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Last weeks weekend report showed what the BIGGER BIG PICTURE expectations are. This weekend I want to cover the various sectors and explain in a short clear manner what the expectations in the near term are, going forward.
DOW - As mentioned last weekend, The weekly chart makes it clear that the DOW is not pulling back as much as it normally would during daily cycle draw downs into the Daily Cycle Lows. See the chart.
Read MoreAfter the closing bell Thursday we had a number of companies release their earnings reports. Some of the Big companies like GOOGLE, AMAZON, MICROSOFT, FIRST SOLAR, etc were among the group and received positive reactions, with their stocks shooting up in after hours. Will this usher in the next leg up in the markets ( or maybe we should just say a 'continuation' higher) ? Let's take a closer look...
DJIA - I was expecting a bit more of a correction, but this flag consolidation may simply be a pause in the run higher.
SPX - I would have expected a drop to the 50sma, but if these markets are in a parabolic run, this may be all we get as it also just continues higher. Let's see what Friday brings.
NASDAQ - I expected a drop to the 50sma area, but all those positive earnings last night in GOOG, AMZN, Etc. could get the NASDAQ going again too. Look for a break above the 10sma or this red dotted trend line.
Read MoreAre the markets starting to roll over? If so, will it be a deep dip, a 'Buy the dip", or is this just another 'one day sell off and recovery'? Let's take a look at the charts and see what we can take note of...
NASDAQ - So here we see that the NASDAQ sold off yesterday, but by the end of the day, some buying came in and gave us a reversal candle. Does this mean that onward and upward we go?
Read MoreLet's do a NATGAS & MINERS review and discuss a few trade ideas, since we didn't have a chance to do that on Tuesday...
Read MoreThis weekends report is going to be a bit different. I often give the Big Picture review, and with that, we have been discussing since last January the possibility of a Blow Off Top / Parabolic move resulting from the general markets' bullishness. Well, this is going to be an even Bigger Picture discussion, with a few shorter term charts at the end for update purposes. It is a long detailed report designed to answer many emails that I have received about the bigger big picture , so grab some coffee or tea and let's begin...
NASDAQ - This chart was from last May. I posted this idea of how the current rally that we were seeing could be becoming parabolic. Parabolic moves seem like they will never end, and you'll hear that "Nothing can kill this market", and it feels so true. Then suddenly, they die a brilliant death as you can see in the year 2000. See the chart below, where we examined similarities of a final shake out consolidation, a ramp up with somewhat choppy trading that would still having higher lows, higher highs, and then the final Ramp higher...
NASDAQ - Here we are now and the choppiness with higher lows and higher highs seems to be playing out now, and a blow off top would follow. OR, is this the blow off top in play as it just continues higher? This move is verticle and could lead to the blow off top. Just ride it long. I have drawn in a post blow off top scenario with a normal 'back test' of the break out. Let's dig in further...
NASDAQ - Currently, the 'choppiness', when examined close up, is normal. I have advised buying with a reasonable trailing stop. Each dip to the 50sma can be bought as a low risk entry. Was that tiny dip the DCL, because we are so late into this current daily cycle? I'll show you why that could be possible later using the RUT AND TRANNIES. If it isn't a dcl, and we get a dip to the 50sma (even with a shake out there), that would obviously be a 'buy'- please read the chart. THis is a healthy strong bull run.
Now let's also look at the BIGGER PICTURE SPX, RUT, TRAN, DJIA
Read MoreThe markets had a bit of a drop yesterday, and some recovered and even closed green by the end of the day. Are we out of the woods now, with only upside ahead again? Let's take a look at some charts...
TNA - We are late in the timing for a dcl, and I could paint a case for the TNA, RUT, IWM, etc as having pulled back enough for a dcl. It broke a trend line, and closed under the 10sma to satisfy the requirements. A Follow through upside and a break out above the Magenta line would be bullish. What a beautiful run higher the small caps have had.
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SPX - Yesterday in our comments and in other blogs I read where people were saying how this market can't pull back, nothing can drop it down, people were adding leverage, etc . That very thing happened at the various 'tops' before a big drop on other occasions, late in a daily cycle. Let me show you the DOW & THE NAZ.
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DOW JONES - No change here, just a bullish run up and off of the 50sma that seems like it'll never end, but they do. We are overdue for a dcl, so trailing stop and we'll see if we get that dip this week. The Dow hit 23,000 for the first time ever. When it hit 21,000 & 22,000 it dipped within 4 days.
Read More Let's talk about the Miners. We were expecting them to be weak and struggle early on out of the recent dcl. Monday was interesting...
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