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The Fed Minutes are scheduled to be released today. At times like this, we sometimes get a glimpse of what was behind the recent decision on interest rates. Is inflation starting to creep in? Just how divided or united were the Fed members when it came to timing for rate hikes, etc. Lets take a look at the charts and cycles and see if we can glean some idea of what could happen after the Fed Minutes are released.
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SPX - HMMM, This daily cycle peaked very early (day 8), and today is day 21. There are false break downs and shake outs in life, but this should be viewed as a warning sign. Why? I see a left translated daily cycle breaking down with maybe 10 more days to go. I see more room to drop on the stochastics, and a weak RSI. The Fed minutes could sink this ship or perform a miracle 'shake out' type move and a recovery, but this is a bearish set up the way I see it at this point.
Read MoreIf you have been investing and trading for years, no doubt there are times that you find it is best to wait for that 'Fat Pitch', but not always so easy. Well the good news is, I can see that a real low risk buying opportunity is fast approaching, so lets discuss that again in todays report after a quick review of the markets...
Read MoreAnother week of choppy trading, but there is a lot to talk about this weekend. It may be time to start gathering the goods, so lets get right to the charts.
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SPX - More of the same, Capped at the 50sma and L.T. ( left Translated) so far, it still needs to break one way or the other. Markets do not like indecision, and maybe this is what we get until after the elections. Please read the chart.
Read MoreWe are still waiting and maybe, just maybe, the Jobs report FRIDAY before the bell will act as a catalyst. Lets discuss why it would be great to see the futures in Gold higher before the market opens.
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$GOLD - To start with, we have been expecting this type of a deep sell off since the summer. This is becoming deeply oversold, from the Brexit buying to this recent steady exit.
This is what I wanted to point out for Friday...
Read MoreToday I want to take a closer look at Oil and Gold.
If you have been here for a few months, then you know that this is what we have been waiting for. Lets review.
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GDX - Way back in August I started to ready us for a deeper pull back than many at that time would think is likely. You may recall that I kept saying that a solid target was $22-$24 and I said to look for that steep drop at the end of September or beginning of October.
This chart from Aug 22 is an example of me preparing us for a coming buying opportunity. I expected a bounce first, then a steep drop.
My Weekly chart showed GDX broke the weekly uptrend line. A wkly trend line break for an 8 month trend is 'ugly', and indicates that a yearly cycle low is coming. That magenta box became the likely target after that bounce at $22-$24 shown in Sept/ Oct. We would monitor things a little closer when we got there.
We are there, time to monitor things a bit more closely. 🙂
Read MoreLets take a look at what appears to be some good energy.
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WTIC -
As expected, Oil is following through to the upside. Sitting near the August highs, it could form a handle on this mini cup , or it may just power higher to the June highs.
Read MoreOur recent weeks of trading have had a lot of sideways chopping action. My last report discussed how that was ending in Oil, and I think that the choppy action is about to end in the general markets too. Lets go to the charts.
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SPX - As price approaches an Apex we should see a nice break out and run. There is a lot of pressure built up in this consolidation. A break down could get ugly fast, but this leans bullishly at this point.
SPX WKLY - This looks similar to the 2011 sell off, break out and back test in 2012.
Read MoreLets talk about the current window of opportunity
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WTIC - Wednesday I said that this break out looked legit.
WTIC - And Thursday we saw follow through, but...
This is what I really want you to see ...
Read MoreAfter all of the sideways chop, I think we finally have something interesting to talk about.
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SPX - If Oil could get moving higher, I think we'll see the markets moving higher too. After all of this sideways chop ( in many sectors), this is a bullish set up with todays strong reversal.
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