Melting Gold

Just a quick note for today ...

ICL vs DCL  –  They look a little different when you step back and look at them.    I actually started  writing earlier to say that we may only be dropping into a DCL  by the looks of it, and I was going to explain why  & what that would mean ( Shorting in a couple of days) .  THAT would mean that we could then pop for a few days in a new daily cycle (4th) and roll over into a real deep ICL .  As I was writing  the selling picked up, and it is now finally starting to take on the appearance of an ICL.  We shall see and let me explain…

(I started to write this below content  around 9:40)

With regard to the Sell  off  of Gold  & Miners  at this point. I mentioned in past reports that I am thinking we arent just dropping into a DCL because of the COT #s, but possibly an ICL.  We would then rally higher and have a few more daily cycles higher and then could even plunge into that final drop in Gold to sub $1000,  if Gold must go there.

At this point, I wanted to point out something that usually happens at ICL’s that I havent seen yet   (Edit: may be seeing now) .  Gold and Miners usually plunge steeply , away from their 9 SMA in an ICL, and then they flip back to it shortly after.  You look back and see a gap between price and the 9sma at ICLs.   This often all takes place in a couple of days, and doesnt happen as noticeably at DCL’s.  I do not see thathere yet.  (Edit again: Maybe today it is starting).

I Noticed that even the “Mild ICL’s of May 2014 ( not shown) and the relatively mild ICL March 2015 still had that sharp fast drop and recovery, putting a gap between the price and 9sma.  Notice that DCL’s dont show that as much. Are we forming just a DCL and a 4th daily cycle will follow?

I was posting this to point out that I do not really see that here, so maybe this time frame is just sending us into a DCL, and we will run up higher for a few days and roll over into the ICL that should be shorted,   that will be deep.   (Edit:)  As I am writing , however,  the selling has picked up into the type of drop that I was looking for at an ICL.  We should now see price pull away from the 9 sma , leaving that  gap between price and the 9sma, and then a snap back rally .  This may finish its course next week and not today.

As I am writing, the selling seems to be picking up into the final drop.  GDX was $15.90 when I started writing this a.m., it is now selling off nicely at $15.75)  Today is day 29 for Gold, so a low can occur at any time, but most likely next week.  My advice is ‘Dont jump the gun’, these down days can cut sharply allow the selling to take place. 

GLD –   I just captured the 2 charts in this report  , Close to  10:15 a.m. now ).   I was writing to say that the slow sell off doesnt look like an ICL, it looks more like a DCL.  Now however,  It may now start to look like an ICL. The chart below is putting in that gap between price and the 9sma that I look for!

We may have entered the final flush, and it could get deep.  See the charts above and notice that sometimes you get 2 or 3 deep days.  Even a GAP ,GAP GAP down.     Lately, the selling was so slow that I was starting to think that we’d get a DCL and run up for days, so I wasnt recommending going short. I apologize for that, I know some were playing DUST and JDST.     It was looking rather mild on the downside and I started to feel we were just going to put in a DCL & Flip higher. Then an ICL would come next.   Instead, now likely entering an ICL,  at this point DUST usually spikes strongly , but for how many days?  Now I cant recommend jumping in short, because its not as low risk   (but they do often see 2 or 3 days of selling steeply in GDX, and spiking in DUST for 2 or 3 days -As seen below).   This could last for a couple of days, but I cant recommend action.  You could Enter at your own risk/ experience. I will patiently wait for the lows .

Again, I saw that COT with Smart money closing short positions and strongly felt that this is an ICL time period. A large summer rally should follow.  It does seem to be playing out now as originally expected .  I am preparing to go long, probably next week.   Maybe I threw off those going short with my conviction for the coming rally, again I apologize.   I believe the coming Rally will be a very good one to take long positions in.. The first 2 daily cycles should be profitable.   I hope this update is at least helpful, and I’ll cover a bit more in the weekend report, since the lows should be closely ahead.

~ALEX

P.S.  Golds Nov lows are $1130.40.   I saw $1129.60 , so they broke it down.   I am watching for a stop run?  Break down & Sell off?   Break down & recovery ?