Stretched

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When dealing with Cycles, there are times that they are getting s-t-r-e-t-c-h-e-d, and other times when the count has simply started over.  Right now in the Precious Metals markets we are facing that situation, so lets discus that further after we review some other areas of the markets.

 SPX – more sideways action. Yesterdays rally attempt sold off

 

 

SPX 8-5

Lets look at the NASDAQ…

 

It also rallies and sold off into the close

NASDAQ 8-5

 

I would have expected a break to new highs before eventually rolling over, but the markets continue to struggle sideways.  Will the JOBS REPORT FRIDAY give them the needed boost?  We will see, but please look up stocks like  AAPL, TWTR, DIS, GMCR, RYN, TSLA, TWX,  ETSY  . Here are a couple of them below.

AAPL

DIS

 

GMCR ( Green Mtn Coffee is down 30% in premarket) .  So things arent all rosy, and even though NFLX hit new highs, this looks like a temporary topping candle.  Maybe the markets will pull back on The JOBS Report? 

NFLX

I saw this chart of the VIX and thought to myself,  “THAT looks like it wants to rally and that should send the markets lower.”  The markets have usually rallied on the JOBS REPORT, but things look a bit different with this Vix reversal.   If the markets drop, will the Metals finally POP?

VIX 8-5

The Dollar has been strong for a long time, and the markets have gone up with it.  Also Metals have dropped with the stronger dollar. This is the dollar.  Is it going to BREAK OUT?

USD 8-5

 

Zooming in, I see the dollar as stalling at resistance and possibly ready to drop lower.

USD 8-5 (2)

 

$WTIC –  OIL has been failing & Falling rather relentlessly, but it may finally be ready to turn higher.  ( Reminder: I have repeatedly cautioned against jumping the gun and entering below the 10sma)

WTIC 8-5

The weekly WTIC looks SQUEEZED –  these usually break out with zest.  There actually may be an ENERGY trade in the near future.

WTIC WKLY 8-5

 

NATGAS

NATGAS

 

 

GOLD , SILVER & MINERS

 

What else can we say? 

 

GOLD is stretched .  I actually liked that GDX hit new lows , because I personally DO NOT think that we started a new Daily Cycle and new lows is good for a couple of reasons.  I will explain.

GOLD 8-5

 

 

 

I looked at this GOLD CHART yesterday and found it encouraging. I pointed out this possible L-O-N-G  Stretched Cycle into the March ICL.  Notice how it played out in MARCH.

1. A slam down day  (March 6)   and then  2 weeks of downward sloping/ sideways type  drop day after day. 

2. We now have a slam down day (June 20)and  2 weeks a downward/ sideways  sloping day by day move.

GOLD 8-4

YESTERDAY I saw GDX hit new lows and MANY in other blogs & Forums immediately switched to short to “Catch the coming bloodbath”.  Many said that a break of support would cause a waterfall sell off.    I Looked at HUI& XAU – they broke 2 days ago and  No bloodbath so …

What happens if we go higher?   They’ll have to cover.  A short cover rally.

$HUI 8-5

 

GDX at new lows is actually good looking on a weekly chart. We had a week 19 low 2 weeks ago (early-ish) and now we have a week 21 low.  If we reverse by Friday it looks like other lows.

GDX WKLY

 Will the JOBS REPORT do the opposite this time?  Drop the markets and rally the metals? Look at the set up in GOLD, and then look at DIS, AAPL, the TRAN, the SOX, etc etc .  It is possible. 

Is it also possible that DUST runs to $50-$60 and Miners and Gold do drop fast after the JOBS REPORT too?  Yes.  I am looking at everything and all I can do for myself is sit tight and wait for what I know will an exceptionally profitable rally in Miners.   The current set up so BULLISH.  It has not been this strongly bullish in many many years.  Patience will pay off,  I personally am not going to attempt to short this.  

 

GDX TRIGGER CHART-   This is just a chart that I used to use in sideways moves at bottoms.  It was for both an anticipated DCL or ICL timing wise in GDX Cycles.   If you were expecting those lows and we were going sideways, I found that I would jump in & maybe get stopped out-  so how to avoid that jittery sideways stuff?  (  Now I simply say wait for a trend-line break above & a move above the 10sma,  but I had developed this chart) …

 

Notice the sideways lows. You only buy when BOTH bottom 2 indicators shown recover the magenta horizontal  line  ( Green arrows) .  Both must recover .   As you can see, it worked well to catch a move off of the lows early, just not the exact lows.  Notice too that It has not triggered here yet.  It wont until we move off of the lows.

