Archive for category: Premium

I find that I'm still not making any changes to my thinking since the weekend report. Let's review the markets.

SPX - I'm watching the green trend line, and that will let me know when the general markets are ready to drop into a dcl.  Even though we do have a break out, the SPX has basically moved sideways since early December.

SPX WKLY from my weekend report. I'm not expecting a strong continuation higher before we roll over.

This weekend we are going to just keep it simple. We are in the middle of what has turned out to be some very good trades, and they have been acting correctly for weeks now. Why get too complicated when we are seeing things remain right on track as we go forward.  To the chart!

SPX - Personally I have not taken a trade in the general markets by means of ETFs. Individual stocks have done well, but the volatility in this sideways consolidation has schooled both the Long & shorts.

1. We had a break out (bullish) , but the VIX was down near 10 ( Bearish)

2. We had a failed break out when it gapped down, and an ISLAND TOP formed ( bearish).

3. That was negated Friday when the gap closed, and this looks bullish again. The green trend line is key going forward.

We were watching the VIX , which was indicating that the markets would likely pull back in February sometime ( I mentioned that the VIX is not a short term timing tool, I use it as a cautionary measure). Now let's look at the weekly charts.

Well, That went pretty Well, didn't it?  🙂

Let's discuss Monday and keep in mind that we are closing in on the FOMC meeting Wednesday.

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SPX FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT - After the break out the VIX was below 11!  I expected that we could get a drop and not a continuation higher for now.

I posted this in the comments section near 11 a.m.,  the VIX was popping and the markets were dropping.  This looked like the markets could be rolling over going into the Fed Meeting.

SPX END OF THE DAY -  Then the markets reversed and put in a pretty big reversal candle. It recovered back to the consolidation highs, but it was still down 14 points. The jury is still out, but anyone that jumped in long at the break out or short as the day sold off have both been schooled a bit. The school of volatility.

It's Friday, the last trading day of the week, and things are continuing to move ahead, right on target. Let's take a look...

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When I pointed out the USD on Wednesday, we were looking at a new low on day 32, with a peak on day 16.