Whats Your Favorite Color?
If your favorite color is GREEN, then you probably like the futures this morning at 6 a.m. Eastern time. Is Green expected to continue as the color of the day? lets take a look.
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SPX- yesterday I thought we could expect a reversal and it looks to have happened
The NASDAQ looks very much the same, except…
It is even stronger , reversing well above the 38.2 fib number.
Last week we had a slam down in OIL and many were concerned, so I showed this chart of 2009 lows and pointed out that the slam down was normal, I still expect a break out higher. Watch the 50sma.
OIL NOW- we are about to break out. The BUY on the 50sma has held. Some are using UWTI , USO, UCO.
WTIC long range look. This is a possibility, not a guarantee
NATGAS – I expected a higher move in NATGAS too. I said, “Natgas often lingers at the lows and then takes off”. Those holding UGAZ were rewarded nicely.
The question is, “What is happening to the XLE?” It is lagging with OIL & NATGAS POPPING. I will be honest with you all, I do not know why some energy stocks are not responding. The last time OIL bottomed in March, the XLE immediately ran sharply. I expected the same now. Some energy stocks are popping, others are not. Lets watch the 10sma for a break out.
REN is an example of a nice 20% POP in response to OIL & GAS. The 20sma stalled it, that should be temporary. Notice in early April REN broke the 50sma and went sideways before doubling. I added yesterday and will likely add again, since the stochastics is still oversold. As a “Trader” – I sold 1/2 my PLUG position and added to REN for now .
The US DOLLAR was slightly down yesterday
GOLD,SILVER, MINERS
I draw my charts the night before my morning reports are written. So last night I was pondering a possible stop run today like we saw on May 1? Or a break above the 10sma, since we do have a swing low in place. A possible DCL. The futures for GOLD now ( 6:45 a.m. ) are $1185.
Gold is oversold, I expect a weaker bounce.
SILVER – This actually looks bullish. Silver is oversold , but has held up well so far.
GDX- I am expecting a weaker bounce, not a strong rally. I drew this example. It would be hard to trade unless you were quick.
GDX Tuesday- This is the sloppiest chart I’ve ever drawn. I must be uninspired? 🙁 I am watching the 50sma as possible resistance , we might just bounce around under it. If we do better than this, Miners may be ignoring Metals.
GDXJ – its worth noting that the JUNIORS are acting stronger than many Miners, as I have mentioned repeatedly here ( TRQ, BAA, RIC, LSG, etc) . Was that a reversal candle at the 50sma too? Some Juniors may be under accumulation. I saw a couple of interesting Miners yesterday, I will point them out at the end of the report.
So the Markets are GREEN, if you bought something in the past couple of days, you may have a good day . The name of the game is ‘BUY THE DIPS, SELL THE RIPS’ if you can find the right kind of set up. I will be interested in seeing how ENERGY stocks act today.
~ALEX
I mentioned that some miners look bullish. If I wasnt expecting a GOLD pullback in a week or so due to cycle timing, I would expect that these could be set up to run higher. I will be watching these and others. I have mentioned TRQ, BAA, LSG, etc etc . Notice also IAG, AKG,as Gold & SIlver sold off.
SSRI- Rising while Silver sold off (see top box)
These are a couple of charts that I posted as bullish set ups. You can look them up now, they are still valid ( though some have improved).
MTDR– Resource stock from the wkend report . It has continued higher, but could break out above the highs
EYES – weekend report
EYES UPDATE- Coiling for a break higher?
CBAK ( AND also see ZBB) – It has had 1 or 2 day drops on the way up in the past.
AMPH– Posted June 1st here….Volume surge, Preparing to break out
AMPH NOW– Broke out, likely to continue higher , but may test the break out ( thats a buy)
DSKX – $1.88 on June 1. I pointed out a strong looking run, this slam may be a false light volume drop to the trend line (Blue writing on the chart).
DSKX Now – This is a strong healthcare stock! Up almost 400% since April. Buy a pullback to the 20sma
ERN – June 1 , this Energy stock actually ran further to $9. I said BUY a deep pullback ( DO NOT CHASE)
ERN– I knew it would come. This may need a little more consolidating at the 50sma. Its worth watching for a real reversal
Lastly. Do you post in a Blog / Twitter/ other forums? Have you ever posted anything negative about GOLD for example, and out of the blue you get confronted by some Uber Gold Bug? They call you names and start telling you off? If so, this may answer the question :
“Who was that guy?”
