First we look at the charts and see what we can learn from recent price action. Short term indecision can cause volatility or lack of direction and we see that lately. Today at 2 p.m. will we get some additional information from a Fed Release that pushes various market sectors one way or the other into a trending move? For Gold, Silver , & Miners I am thinking outside the box a bit today . Lets see what the charts are indicating…
SPX – The MACD looks to be weakening at this point ( weaker MACD & lack of follow through so far).
NASDAQ– Each reversal & pop higher has died so far.
USD – It almost seems like The Dollar has been waiting on the Fed. It is pushing resistance.
$WTIC– still healthy , I see OIL as Bullish and expect higher prices. Its boring people on a daily basis.
NATGAS- currently bullish (inventory report Thursday)
XLE – needs to push forward above the 10sma now and it is very oversold.
XLE – longer term a drop into an ICL may not be so bad, if we are to remain in a bullish manner.
GOLD,SILVER, & MINERS
It looked like GOLD put in a DCL on day 24, making this day 7. Being left translated, this would now roll over. At this point I have to question this count, because SILVER & the Miners have not responded at all. This is how GOLD looks currently.
Think outside the box a little. If SILVER & MINERS havent Bounced at all, maybe we dont have a true DCL? Lets look at things another way.
GOLD – What if the FED drops Gold today and it goes below day 24? Is it the start of the next steep drop to a DCL? Not if it recovers . That fake out would get many to go short, but it may just pt in a Day 33 DCL and this time SILVER & the MINERS pop too?
Picture this: We start to drop & many go short because Gold couldnt reach the 50sma. It drops below day 24 and rallies next week.
SILVER – It hasnt done a thing, but Silver Miners are Popping. This leads me to believe that Silver may want to pop, a DCL may not be in yet.
MINERS – GDX has not bounced even a tiny bit with the supposed day 24 DCL in Gold. It is already oversold and in a wedge, it looks like it wants to move higher from a technical view. Some Miners are Popping , see FSM, AG, PAAS, AKG, etc.
GDX_ using technical analysis, GDX looks like it wants higher price, not a drop from here. I look forward to seeing how this resolves.
Today is the FED RELEASE day. GDX honestly looks like it wants to pop for many reasons. I mentioned that maybe that tiny gap would fill Monday , and it almost filled yesterday. If GDX just sells off from here into a DCL , it has a long way to go, but I’m thinking that we get a bounce higher first. If so, I might go short at the 50sma , as I mentioned last week, but I have to see how things play out first before I make that decision.
You can see that it would help to get a little more information in some of these markets and I think we get that at 2 p.m. today. On a Fed Wednesday , the initial reaction is not always the next sustained move. Many times I have seen things sell off or Rally from 2 -3:30, and then change direction into the close. Thursday morning can be volatile too, so I try to be patient and let things shake out a bit. I look forward to seeing how we close today.
~ALEX
Sideways Moves 
It Looks A Little Mixed
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Agreed….good day to be patient to see how it all plays out. No positions for me till Thurs.
Crude with a strong move up overnight. I expect our energy stocks to get a lift at the open. Alex, what are your 4 favorite energy plays currently? Based on the way things have played out lately.
Tough call Bill, many arent acting the way I like to see them. I like CLNE right here & now.
As a trader: Currently just holding UWTI/UGAZ, SZYM, CLNE, REN for energy, but I may not hold it all after today.
LGCY/ REXX look interesting here and a few others held up in the sell off., like OAS, WPX, VLO, LPI , etc
Got it! I am seeing three different patterns in the energy stocks. They are not all acting the same, some have held up better than others during this down turn.
I have the same question as Bill.
Most if not all of the energy stocks we are watching are Below the 200, 50, 20, and 9 SMA’s, most are oversold via daily stochs so ……… ? How do you know which stocks will be stronger than others if oil runs up ?
I’m thinking the ones that really got beat down are beat down (WRES, GDP) for other reasons than WTIC pricing. I’m staying away for now. I will get into ones that are holding up better. However, I like ones that are at double bottoms as a low risk entry. I took SD on the double bottom entry. The others I took are at lower trend lines and moving up, EXXI, REN, DQ, RIG, SOL
Couldn’t help but scalping BIDU. Now I’m done! This is a real beast!!
