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We have all seen changes take place in various places during our lifetime. The Theme picture highlights how things have changed from your parents day to today, or maybe even your youth to today. Changes can be gradual or sudden, and in the markets we have seen both gradual changes in character to sudden sharp change in market direction and sentiment. Bull to Bear and Bearish to Bullish. As we review our Big Picture of the Markets, we can keep the idea of those types of 'Changes' in mind.
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The 600 Point drop in the DJIA Thursday did not concern me. We caught the lows and I posted this after Thursdays trading...
SPX DAILY - We caught the lows with Decembers reversal and day 6 flipped higher off of the trend line & had nice follow through. I WOULD SAY THAT YOU CAN NOW RAISE STOPS TO THURSDAYS LOWS TO BE SAFE. The blue line resistance can be broken, I just drew it to show where we may stall.
Read MoreAfter a quick market review, Todays report will include a long section reminding us about a recent discussion that we had.
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DJIA - The DOW dropped over 600 points on Thursday, but the chart does not show 'damage ' at this point, though it did drop under the 10sma. It is a trend line back test so far.
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QQQ - Markets gapped down Wednesday, but reversed higher as the day went on. We have expected an ICL, and these lows should hold for a while, but it also may be choppy.
Read More I imagine that with this opening theme picture, you may think that I am going to start by discussing the burning Hemp Legalization topic or something? Well, actually, this report is going to focus on just one thing, and that is The Precious Metals Sector.
Read MoreI would venture to say that by now, after the past several weeks of choppiness and selling off, most if not all here know my thoughts on how things could play out going forward. It does seem that things are lining up now. let's let the charts speak for themselves. Let's get right into it...
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SPX - On Dec 24th, I gave several reasons that this should be the ICL that I have been expecting. I mentioned the PUT / CALL Ratio, Sentiment, etc, so a reversal here is a buy with a stop under the lows...
SPX - Capitulation volume came in on day 38, and that is good timing for a DCL/ ICL. The 3 day bounce is not even near 'Overbought".
This is where it gets important...
Read MoreThe DJIA was up over 1000 points yesterday! Now that's a bounce, in fact, I believe that it was the largest up day in the DJIA....Ever. I want to review what I mentioned in my last report. I had about 6 charts of the General Markets, so if you need to go back and review them all, I had a few in the beginning, and a few at the close...
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I pointed out the Capitulation type volume, 50 % Fib retrace, the 200 weekly MA, etc . and then stated...
After that SPX chart, I wrote this:
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" When I look at the Equity Market Sentiment ( FEAR AND PANIC), and I look at the Puts Call ratio, I Look at the cycle count, the Fib #’s, The number of stocks trading below the 50 & 200sma, and a number of other things etc etc etc, it really looks like we are very close to an ICL. I will have to watch how the first 2 daily cycle play out from there, but a snap back rally seems overdue. A 1-2 month rally in the General Markets would also fit in with a pull back for Gold into the next Gold ICL."
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Wednesday, we saw the DJIA rally up 1000 Points! - Well, that sounds pretty awesome, but it does feel like the Dow has also been giving up about 600 every few days, so is this what we have been waiting for?
Let's discuss how things seem to be LINING UP...
Read MoreMonday was only a 1/2 day of trading, and in my weekend I mentioned that I found something interesting pertaining to the Miners that I thought was important to share at this time, so I want to devote most of this report to that discussion.
Read MoreIt has been reported that past week was the worst December in 10 years for the General Markets. I am hearing that depending on how it ends this week, it could even become the worst drop for the Dow in decades.
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This week I was thinking about the average person and their 401Ks. Why? I went to lunch with 2 friends on Thursday, and they said to me, " I saw the Dow was down 600 points! I know it'll recover, but wow, that is the 3rd time that I saw that recently. This is just normal sideways stuff, right?" Hmmm, Since October, the markets have plummeted and erased all of 2018's gains. Even though most know that the markets are shaky or 'having a rough spell' as my other friend mentioned, I just realized that most do not know that the final quarter of 2018 wiped out all of 2018 and then some. Depending on how their 401k is set up, there may be an awful lot of shock when the next quarterly statement is viewed.
I showed my friends the chart below as of Thursday on my phone and they were shocked. "I thought we were still chopping around at the highs?", my friend Danny said. Let's look at some charts....
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SPX WEEKLY - You can see that last February -April, the sell off was steep, but this one has been 2x that drop. It is now approaching the 200 weekly ma as a possible support. This chart helped my friends to see that the last 3 months of 2018 may have wiped out their entire year of 401k gains and even half of 2017, depending on how they were set up. They were shocked and unaware, despite hearing about a few 600 point drops on the news.
Read MoreWell, it started to get choppy and difficult in various sectors a few weeks ago, and then we went into full sell down mode in October for the General Markets. Miners were sideways and choppy, forming bases but difficult to hold at times, and suddenly many of those bases have been breaking out higher. It has been a rough ride in the Markets, even the crash test dummies are complaining, but today is Friday, the last trading day of the week.
We will be heading into a weekend that is followed by a 1/2 day of trading Monday ( what's the point?) and a closed market Tuesday, so let's take a look at a few things before this week of trading finishes up....
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