice that it looks to be dipping into a daily cycle low. MAYBE the Fed Wed decision will hold it at the 50sma and set a new trend line, but right now, this warrants caution.
The NASDAQ is a tad weaker
Read MoreAfter we review the general markets, Oil, the CRB, etc, this weekend report will focus mainly on Gold, Silver, and Miners. To the charts...
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SPX - This is a Fed Week, so I am watching the markets very closely at this critical area. This is rather early in the daily cycle, and if this is "the Peak', it will likely be left translated. We saw a slight break to new highs and then it gave them up. On day 15, I'll we watching this closely going into the Fed mtg.
We have 1 trading day left in the week and then we can relax. The weekend report will further our discussion on Energy and Precious metals, so today I am going to just show you 3 charts that will be in the weekend report.
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You may have heard that you should not buy miners until after a 'blood bath phase'. As mentioned in my May 18 report, I have received emails telling me that warnings are out that the next ICL ( meaningful cycle lows that occur roughly every 5-6 months) will NOT come until we first see a huge sell off. Many think that will happen around Brexit ( June 23rd).
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I used this chart to show what happened coming out of the 2008 lows, when we looked for our 2nd ICL. I do NOT see a deep bloodbath phase 6 months after Oct 2008 lows. I see higher lows for 1 year, so that is noteworthy.
Actually, for 2 weeks I have been saying that we could be at the next important low in the precious metals sector. Last weekends report discussed this idea further and this weekend will include more research in that area .
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