Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

Fuel To The Fire

November 18, 2014 /60 Comments/in /by

Nov 18,2014 

   Just a few thoughts here, not much has changed.  I had one reader ask me to review the QQQ's , so I will do that and also use the SPY as an example, but first GOLD. The outworking  of GOLD continue to look and act  like a "Shake out"  & then the final "Lock Out" have occurred.   I actually have people writing me saying they are going to short the 20sma and also will short again at the 50sma.  One asked me  "I added shorts today , when will you be?"   IF THIS IS A LOCK OUT move, shorting is extremely costly. We might get pullbacks here and there on a daily chart, but A short cover rally accompanied by buying can cause a somewhat pause-less rally and the mental damage can cause one to just freeze. So historically, Please look at this Weekly chart ....

 AUDIO CLICK HERE  click here / press download then click OPEN and come back to follow charts

Better to  short this , or buy the dips?

 

GDX ICL

 

Next lets cover Gold as I see it this am ( 6a.m.)...

 

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Signs of a Lock Out

November 17, 2014 /28 Comments/in /by

Monday Nov 17,2014  

Just a Quick memo today, because I think that "The weekend report said it all"   as far as How I am seeing things and what I am thinking. Now we have to wait and see and look for either follow through or other activity that confirms or negates  the things that I mentioned in the weekend report.  Also I see that the report did raise a couple of questions that I noticed in a few emails. "What do I do" and "Can I go long?"  "Should I hold my DUST & sell on a dip & then Buy a pullback?"   Quick review and then a few ideas.

How I feel about DUST & SHORTS. I believe that because of the strong run up  (On a FRIDAY) we saw a possible Shake out AND a possible "LOCK OUT". A LOCK OUT  is when they sell prices down and get people to bail out on longs, run the stops, and even encourage heavy shorting, since they break prior "SUPPORT" levels. Those support levels become resistance,right?  Since $1179 was support turned resistance , but offered No Resistance on Friday...it is looking like a possible "LOCK OUT" now.   $1179 becomes support again. That is when Buyers now have a hard time buying- they have been mentally locked out. They even expect a pullback after Fridays straight up move, so they hold "SHORTS" to sell for at least a little less of a loss.   Here is the chart of GOLD FRIDAY - (Click to enlarge)

 

GOLD NOV 17

That run up plowed right through the "Resistance" of $1179 , and...

 

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They Look Really Bullish

November 15, 2014 /38 Comments/in /by

Nov 15, 2014 Weekend Report

I was driving to a formal event today when suddenly I saw what appeared to be a 'sign' on the side of the road, so I pulled over and there we were...3 of us looking pretty bullish ! For my 2 new friends it came naturally, but for me it has been building for over a week.  If you recall my article written pre-mkt last Friday (Nov 7), I felt that I had seen a legitimate "SHAKE OUT" in the overnight action and said that I was buying in the pre-market . I also mentioned that confirmation would likely come this week and I outlined briefly what I would be looking for.   (If you're new here, you may want to read the articles outlining my expectations. A short one last Friday is here  Scary yet Beautiful    Or   the weekend report Bears get tired too)...

 We will now review whether  conditions have been met to increase the likely-hood of a Bottom being put in place Friday Nov 7 for GOLD, Wednesday for Miners.  ALSO I NEED TO BE CLEAR...A Bottom here would not necessarily mean THE BOTTOM at this point, but certainly weeks of gains.  To the Charts!

AUDIO version  here  click here then click 'download' & 'OPEN' to play

-Then come back & follow the charts

Last Weeks chart - Broke 1.5 yrs support and MOST called for a cascade sell off . To me, likely a SHAKE OUT.

GOLD WKLY

 

BEARS had MANY reports of a "Break down in Gold & Imminent crash targets" (I know because 5 of my readers emailed me those reports! ) Some were fearful and others concern for my well being...I thank you for that.  HOWEVER-

 

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What Were We Expecting? What Are We Seeing?

November 14, 2014 /34 Comments/in /by

Nov 14 -  Morning Report

  I had a report written by 9:15 A.M. today  showing positive signs in the Gold overnight, which were leading me to believe that the "WEEKLY" charts would end with GOLD putting in another weekly  reversal candle. The action yesterday in Miners was mentioned in yesterdays report and I said that GDX had broken below its recent uptrend line and would need to recover to be a shake out and not a break down. It has.  GDX & GDXJ are both WELL ABOVE their 10sma & Volumes today is strong. So based on all the reports from me for the past week or so- what do you think we are seeing?

 Yesterday there was weakness in the Miners &  I posted an update  report saying that DEC 2013 lows had a momentary flush of the lows and 'possibly' we could see the same, but I still was not expecting a PLUNGE lower to $1000 or $800   (YET)  .  I have been saying that I expected that we are at lows and would have a nice rally for at least the next few weeks.   I will now share a couple of the charts that I had for this mornings report, but Gold & Silver have exploded higher and I will tell you what I think we are seeing here and how you can benefit.