REXX interesting action…
GDP appears headed for the abyss.
Does anyone have news on GDP? I looked all over but couldn’t find anything. That wasn’t technicals, that was bankruptcy, I mean this move has been nasty. Glad I wasn’t involved, cross that one off the watch list forever.
That was crazy! Regained 50 day.
NG broke through the resistence – so now what are we looking at as next profit taking area Alex? 2.96-2.98..to lighten up
If you want to lock in profit ( especially if you are invested heavily) thats fine.
For myself,, I expect a run higher. True that tomorrow is inventory report and that may cause a reaction 1 way or the other, but my original thought is a run higher.
Refresh for my chart, see the break / test / run up ( and the first run up had a slam down red day after the test. Maybe we get that on inventory report?)
That looks real good! Thanks Alex – yes I am heavy in UGAZ – I might have to take 1/2 off the table to sleep well 🙂 thanks again for everything you do !
Ur welcome, and if ur really heavy UGAZ, you may at least want to lighten a bit for the report tomorrow in case it dips back to the 10sma like it did on the first run up, but I do think this goes higher.
Both crude and natural gas have reversed lower today from the strong start.
Nice chart
I’m looking for 3.02 heavy resisitance there. But I have a lighter position so ok with some volatility.
I like the gold scenario. Fits with the markets tendency lately for one or two false DCL’s before the real one forms. The market has figured out how to run cycle traders stops and the gold cycle appears to have evolved from an 18-28 day cycle into a 30-40 day cycle.
If the miners don’t follow gold down it would be a strong indication that it’s going to play out exactly like you envisioned.
yeah, The cycles for Gold and Miners definitely always seem to be in the 30’s now, where not too long ago a day 24- 28 dcl would be just normal. The “no reaction at all’ from Silver & Miners does seem to be a tell.
Now what I am watching for is — After the fed meeting, does Gold slam down into the real dcl & silver & miners barley move down also? or does everything pop higher and then roll over later.
I’m lookiing for the Fed statement to either confirm last week as a DCL in the dollar, or push it down one more time into the final DCL. I’m guessing gold will take it’s cue from where the dollar goes.
The darn currencies didn’t correct deeply enough at the last ICL to trigger another immediate leg up in the dollar. So we are stuck with this irritating sideways churn, maybe for many weeks.
I am frustrated with the USD myself. I also think the USD is the key to where energy and pm’s go from here.
I also have the USD as a DCL ( wave 2 down ) last week, but now I am hedging a bit …….
CUBA might be a player here.
That was on my watchlist, and I forgot to check it. I was looking for a tag of the 50sma , but it may be close enough in this area. Quite a repetitious pattern.
Agree.
Chinese Internet stocks jumping after Qihoo’s buyout offer. FYI
Yes, Many have been on fire and also many Biotech are on fire. . You see YOKU since April? DANG looks interesting and RENN burst higher. MOBI followed too
A few charts from the weekend report continue to look really good.
ZIOP, EYES, and I even still like LBIO is it doesnt drop much further.
GALT did tag the 50sma and reverse higher too, needs follow through.
IDRA set up nicely , REPH is still ok,
and AST was an EPIC FAIL at the 50sma
Nice pre fed Silver shake out there. Drop loked like $16.05 to $15.88, then back to green. Same with GDX & I just got my complete gap fill 🙂
New Cycle start in miners?
Let’s hope so. Solid, multi day bounce should lead to a great short opportunity.
As far as other analysts, I am starting to see more and more articles for ‘Final Bear Market Drop for Metals’ with forecast for huge drop and bear end this year. Becoming very numerous.
Alex, what do you think of this beat down in crude?
3 min to go….
Yay!
So quite today 🙂
GDX (I use NUGT) is bouncing as expected.
Tight stop. Good odds
Nice pickup
EEM chart for a bounce.
Weekly UUP under its 34WMA…. will it continue?
I came this close to adding WTI just before FED (was at about $59.00). Dang. Technically, looks like great spot to add Nat gas, but not going to step in front of 1030 EIA report.
Alex, I have a bit more cash ready to deploy than normal. See anything that wouldn’t be chasing? I want to add some HACK components but not here (OPM news really got FEYE going, maybe I should have LT hold there instead of swung last month!).