A Matter Of Time

Lets talk about timing.

So far the markets are acting as expected for an equity market that has found its ICL.  The Excessive Bearish sentiment , Put / Call Ratio extremes , the Vix and Various set ups pointed out here in early July were all calling for a contrary reaction.  Not what the crowd would expect.  I expected a rally, but waiting for it each day seemed like time was being warped.    I still see the Precious Metals under similar circumstances, but as you wait for an inverse reaction , it seems like each day is a week.  Lets review this thinking.

Here is one of the many charts that I used to say that I expected a meaningful low in the equity Markets. This was July 6th.  Extremes comparable to OCT & Feb lows were in place, but when would we see a rally?


SPX July 15 -   Notice that after July 6th, we dropped to new lows July 7,8,9. Three  days felt like forever, but now they are forgotten.  The rally continues to have follow through.

SPX July-15

Keep the above in mind, and we'll discus it further in the report.

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Below are just a few trade ideas.

We try to find low risk set ups and entries.  To ensure that the risk remains low,  we use reasonable stops and honor them if the trade goes against us. Being wrong is OK, it will happen from time to time.  Staying wrong can damage your account.

WIX - Just broke back above the 50sma again. Your stop would be under the 50sma.


GPRO - re-gained the 50sma, but gapped open. You may want to wait for a break out above the blue dotted line


Continue on...

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Hey, it did happen a few yrs ago, but now that I have your attention 🙂  I need to review something in the GOLD - SILVER -  MINERS section of this report.  First a quick review of the markets.

As expected , Follow through in the DJIA, SPX, NASDAQ, etc

NAZ 7-14 Read More


When the markets are volatile and choppy, it can be difficult to buy and hold a position for anything more than a day or two. We have had some very choppy markets lately.  The good news is that the current  set up that I am seeing in the markets currently may provide an opportunity to 'SHOP'  with  a little less "CHOP".

SPX - The blue lines point to the type of run I think we will see. We may have a pause or two, but I expect higher prices.

SPX 7-13 Read More


This report covers a lot, especially when we get to the precious metals - Gold, Silver, & Miners part, so lets just get right into it.


SPX - It has been a very volatile market, but let me discuss why I am getting signs of a meaningful trade-able low  here (or very soon). 

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Tricky Trading

Are you seeing flashing RED and GREEN lights in your sleep?  You are not alone.  The markets have been volatile and even short term traders may be finding that if you dont lock in immediate gains or at least take partial profits, then next day the trade can flip against you.  lets look at some charts and see where we are currently...

As I write this report, this is where the futures are. A lot of GREEN so far  ( Gold is actually up $4 from the close of 1157.40, I dont know why they show up here as down at 1162.00)


I sent out a cautionary update in the afternoon yesterday,  lets discuss that first ...

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Update July 8

Just a quick note

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Overnight Futures are down - "China is panic crashing" is the word today.  Half of the stocks trading in China were halted to prevent a landslide crash. So far I just see March prices ahead. 3 months ago the SSEC was here.  See the chart of Greed & Fear below.


July 6 chart :  Yesterday I was pointing out several reasons why I would expect to see a reversal higher in the markets.  It appeared that we also found support at the 200sma Monday, but Notice what I wrote on this clip from yesterdays report  (underlined in Red).   It just seemed likely that we would get a stop run below the 200sma and then a reversal higher. LOOK at that CPCE matching OCTOBERS market lows!  (Click to enlarge)


We got the shake out below the 200sma and a reversal. Our futures are down again, will we get another reversal higher today? If so, it could be a buying opportunity, let me explain...

SPX 7-7

Here is the NASDAQ -

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When most people first start trading, they see a market that is running up,up ,up - or falling down, down, down and they want to jump in and get some of that action. What happens? As soon as they make their move the market does a 180 and heads in the opposite direction due to extremes.  We may be at the point that extremes are about to cause some decent bounces. Lets look at some charts.

SPX   July 1 - the original thinking was that this could be a bear flag and become an a-b-c down.

SPX 7-1

SPX - with a lighter volume drop to the 200sma so far , and for other reasons mentioned further in this report, I am thinking we get a bounce here soon.

SPX 7-6

There is a chance that that Bounce is bigger than expected if we get a short covering rally.  Let me explain.

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Lots Of Red So Far

I gathered all of my charts Sunday morning and most of them looked like they were indicating lower prices.  Monday morning , after the Greek Vote,  the color of the day certainly does looks to be RED so far.  Lets take a look at the charts .

Here is a quick glance of the futures as I write


This was my chart for the SPX posted here for July 1- it looked like it might have been a bear flag forming.

SPX 7-1   Read More