A very good morning ALEX …..
Thanks a lot for your very hard working this morning, so as always.
Question…. you wrote: “If we do better than this, Miners may be ignoring Metals”.
Can you explain a bit more what you mend?
Gt.
Hi Geurt,
Good morning to you too
I mean that I do not expect METALS like GOLD & SILVER to run a lot higher with this “Bounce” , I expect them to drop into a deeper low that we call an ICL. So if MINERS do run above the 50sma and even higher (Doing better than the sideways type bounce that I drew on the GDX chart), then it shows that some Miners may be trying to put in a bottoming base or hold up , while Gold drops to its next ICL. I give examples of LSG, RIC, etc as stocks that bottomed in 2013 and have not come close to returning there in sell offs lately.
Hope that helps to clarify what I meant.
Ohhh…. thanks a lot brother.
See you later.
Look a that overnight move in oil. Boom! Likely taking some off the table before inventory report this morning, but will still let some run.
What time is the report at? Have to set stops.
Bill, 1030 AM Eastern.CNBC and others will cover it but full report at eia.gov/petroleum. Nat gas is 1030 Thurs.
Alex, good report. Expecting another good day based on overnight activity. Do you ever wonder why some stocks that were stars are no longer. I was with you at the bottom, buying SFY,GDP,EXXI, BAS, They were stars and returned double digit profits. Some of these are right back where they started. Thanks god for stops. Now it seems we have a new bunch of stars, RIG, REN, CLNE, etc. Why is that? You would think the same ocean would raise all boats?
Hi Bill,
I have a few theories, but they are really just that. A guess based on studying past similarities under similar circumstances. .
For example, one guess would be that the first 100% rally was largely part of a short covering frenzy. Many thought OIL was going to $20 and shorted every bounce in these energy stocks that went from $30 to $5. Now they had to cover, and others ( like us ) were buying the lows and also adding to the push on pullbacks.
The second time OIL rallies, there are far less shorts covering and more ‘reality’ – ” This company isnt making as much money yet.” They then base out a bit longer until good news comes out that they are doing ok.
The new Good looking companies that hold up above the 50sma ( For ex: REXX) are having good results despite the sell off in oil, and will do even better with Oils higher prices. The stocks back at lows are in a base and will either prove themselves or struggle.
Thats just one idea that I have
Alex, just wondering what your thoughts are on AUY, think it wants to break that low asst 3.30?
Double bottom, should move up from here. Always been a low cost producer.
That was my initial thought, but I’ve been wrong for close to 4 years now.
Its very oversold, and on a 1 yr chart that is a solid support area so far, but if GOLD sells off to an ICL later in late June July, it could pull a stop run and recover ( or hold up) . The chart doesnt indicate much right now , except that it has been weak and is oversold at lows.
Good report Alex. I like your thought on REN. From the full stochastics perspective, RIG and CLNE also look attractive, though not quite as much as REN. I may pick up some REN today for my account.
I own RIG, its been moving between $18.90 and $19.50 a lot.
Thanks for the info Billl. I traded it a month or two ago, been looking to get back in and will watch the range you mentioned..
I love the set up for REN on a 1 yr wkly chart too. I really want to see it close above the 10 WMA ( it is on it right now). We’ll see what Friday brings
I sold ETP and bought REN. My charts show the most upside potential out of any of the energy stocks we discuss. Look at the upside if it makes it to the upper trend line. 60% I also like the positive H&S pattern forming. Plus, 38.2% pullback is healty
MCP anyone? I got stopped out last week, now wishing I was still in. I like the setup as you pointed out before Alex. Big rounding bottom coiling. I can see a buy point here if it drops back to around $0.36 then another run up like previous. Going to depend on the bankruptcy news.
i looked at that last nite Bill.. if my count is correct ANND it doesnt go bankrupt..(trying 2 think of more disclaimers..wink) i have this… not bad – i mayyy take sum – looks like its just starting C up – https://www.tradingview.com/x/iIFmSF5y/
im waiting on this …. last time there weren’t tooo many believers & it pulled back pretty good…. fyi
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2jgITfVe/
HERO poking on 50 day
Thx Charlie, I hadnt noticed. It hit it as resistance and backed off a bit, but it can burst higher into the close or in a day or 2 and that would be a bullish sign.
