The Big Picture

Lets review last weeks market action by stepping back and looking at the bigger picture.

SPX – This long consolidation has left price right where it was in Jan.  The MACD is dropping steadily on the weekly. This is a reversal candle so we may see a bounce this week. 

 SPX DAILY – We could bounce here, but the markets have not had any follow through lately. A break below July lows of 2044.02  is bearish. We will monitor this. 

The NASDAQ has been a little stronger, but look at the weekly MACD here too. It also looks like it could bounce this week with a wkly reversal candle in place, but overall this looks like more downside is likely.

$RUT – The Russell small caps are actually in a downtrend now. 

I can see possible bullish set ups in both the IWC & IWM, but they would need to prove themselves first,  with the bearish set ups in the DJIA, SPX, and NAZ,  they will likely break down in the near future.

$USD – Back in JUNE and JULY I was calling for a top when the dollar had a run back higher. I saw weakness internally, while many others called for ” $1.20 strong dollar”.  In July I was looking at it this way, saying that this would allow the Precious Metals to run higher as the dollar dropped.

$USD WKLY  today – We seem to have put in a top now. The 10WMA is still supporting the dollar, but the MACD is rolling over. I expect more downside.

$WTIC–  I have pointed out this wedge for a while now.  This squeeze play has to be done. We are at the apex and many Oil/Energy stocks have bottomed and moved higher.  I think this indicates that OIL is about to put in trade able lows.

$NATGAS – THIS has been moving sideways for weeks and has been moving within a triangle set up. This is more of a bullish set up than a bearish, so watch for a break out this week.  I expect it will be higher.

GOLD SILVER & MINERS

GOLD BIG PICTURE – interesting to note that GOLD pulled back 50% of its Bull run so far and has bottomed.

$GOLD –  I posted this chart Thursday, mentioning that GOLD could drop to $1100 to shake out new buyers.  The chart would still be bullish and could look like this.

As of Friday, the daily chart had us a little overbought and up against the B.B.’s.  I noticed that we did this in March and dropped to the 20sma, but not all cycles repeat exactly.   I expect Gold to be much stronger coming out of these lows with the current C.O.T. Readings and negative sentiment. 

Golds weekly chart saw us capped at the 10WMA,  in the past this was temporary.

SILVER –  Broke out and has reversed , now trading under the 50sma. Volume at the break out was strong and the pull back has been light. This remains bullish.  The WEEKLY SILVER chart shows a swing low in place on a weekly basis.  Silver often leads Gold.

GDX WKLY– this is also a bullish set up and the big picture looks good.  A Weekly Swing Low is in place in Miners.

GDX DAILY – Volume selling was extremely light Friday.  GDXJ also has very light volume.  Sellers drying up already?  Further drop to the 10sma wouldn’t harm this chart, but the volume is so light it may hold up and go sideways.

  Not much has changed in the markets. I think that we could see a bounce in the equity markets, but I still feel they are going to continue to sell off. The OIL & NATGAS charts were bullish , even though they look as bearish as ever, with OIL selling off for the last 8 weeks.  My thoughts on GOLD,SILVER, & MINERS has not changed.  I love the set up and various features mentioned in many of my past reports,  but I still advise people to honor their stops. That is always good discipline.

We’ll see what Monday throws our way, and I will be looking at charts for trade set ups since I expect the pullback in Metals and even energy to run its course soon. Thanks for being here and happy trading.

~ALEX