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When a climber begins his or her ascent, they are full of energy and the start of the climb may be easier than when they near the peak. As the climb continues, you may see him or her periodically rest, shake out the tightness, even drop back and pursue a different path to the top. I often see that same thing happen in the climb of various stock market sectors, and Precious Metals and the Oil sector is experiencing that now. They remains bullish long term in my opinion. We will discuss that briefly, but first...
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SPX - SPX put in a reversal on Thursday just as it started to lose the 50sma. We'll see if there is any follow through to its recovery today.
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That's what I heard from the Fed.
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SPX - This needs to move higher soon. It is starting to show internal signs of weakness, even though it doesn't look like much of a pullback. The VIX looks like a bull flag may be forming.
Read MoreThis was my thinking from yesterdays report...
This is how Tuesday ended. We lost and regained the 50sma and today is Fed Wednesday. Will the 50sma hold or will this drop to the 200sma? Lets look at 2 more things.
Read MoreMonday we saw a little more selling in the general markets as we approach the Fed meeting Wednesday. I have been bullish for a possible break out to new highs, but recent action is less bullish and it may be that we wont know for sure until after Fed Wednesday. Tuesday may also be a little bit boring ahead of the Fed.
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The SPX - This looks a bit better than the DOW, NASDAQ, And BKX at a glance, but notice that it looks to be dipping into a daily cycle low. MAYBE the Fed Wed decision will hold it at the 50sma and set a new trend line, but right now, this warrants caution.
The NASDAQ is a tad weaker
Read MoreAfter we review the general markets, Oil, the CRB, etc, this weekend report will focus mainly on Gold, Silver, and Miners. To the charts...
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SPX - This is a Fed Week, so I am watching the markets very closely at this critical area. This is rather early in the daily cycle, and if this is "the Peak', it will likely be left translated. We saw a slight break to new highs and then it gave them up. On day 15, I'll we watching this closely going into the Fed mtg.
We have 1 trading day left in the week and then we can relax. The weekend report will further our discussion on Energy and Precious metals, so today I am going to just show you 3 charts that will be in the weekend report.
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You may have heard that you should not buy miners until after a 'blood bath phase'. As mentioned in my May 18 report, I have received emails telling me that warnings are out that the next ICL ( meaningful cycle lows that occur roughly every 5-6 months) will NOT come until we first see a huge sell off. Many think that will happen around Brexit ( June 23rd).
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I used this chart to show what happened coming out of the 2008 lows, when we looked for our 2nd ICL. I do NOT see a deep bloodbath phase 6 months after Oct 2008 lows. I see higher lows for 1 year, so that is noteworthy.
Actually, for 2 weeks I have been saying that we could be at the next important low in the precious metals sector. Last weekends report discussed this idea further and this weekend will include more research in that area .
Read MoreWe've been discussing Oil and Energy among other things recently, and I wanted to mention what I am noticing in this sector lately.
WTIC - Over a month ago, I had a target of $51.60. I felt that Oil may struggle at the $50 area and pull back before moving higher. A drop into a Daily Cycle Low would be the red path shown. The Green path is possible too.
We do see that struggle at the $50 area, but here is something to consider...
Read MoreEverything that we have been discussing is still lining up. Lets review...
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SPX - I have been expecting a bullish rise since the lows in February, and a higher high after the DCL. Quite interesting that even after a very weak jobs report Friday, the chart remains bullishly lined up.
Read MoreThis is part 2 of our weekend report, and it will focus on the Precious Metals Market. In Last weekends report, I pointed out this very important chart. What was I trying to draw attention to?
GOLD- Using Cycles, the Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) , a very meaningful bottom, has been arriving every 4-5 months. I pointed out that at 6 months from the Dec 3rd ICL, a very important low is due. Gold was not plunging deeply into its low, so many were not buying, they are waiting for that deep pullback. Would it be that easy to get 'low priced Miners' again? I thought we would see the ICL in 1 or 2 weeks. Here we are, 1 week later.
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