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The weekend report discussed Turning Points. Though I have laid out my big picture expectations, I also mentioned that at turning points it is important to continue to examine clues from an unbiased view point. Sometimes subtle changes at turning points can either alter the bigger picture or confirm it. I discussed a few changes developing in my weekend report, so lets continue to examine any clues that may appear.
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SPX - Our run higher still resembles the run higher last fall in many ways. I am expecting a dip down into a DCL soon, but the move out of that daily cycle low is going to be important to watch. It is not time to short this market yet. As the market rises , I see a bearish wedge and lighter volume. We wait for the dip.
Usually at tops (even temporary tops) , the VIX gets down near $12 -$13. Spikes higher in the vix can lead to bottoms, and a spike lower can signal a top. The vix is low enough, but a spike lower would probably signal a temporary top.
Read MoreIt doesn't matter whether markets are rising or falling, sooner or later, they hit a turning point. We have a lot to discuss this weekend regarding those turning points, so lets dig right in...
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SPX - Whether we started a bear market or not, I still expected a strong rally when we were at recent lows. It would draw in bulls, but what comes next after 6 weeks higher?
This rally has played out pretty much as expected, but I want to point out some interesting changes in character that could affect future trades / trading.
Read MoreQuad witching can add volume and a little volatility to the trading day, so I just wanted to do a review of the markets and discuss a few trades.
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Let me start with the IWM this time. I actually like this set up for a run to the 200msa. We'll see if Quad witching helps or hinders things. This does look bullish.
I wanted to start with the IWM, because...
Read MoreNobody wants to take unnecessary risks in the market, but the saying "Nothing ventured, nothing gained" applies too. So you have heard me mention looking for "Low risk entries", but what is that? It is timing an entry where the risk to the downside is minimal, and the gain on the upside outweighs it. We will discus that further later in this report.
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SPX -Friday is Quad witching. The Fed didn't kill the markets this time, but that wasn't a very convincing push either, was it?
Read MoreIt's Fed Wednesday, and so far there is no real change here, going into that decision.
SPX - No real change in this chart, but there may be a change of character. We have the Fed decision Wednesday and Quad witching Friday to pop this above the 200sma, or drop it down to maybe the 50sma area. Tuesdays selling recovered.
Let me point out this ...
Read MoreThe short term trade set ups seem pretty clear, but with that Fed Wednesday Meeting rapidly approaching, the end of the week could host a number of reactions. Lets see how things are currently unfolding .
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SPX - This bearish wedge was forming last week (March 9 chart).
The SPX did drop quickly and recovered last week, as seen here. Is this still a wedge though?
The Fed Mtg is approaching and could affect the outcome.
Read MoreWell, after several weeks of good trading , it appears again. Yes, I'm taking about that Elephant in the room - only this time things He's levitating as we head into the Fed Mtg this Wednesday. Lets take a look at our markets, keeping in mind that we do have a Fed Meeting this week.
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SPX - I see a rising wedge and on day 20, we could drop to a 1/2 cycle low. So we could drop heading into the Fed Wednesday or possibly see a drop after?
I mentioned something important last week and I want to remind friends of that here...
Read MoreQuick update on the Pullbacks...
SPX - Remember that Wedge from March 9 below? I still expected it to run to the 200sma , and then a drop to the 50sma in a 1/2 cycle low.
SPX - The 2 spike down days could be changing the way that lower trend line looks. The SPX has the run up /sideways/ run up/ sideways look. It is in a congested resistance area, this as it heads into next weeks fed mtg. That is where it bears watching ( For strength or weakness).
Read MoreHave you ever noticed that when we are waiting to see if a pull back presents a buying opportunity, it feels like price just drips down in slow motion day after day , no matter how sweet it looks? I'm feeling that now 🙂 Lets review the markets and then check out a few areas of interest.
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SPX - No change from the last few reports
Read MoreYesterdays report mentioning Anti-Gravity stocks was just the right thing to start the corrections 🙂 In Energy stocks I think we were getting a bit spoiled with 70 & 80 % gains in a single trade, but not so spoiled with giving back 20 - 25% today in BAS, LGCY, ARP, etc. Commodities are pulling back and Miners may start joining them. Will we be buying this dip? Lets take a look.
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SPX - My chart from yesterday. I had called for a rally , but now calling for caution.
SPX - And we did start a little selling Tuesday. We can go higher since we are still inside of that wedge, but eventually I expect a drop to at least the 50sma.
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