Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

January 8th – Mondays Pops

January 8, 2019 in /by

In The last quarter of 2018, various areas of the markets began drying up and going stale.  We saw the equity markets & Oil crashing down and  many good set ups that would form would quickly fall apart.   Trades in Miners and some of the Medical Marijuana companies were playing out ok, but there was definitely a choppy vibe in the GDX & GDXJ area too, into December.

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 Suddenly, we have seen  bottoms develop  (temporary or longer term bottom remains to be seen), and along with these bottoms are set ups  that are finally working out, and many are working out very well.  Let's take a look at Mondays action...

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REMINDER:  At the end of December,  IN MY REPORT, I mentioned that this reversal candle on day 39,  was a buy in technical analysis, with a stop under that days lows.  If an ICL is in place (Day 1) , those lows will not be broken for weeks.   So far,  this is playing out well.  You can see that I said that " This is a BUY" in that December report.

 

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Weekend Report- Things Gradually Change

January 5, 2019 in /by

We have all seen changes take place in various places during our lifetime.  The Theme picture highlights how things have changed from your parents day to today, or maybe even your youth to today.  Changes can be gradual or sudden, and in the markets we have seen  both gradual changes in character to sudden sharp change in market direction and sentiment.  Bull to Bear and Bearish to Bullish.  As we review our Big Picture of the Markets,  we can keep the idea of  those types  of 'Changes' in mind.

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The 600 Point drop in the DJIA Thursday did not concern me.  We caught the lows and  I posted this after Thursdays trading...

SPX DAILY   -  We caught the lows with  Decembers reversal and day 6 flipped higher off of the trend line & had nice follow through.   I WOULD SAY THAT YOU CAN NOW RAISE STOPS TO THURSDAYS LOWS TO BE SAFE.  The blue line resistance can be broken,  I just drew it to show where we may stall.

 

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Fridays Friendly Reminder

January 4, 2019 in /by

After a quick market review, Todays report will include a long section reminding us about a recent discussion that we had.

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DJIA - The DOW dropped over 600 points on Thursday, but the chart does not show 'damage ' at this point, though it did drop under the 10sma.  It is a trend line back test so far.

 

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Wednesday Jan 2, 2019

January 2, 2019 in /by

 I imagine that with this opening theme picture, you may think that I am going to start by discussing the burning Hemp Legalization topic or something? Well, actually, this report is going to focus on just one thing, and that is The Precious Metals Sector.

 

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Dec 29th – The Weekend Check Up

December 29, 2018 in /by

I would venture to say that by now, after the past several weeks of choppiness and selling off, most if not all here know my thoughts on how things could play out going forward.   It does seem that things are lining up now.  let's let the charts speak for themselves.    Let's get right into it...

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SPX - On Dec 24th, I gave several reasons that this should be the ICL that I have been expecting.  I mentioned the PUT / CALL Ratio, Sentiment, etc, so a reversal here is a buy with a stop under the lows...

 

SPX -  Capitulation volume came in on day 38, and that is good timing for a DCL/ ICL.   The 3 day bounce is not even near  'Overbought".

 

 

This is where it gets important...

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Friday December 28th- The Bounces

December 28, 2018 in /by

 

DJIA -  We had our 1000+ Point bounce

 

 

I had been discussing the Fib Retracement , sentiment, timing for an ICL, Put Call ratios, etc, so we knew that we were due

DJIA - I mentioned that it could be choppy or V-Bottom,   but the lows should hold,  so you can buy the reversal or buy it if it dips, with a stop under the new lows.

DJIA -  The Dow dropped 600 points, and recovered by the close.  So...

 

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December 27th – Things Are Lining Up

December 27, 2018 in /by

The DJIA was up over 1000 points yesterday!  Now that's a bounce, in fact, I believe that it was the largest up day in the DJIA....Ever.  I want to review what I mentioned in my last report.  I had about 6 charts of the General Markets, so if you need to go back and review them all, I had a few in the beginning, and a few at the close...

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I pointed out the Capitulation type volume, 50 % Fib retrace, the 200 weekly MA, etc . and then stated...

 

After that SPX chart, I wrote this: 

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" When I look at the Equity Market Sentiment  ( FEAR AND PANIC), and I look at the Puts Call ratio, I Look at the cycle count, the Fib #’s,  The number of stocks trading below the 50 & 200sma, and a number of other things etc etc etc, it really looks like we are very close to an ICL.   I will have to watch how the first 2 daily cycle play out from there, but a snap back rally seems overdue.    A 1-2 month rally in the General Markets would also fit in with a pull back for Gold into the next Gold ICL."

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Wednesday,  we saw the DJIA rally up 1000 Points!  - Well, that sounds  pretty awesome, but it does feel like the Dow   has also been giving up about 600  every few days, so is this what we have been waiting for?

 

Let's discuss how things seem to be  LINING UP...

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Dec 22 Weekend Report- 401K Damage

December 22, 2018 in /by

It has been reported that past week was the worst December in 10 years for the General Markets.  I am hearing that depending on how it ends this week, it could even become the worst drop for the Dow in decades.

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This week I was thinking about the average person and their 401Ks.  Why?   I went to lunch with 2 friends on Thursday, and they said to me, " I saw the Dow was down 600 points! I know it'll recover, but wow,  that is the 3rd time that I saw that recently. This is just normal sideways stuff, right?"     Hmmm, Since October,  the markets have plummeted and erased all of 2018's gains.   Even though most know that the markets are shaky or 'having a rough spell' as my other friend mentioned,  I just realized that most do not know that the final quarter of 2018 wiped out all of 2018 and then some.   Depending on how their  401k is set up,  there may be an awful lot of shock when the next quarterly statement is viewed.

 I showed my friends  the chart below as of Thursday on my phone and they were shocked.  "I thought we were still chopping around at the highs?", my friend Danny said.   Let's look at some charts....

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SPX WEEKLY -  You can see that last February -April, the  sell off was steep, but this one has been 2x  that drop.  It is now approaching the 200 weekly ma as a possible support.  This chart helped my friends to see that the last 3 months of 2018 may have wiped out their entire year of 401k gains and even half of 2017, depending on how they were set up.  They were shocked and unaware, despite hearing about a few 600 point drops on the news.

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