Author Archive for: Alex - Chart Freak
Entries by Alex - Chart Freak
August 1st – Fed Day – Fed Up
SPX - I am still expecting the General Markets to begin rolling over.
Even with great earnings beats that GOOG and AMZN had, the NASDAQ fell for a couple of days. AAPL beat too, but I still think that the markets are going to have a hard time resisting a drop from here.
Tuesday July 31st – The Triggerfish
In anticipation of a change in the way a market sector is moving, we sometimes start looking for a possible catalyst or a trigger that will cause that change in direction.
NASDAQ - The NASDAQ was strong and moved to new highs. Everyone was really bullish, but I was expecting a drop. The Trigger seems to have been 'earnings'. We saw FB, NFLX, TWTR among others disappoint, and even though AMZN and GOOG blew away their forecast estimate, it was not enough to prevent the drop that we are now seeing. Friday and Monday took back 3 weeks of gains. We could get a 1/2 cycle low bounce here, but we may not.
WEEKEND JULY 28 – Please Hold
SPX WEEKLY - I have been discussing the timing on a daily chart, and feel that we are due to drop soon, into a dcl. This may be the short term top.
Friday July 27th – “Calculating Route!”
Have you ever heard those words while you were driving along using your GPS?
Pick An Emoji
Talk about a love / hate relationship and you're talking about being a disappointment during earnings. They love you when you perform well, but it's a different emotion when your earnings 'miss'.
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Facebook released earnings on Wednesday night, and it was set to open about $50 lower. We'll just have to wait and see how things shake out during the regular markets hours, but this is where it would open at this rate. Talk about "filling that gap at $170"!
On to the markets...
Golden Surprise
GOLD DAILY – Gold put in a reversal on Friday. Look at the steep drop of the last 3-4 weeks, but my propitiatory indicators are not dropping. That is BULLISH, we should be at or close to the lows.
Beautiful At The Top
I am not saying that we are at THE TOP, but I have been saying that we could be due for A top. One thing that I have found to be true when trading the markets is this: It is always Doom & Gloom right before a bottom is in place, and Everything is Beautiful when we are at or near a top. Right now the buzz is all about bullish earnings, and how you need to be buying the stock market bull run. Well, we were buying at a dcl 3 weeks ago, but now? I discussed my thoughts on Googles earnings yesterday, so lets look at the charts and see what they are telling us...
I'm going to start with GOOG, because all the buzz on Twitter and in trading forums Monday was how it shot up $70 after hrs on Monday, and now GOOG & the NASDAQ would just blast off higher. People were saying that you need to just "buy this Bull Market". I wrote last week and in Monday nights report a bit of a different take on things, including Googles $60 Gap after hrs...
GOOG - I used this chart to show that it GAPPED OPEN last October after a long sideways chop, and then it just stalled, went sideways for weeks, and drifted down to fill the gap over a month later. It didn't start a giant rally then, and may not this time due to the 'timing' of things.
GOOG - Tuesday, Yes Google gapped up but it formed a Black topping candle. Black candles at the top of a move usually exhaust or end the move. I think that GOOGLE is going to stall and drift or drop soon.
Now let's look at the rest of the markets...
Monday Review
...had their earnings release and it Popped $50 to $80 after hrs
GOOGLE - This was GOOGLE ( Alphabet) at the close. Notice that it has formed a long choppy consolidation all year long. With the earnings release, a break out could happen Tuesday.
So I Caught the POP after hours on this chart. It is a 6% break out if it holds overnight, but tomorrow on your charts, it will be a GAP OPEN.
There are a few things that I wanted to point out with GOOGLES earnings and the affect on the NASDAQ...
Go Ahead – Make My Day
Lets review the markets , and then I will discuss the purpose of the Theme Pic
SPX- I have been saying since the DCL that one should let their long positions ride, use stops that should be raised along the way, and I would assess things as we get to day 15...