At 9:00 A.M. I was going to point out that GOLD held prior support & Reversed ( That was Bullish) (Click to enlarge)

GOLD 4 right now

 

As I was finishing my report at 9:15, it started to break higher  (breaking out?)

GOLD CURRENTLY NOV 14

Then...

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Nov 13 UPDATE

November 13, 2014 /2 Comments/in /by

2:45 P.M. Nov 13.   (I apologize for the late "Alert" , the auto Email alert system apparently was down when I posted this)

 

Many have asked that I occasionally show what I watch during the day  and post here.  I don't want to watch and report on every little wiggle, but there are interesting things to look at . Especially since this mornings report I showed a possible stab at a lower low still fitting the cycle counts & Elliot wave ,etc ...so let me show you quickly what I am watching.  it is more bearish for Gold Miners, but...so far GDX and GDXJ  do remain above the 10sma on a daily chart  (not shown) .  So these are the intra-day wiggles that I look at.  More charts / less words here so I can post quickly .

GOLD looks fine  (so far) ...many shake outs , but regains support areas.  (Click to enlarge)

GOLD AGAIN

 

If  "MINERS LEAD"..are they holding up ok?  They remain above the 10sma so far,  BUT...

 

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Did you say a “Core” position?

November 13, 2014 /16 Comments/in /by

Nov 13, 2014

 Not a lot to say today- I got about 80 replies to the recent request for input on a better designed website. I tried to reply to each and every one. I THINK I may have accidentally permanently deleted one of them, if you didn't hear back from me, I apologize- I DID read it before that happened. You can even resend it and I'll get back to you, but I spent a good deal of time replying and thanking everyone for such positive feedback.  Pat yourselves on the back, what a Kind group of people are reading here!

 AUDIO LINK HERE  click here

Now..A CORE? I had a couple people ask me why I dont discuss my "Core" holdings vs trades. I will when I have some, but until things start trending, I cut the core! Maybe some ENERGY or  COAL stocks are a little more BUY & HOLD  at this time. Some have begun trending.  And  since the COAL lows, earnings were released late OCT- it would seem that any bad news is baked in and upside seems to be steady  (Above the moving averages. Lets take a quick look...

 

BTU - recommended yesterday at 10 A.M.

BTU

1 .5 Hrs later

BTU 2

Also ...

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Nervous? Heres a different perspective

November 12, 2014 /15 Comments/in /by

Mid day update /  Miners selling off  writing at 12:05 p.m.

When I start seeing a sell off in Miners after I feel that I've done all my homework , I dont panic - I just need to look and see what might be happening. What (if anything) should limit the sell off? Is it normal? is it ugly or extreme?  So lets review a couple of quick charts that I threw together and see where we might be .  First off, GOLD is not selling off , but are Miners leading? What do I look for with GOLD?

 

GOLD  (Click to enlarge)

 

GOLD NOV 12

 

So Gold is holding up, what about Miners? Are they shaking some out, or are they about to collapse?...

 

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It isnt pretty, but the set up seems to be

November 12, 2014 /8 Comments/in /by

Nov 12   10:00 A.M. Eastern  

 

  I am pretty focused on the Metals & Miners recently, but If you missed the run up in COAL and wanted to get in, it may be setting up for another leg up after a recent pause. These 3 charts show that the recent pullback is nearing support and could offer a low risk entry, because your stop is safely below support areas.

WLT

 

And also ....

 

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Reminder: Not All Bottoms Look The Same

November 11, 2014 /29 Comments/in /by

Nov 10, 2014 

     Mondays action was what ... Scary?  Yes, scary if you had a long  position.  If you didnt have a position, maybe it was time to take one!  Was this another chance to buy in the Area near the lows ? ...or...Was today a chance to go short for the coming plunge?   I ask that because I know many  (not here necessarily) viewed today as "Weakness".    'The Bulls have no strength , no follow through, No buyers and the Bears are still alive and well.'  And while I have to admit that that COULD be the case, I doubt it.  Bottoming is often called a "Bottoming Process" because the battle of the bulls & bears doesnt allow a sell off or a rally - At First. If you examine previous "bottoms",  you'll see that many act just like this before they take off upside. If it's a Real Bottom, that battle often drops off the New buyers, and leaves them behind.

 AUDIO LINK CLICK HERE     AUDIO LINK

Look at prior lows for Example:  The reversal candle made the lows, then the next week sold at least 1/2 way down that candle

 

GOLD LOWS

 

So what we see happening also happened at June 2013 , Dec 2013  lows, May 2014 lows ...Now

 

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