GDX TRIGGER

 

It is not possible to know in advance how this will all unfold after the release of the JOBS report,  but I will say this… the last 2 Fridays were Golden Fridays  🙂

GOLD FRIDAY

 

~ALEX

 

P.S.  As you know, often not much changes from the Thursday report to Friday morning, so I may not have a report Friday.  We’ll see what happens after the release of the Jobs report. I will cover all the weeks events in the weekend report. Have a great Friday & weekend.

92 replies
  1. JDWM
    JDWM says:

    I have an idea that Jobs Report will be weak, $ will reverse, USTs will surge, Euro and commodities will surge. On verra.

        • JDWM
          JDWM says:

          From $640 in 2007 to 75 CENTS. Seems to me the recent crash was coming due to the Greek mkt closed (for repairs…). If this is indeed a false breakdown of NBG and it retakes the 50 then the 200 it really could be a pension gold mine.

          If…

          On verra.

  4. Rube
    Rube says:

    Alex, GDX chart: now if I could only figure what those indicators are which are to cross the magenta lines!

          • Maria
            Maria says:

            ps. u … this … better b around in 2 yrs when i can play…. im bummed missing out on the fun.. ;o)

          • Maria
            Maria says:

            idk if you saw my jdst chart last night CHARTFREEEEEk .. but .. it APPEARS to be following at EW diagonal pattern to perfection.. including the ‘throw over’ of E… and you see that ‘pattern progression’ indicated that price would fall down after completion..
            not prediction… but .. “progression of a pattern” is what foretells what may happen… this is ‘pre’ (as in not post) ;o) — knowledge – well according to my beautiful brown eyes …. [so im told] ;o) HA !!!
            (insert van morrisons Brown Eyed Girl clip)

          • Maria
            Maria says:

            ohhh… annnnd the way those Cycles stretch… sounds strikingly similar to how waves can “extend” to fit the move….
            …. just trying to understand these things……… curious cat that i am… not trying to pick a fight at all .. (not that i would mind rolling around in the dirt) LMAO!!

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Not yet, but this is what I’ve seen…

        When I stopped using that chart it was because for the most part , over 80% of the time the GDX had just crossed above the 10sma when both indicators triggered. .The other times it was just about to move over the 8sma.

        SO to make it easy, I just started saying “Its safer to wait for a cross above the 10sma” .

        Right now we are up against the 8sma on the GDX, a cross over that may be enough, but above the 10sma is usually safe.

  6. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Looking at charts of ABX ( up 6%) GG( mentioned yesterday) , and NEM…it looks like the drop in GDX yesterday MAY have been a shake out.

    GG & ABX now have MACD cross up

  8. marinho
    marinho says:

    very good reasoning Alex, I feel I am ready to nibble and actually picked up shares in GDX, GG, EGo and several Canadian juniors.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hey Marinho

      Its hard to be sure with JOBS REPORT tomorrow. If the Dollar takes off higher we could get a 4th daily cycle in the metals and more downside, but I feel that yesterdays break of the lows in GDX lured in a lot of shorts.

      If they start covering today? We get a pop over that 10sma and start moving higher too.

      SO basically, honor your stops 🙂

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I will post it, but as mentioned in a comment below , it is more often than not occurring when the GDX moves above the 10sma.

      I dont think It would cross higher until next week , if the GDX keeps climbing, but I will post as it does reach those areas.

    • Alan
      Alan says:

      IAG is only one of my miners that did not stop out. I plan to add to the position once GDX moves above 10sma.

  15. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    If you have time…LOOK UP THESE CHARTS. I am seeing a LOT of breaking down going on in this Bull Market. Tomorrows DATA could be crucial for the Equity Markets and Precious metals.

    AMCX, GMCR, TSLA, TWC ( time warner) , PHH, XBI ( Biotech ETF)
    and
    FIT & MBLY beat earnings ….down

    Fit blew their estimates away= Price is now down 13%

    DOW JONES chart & Viacom chart below (refresh)

  17. Conrad
    Conrad says:

    I’ve watched 3 seasons of Vikings waiting for Gold/Miners to resolve. Lets hope it gets a move on before Season 4 is aired 🙂

  18. Cason
    Cason says:

    Is this it? Time to take off? I am showing GDX and GDXJ both exactly 2 cents below 10-day SMA, each having popped above that level for a few minutes earlier. I know we have Jobs tomorrow!! ADP came in light but they do not always correlate. Considering holding one DUST call as insurance into the report, knowing that if metals take off, it would devalue quickly.
    If miners do push higher after jobs, they would close the week above the 10 day that we have been following.

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        I decided to solve the problem by throwing more money at it. That usually works (sarcasm). Figured if we are up tomorrow the extra I make from the additional calls while pay for the ‘insurance’ I took out. Crossing fingers…

  19. Ken
    Ken says:

    Alex,
    If it looks like GDX will close above the 10sma will you be adding with GDP staring you in the face tomorrow morning ?

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