SSRI- thanks Alex……
just time before declining tops is broken to the upside IMO.
I added to CLNE – refresh for a chart . Longer term hold as long as the 50sma remains supportive.
ooo ooo ooooo … .soooo sexy.
Does the declining volumn bother you?
Not so much during the sideways bottoming type move, but if it climbs higher daly on lighter & lighter it might.
I like to see strong volume run up, lighter volume sell off , consolidate, and then repeat.
That is a nice looking chart. Here with you on this one!
BAS thoughts Alex, anyone? H&S ?
depends whether retakes 50SMA?
I’d go with that for safety sake. It is very oversold, I dont know why these aren’t igniting , they should in time.
they’re showing signs of strength in different measure between BAS, SFY, SZYM, EXXI, REXX etc. Liked very much CFs considered view as to what may be going on in answer to Bill earlier today
Thx, maybe ran out of shorts, now we need genuine BUYERS 🙂
HERO and GURE forming a rounded base. OKay,, but how do you predict the upside?
Good eye Bill, that MACD looks nice too, rising while price bottoms.
Predicting price in a basic way is that it should return to the top (Cup) over time. So here would be ….50cents to $5. Not bad 🙂
When? Theoretically if it took 9 months to go from left side top to the middle of the bottom, it can take the same to return to the highs. Many are symmetrical. Others rebound very fast due to good fundamentals .
I posted this chart on my June 3 weekend report. It is now breaking out with good volume.
Oh man, Just looking over my charts. I likened this chart to MNKD. Said its a buy above the 50sma. Check it out today
LOOK AT GALT! I want that for CLNE tomorrow please 🙂
Pulled the plug on PLUG might go to 2.6 added to FRO
Hey Steven,
Boredom is my enemy. I pulled the plug too, and added to CLNE , I find I’m more patient when they are slowly climbing higher.
NOW dont you get the feeling PLUG is just going to rip upward without us?? – lol
Best wishes : )
Anyone else ‘excited’ by the rise in Japanese Yen and start of a possible sizeable rally? It’s about the most hated of currencies.
As primary mover in Carry Trade a weaker and weaker Yen has contributed to inexorable rise in equities, generally.
If – biiig if – Yen rallies, hard, could be negative for stocks, generally and positive for our kinds eg precious metals, energy? Not counting the general weakness in US$.
THAT is what I was referring to when I said in the weekend report that I am watching other things . so “YES”
And yes, the YEN CARRY TRADE 🙂
Another bullish engulfing by NBG on laaarge volume. Is it its time? Could be.
THAT Looks very promising. With the lows in January and higher lows in APRIL, It is the 3rd higher low . It is oversold from that long sideways move, but the RSI didnt suffer at all, it is pretty much already crossing into 50% zone.
THAT looks very Good this time JD
DVN looks like a lottery ticket? Look at the volume picking up.
Who can answer this question after reading below article?
1. Means this Gold will take off to the upside?
2. Means this the USD will take down?
“Bloomberg also suggested that China is soon going to want to disclose its
gold holdings in an effort to have the yuan join the IMF’s currency basket,
called the special drawing right. Current membership privileges to the SDR
belong to only the dollar, euro, yen and British pound.
If China’s gold reserve is revealed this year and the size of the addition
surprises to the upside, it is going to be a major shot across the bow of the
U.S. dollar.
In fact, it might be a lot more than that. It may be a direct hit”.
Thanks for helping me out!
Geurt.
Yes Geurt
the article is implying GOLD would be bullish and the dollar will have topped. It doesnt mean right now, but they are implying that it could be in the near future.
It basically fits my current outlook on things too. Gold bottoming and the Dollar topping.
Anyone else can feel free to add to this too
i take no notice of what media says may or may not happen. Charts have sum of all knowledge therein.