Observations and Notes on an Ugly Core vs a Healthy Core

Today I wanted to mention a couple of observations in the Metals markets and the Dollar.    Also -  you may want  to re-read yesterdays report, it came out late in the day and really  not much  has changed. I am still trying to figure out if that HUGE move by GOLD & SILVER Monday indicates the end of a short first daily cycle , and the start of a new one?  If so GOLD would likely POP higher soon  (Jobs report? ) Or, As mentioned,  was that strong slam down & reversal just putting in a daily cycle high and now we drift down to a daily cycle low.   THIS chart was posted to show that idea in GDX 2008 lows.

You want to be in for the second leg up

  2008 Miners    

Some have stated that the recent surge in the DOLLAR  (And it continues overnight)  shows extremely bullish conditions and they fear that GOLD will crumble as the Dollar plows higher.

  Read More

THAT WAS BULLISH

Dec 2, 2014

 The move made by GOLD & SILVER  was very bullish in my opinion. Any pullback from here will be monitored, but likely as BUY opportunities.  The set up is great because it confirmed what I had been mentioning from Nov 7th,  that an ICL  (Those meaningful trade-able lows) was in place. We witnessed MANY shake outs each Friday along the way and FRIDAY,  ( That  1/2 day light volume day?  yeah right) ... SHOOK THE FOUNDATIONS, but the RECOVERY was just as breathtaking if not more so. Lets examine what it means going forward.   This was what happened Before the SWISS VOTE on Gold and what happened AFTER the VOTE was "NO".

 

GOLD - The shake out / Recovery was an explosive bull move.

WHAT HAPPENED    

Gold is currently down $13 as I write...is that concerning? ...

  Read More

DID YOU SEE ‘IT’ THIS TIME?

Nov 25      PART 1   This  first part of this report I wrote at Noon time Tuesday. AUDIO LINK    click here / then click 'download' -  then click "open" & return here to follow charts when you hear the audio    Follow my thinking on this one  :    Earlier I discussed the SWISS BANK REFERENDUM and how some may be cautious going into the weekend with that on the table.  Anyone who has entered trades in the Gold & Silver markets may be planning on Selling Friday, especially if they didn't buy near the lows and cant take a possible "Gap Down" Monday after the vote.  I have pointed out that for the past  3 Fridays People are nervous holding metals positions into the weekend.  I see on several Blogs each week,  "I am NOT holding Miners into the weekend" and then Friday there is a sell off in GOLD only to see that  later it closes GREEN .   Interesting .  Could selling this week be  "The Final Shake Out / Leave many behind move"  before a nice break out higher?  Break out?  Yes, above the 50sma on $GOLD $GDX $GDXJ    GOLD 50sma dance   Read More

Things To Be Aware Of

Nov 25, 2014     AUDIO HERE  http://www.screencast.com/t/X77Ul4hyP    We have a light volume / Holiday shortened trading  week in the U.S. Mkts this week  , so In todays report I  just wanted to point out a few things that are Noteworthy. BRIEFLY let me just mention that the SWISS Referendum. It is a  vote that takes place on Nov 30 deciding 2 things actually. 1.  Whether or not the Swiss National Bank should be barred from further selling of their gold reserves. 2. It also would mandate that they need to more than Double current reserves!  THIS VOTE takes place .....................SUNDAY.  Its important to note because it may influence how you are positioned going into the weekend. I believe the vote could be a "catalyst" for strong POP in Gold Monday or possibly even a sell off into a somewhat early Daily cycle low. If you want my opinion, I think a NO VOTE is expected and so its already baked in.  A YES vote would cause a strong rally , because there are bullish implications ( Swiss Bank Cant sell Gold / Swiss Bank must begin buying / Accumulating Gold  (they currently hold 8% of assets in Gold and the vote would mandate accumulating and holding at least 20% over time). There is more , but that's enough to know for now.  Here is how I am looking at GOLD from day to day. GOLD Please notice the "NOISE" zone. (Click chart)   GOLD NOV 25   It seems that when GOLD drops only $5- $8 ,  I get emails asking for an update.  I am told that accumulation is lightening and this is apparently bearish, etc.  Realistically, GOLD cannot stand at 1 price all week, it has to be allowed to rise & fall...to fluctuate  (likely that could occur until that NOV 30 vote).  Please notice this GOLD NOISE ZONE in the chart above .  Gold in this area need no update, its acting normally.  A break out or break down might need to be addressed. Read More

Am I Comfortable In Shorts Here?

Nov 23  Weekend report (Sunday 5 p.m.)  Someone asked me to let them know when I'm comfortable shorting the Gold/Silver market in the next few days, especially since The $USD Popped Friday.   I'm glad you asked! While there always may be some 'short term' success in a short position from day to day... I still  believe that it will end badly for stubborn shorts in the next few weeks.  If you have been reading my reports for the past 2 weeks then  you know what my thinking has been.  Not only does it remain the same, but I believe we could get an accelerated move upside after a few minor dips in the coming weeks and I would NOT want to be caught in shorts out in those waters.  Let me show you why... Recall that In this  Friday  Nov 7th report here -   http://www.chartfreak.com/2014/11/07/scary-yet-beautiful/    ( And the following  wkend report)  I called the GOLD lows Pre-Market. ( Audio link here : Nov 23 wkend report Click the link, click "Download"  then click "OPEN" & return here to follow along ) SO 2 weeks later, with those LOWS still in place, I want you to note this $GOLD / $USD CHART last May 2014 :   GOLDS MAY LOWS Once the GOLD lows were in, In MAY the dollar popped and GOLD resisted. DID you notice that on Friday this week the $USD popped, and $GOLD went up too? Notice also on the above chart  what Going short on a reversal after the lows lead to pain.  Also ...   Read More

The Friday Illusion Again?

Nov 21, 2014   Freaky Friday  6:00A.M. Will they sell Metals off?  Will they buy it back?  Will Metals break out higher going into the weekend, when less people are likley to BUY & HOLD ? Its hard to know exactly what we will see, but lately Fridays have been exciting in the Metals markets,  so  I got up at 5 a.m. today to see if the Friday shenanigans that occurred in Gold the past 2 Fridays would return.  So far, it seems likely.   Well, if you've read my prior reports, then you know what I am looking for at the end of Friday on the weekly charts, so I will just touch on a few things here and then take a look at a couple of other interesting chart developments elsehwere.  First- this is the "SNAPSHOT" I woke up to...   whats your first thought? 5 30 a.m. It looks like another dollar rally coming , and a Gold slam down, but notice this ....   Read More

I TOLD YOU FED MINUTES ARE FUN!

Nov 20,2014  (also known as The Day After )  Well, Never a dull moment of a Fed Day, huh? Some have written and asked if "Lock out" is out of the way now. I would say no. It may be even more of a Lock Out I cannot imagine that this "SHAKEOUT" was bought by many either. We had a shake out below that critical $1179 area and it again recovered. Did any buy? I know 2 of my readers wrote that he / she bought (knowing in advance that a shake out could happen).  THAT was brave! I imagine that MORE people grabbed DUST, went short , or bailed out. Some wrote and told me that they were advised to add to DUST by other letter writers.   Let me show you how I walk through this roller-coaster ride.  Overnight...how did GOLD react? Charts below.   AUDIO LINK   click here, click download/ click "OPEN"  - return to follow charts GOLD  FOR PERSPECTIVE-  The whole story so far GOLD NOV 20 Amazing how "Orderly" that chart looks in Hindsight, isnt it? so...   Read More

YAY! Its a FED MINUTES DAY!

Nov 19,  Wednesday    Well, Fed minutes, thats always fun!  Why?  Whatever you see happen this morning may be undone by the close.  Or subtle moves may become explosive moves, and I mean in either direction, right?  So Today I'm just doing a this report  to point out a couple of things of interest. Likely you noticed that We have been discussing Metals and Miners a lot lately. That is  because I have wanted to walk you through a day by day bottoming process and show you what I look for. It isnt reassuring to just hear someone say "GO LONG" and you blindly jump in only to get knocked back out. This way we have now already discussed important areas to watch and with the fed minutes we are prepared for any volatility that may follow. I also want to point out a couple of other interesting areas , so lets hit a couple of charts. I will start with reminders to prepare us for Fed Minutes. To hear AUDIO    click here / Then click 'download', then click OPEN . when U hear audio - return to follow the charts here GOLD NOV 7 - Pre mkt I saw a shake out in real time, so  I pointed out an important part of the "Shake Out"  was to recover June 2013 lows of $1179 again on a weekly basis, using this chart in the weekend report. GOLD WKLY   After days of volatility  , we see that... Read More

They Look Really Bullish

Nov 15, 2014 Weekend Report I was driving to a formal event today when suddenly I saw what appeared to be a 'sign' on the side of the road, so I pulled over and there we were...3 of us looking pretty bullish ! For my 2 new friends it came naturally, but for me it has been building for over a week.  If you recall my article written pre-mkt last Friday (Nov 7), I felt that I had seen a legitimate "SHAKE OUT" in the overnight action and said that I was buying in the pre-market . I also mentioned that confirmation would likely come this week and I outlined briefly what I would be looking for.   (If you're new here, you may want to read the articles outlining my expectations. A short one last Friday is here  Scary yet Beautiful    Or   the weekend report Bears get tired too)...  We will now review whether  conditions have been met to increase the likely-hood of a Bottom being put in place Friday Nov 7 for GOLD, Wednesday for Miners.  ALSO I NEED TO BE CLEAR...A Bottom here would not necessarily mean THE BOTTOM at this point, but certainly weeks of gains.  To the Charts! AUDIO version  here  click here then click 'download' & 'OPEN' to play -Then come back & follow the charts Last Weeks chart - Broke 1.5 yrs support and MOST called for a cascade sell off . To me, likely a SHAKE OUT. GOLD WKLY   BEARS had MANY reports of a "Break down in Gold & Imminent crash targets" (I know because 5 of my readers emailed me those reports! ) Some were fearful and others concern for my well being...I thank you for that.  HOWEVER-   Read More

What Were We Expecting? What Are We Seeing?

Nov 14 -  Morning Report   I had a report written by 9:15 A.M. today  showing positive signs in the Gold overnight, which were leading me to believe that the "WEEKLY" charts would end with GOLD putting in another weekly  reversal candle. The action yesterday in Miners was mentioned in yesterdays report and I said that GDX had broken below its recent uptrend line and would need to recover to be a shake out and not a break down. It has.  GDX & GDXJ are both WELL ABOVE their 10sma & Volumes today is strong. So based on all the reports from me for the past week or so- what do you think we are seeing?  Yesterday there was weakness in the Miners &  I posted an update  report saying that DEC 2013 lows had a momentary flush of the lows and 'possibly' we could see the same, but I still was not expecting a PLUNGE lower to $1000 or $800   (YET)  .  I have been saying that I expected that we are at lows and would have a nice rally for at least the next few weeks.   I will now share a couple of the charts that I had for this mornings report, but Gold & Silver have exploded higher and I will tell you what I think we are seeing here and how you can benefit. At 9:00 A.M. I was going to point out that GOLD held prior support & Reversed ( That was Bullish) (Click to enlarge) GOLD 4 right now   As I was finishing my report at 9:15, it started to break higher  (breaking out?) GOLD CURRENTLY NOV 14 Then... Read More