I am seeing a lot of Triangles forming in the markets, some bullish by nature and others bearish. Lets take a look and review the past week and look forward to a few ideas too…
I posted this WKLY NASDAQ in a mid-week report on MAY 6. Could it recover?
Amazing. It recovered by week end.
Lets look at some other triangles and wedges…
Since that is looking like a Bearish Rising Wedge, I wanted to show this as a side point-
This 2011 to 2013 wedge broke upward. It is less likely with a steep wedge like the one we have now, but…
If we Bullishly break higher, it could become a steeper climb and go parabolic. A break down from the wedge wouldn’t necessarily kill the bull either, it could be trading in this channel.
SPX also has a wedge ( Triangle) and it broke down & recovered. It too can break down and recover later after a healthy correction.
$WTIC – You can see that A healthy pullback wouldn’t hurt at all on this weekly chart.
ENERGY STOCKS sold off last week , but they reversed higher again Friday . Many look Bullish, and this chart of the XLE is interestingly bullish again. Oversold, reversed off of support, RSI 50 recovered.
I keep saying that I love this pattern and I expect this to go higher. I added again on the dip to the 10sma. For trade ideas see also EOX, WTI, BAS, NADL, KEG, GDP, VTG, and a few other reversals (SZYM, CLNE, AMRS ).
NATGAS sold off after the Thursday report and I actually received a few concerns about Thursdays NATGAS report. Is NATGAS now bearish? I had called for the shake out type double bottom, we received it, but what about now? Answer: Expect dips and examine them, but this is a perfect set up. So I recommended looking at OILs Chart , back when it broke out. Did it go straight up, or dip along the way? Many dips…then I emailed this chart of NATGAS to point out that Thursdays dip was nothing. Its more of a sideways move to the moving averages. Support was there and the dip wasnt even 38%.
NATGAS Friday. The MARKETS agreed with me. NATGAS is bullish.
GOLDS C.O.T. got a bit more Bullish with recent selling.
I pointed out the BULLISH #’s and the BEARISH #’s here…
GOLD is stuck in a Triangle of sorts too.
SILVER WEEKLY – Last week I pointed out this TRIANGLE ($16.40)
A week later and it’s not much higher , still no break out ( 16.42)
GDX WKLY….HMMM, TRIANGLE. In last weekends report, I pointed out that in 2000 at THE LOWS in Precious metals, MINERS bottomed 6 months before GOLD. They bottomed and Gold actually fell to fresh lows in April 2001, so keep that in mind. A break above this triangle could point to the FINAL LOWS for Miners being in as of Nov 2014, even if GOLD dips again. I say this because, also mentioned in that report, many Miners are showing strength.
CYCLES can become very unclear in triangle type patterns. They look like break downs and failures, but they recover and extend the cycle count. Right now we might have seen a DCL in GOLD and MINERS . Next week should tell, less conservative traders can trade it long with a stop under recent reversals. I have been pointing out that I like many BASES in Miners and the action in many too. SEE TRQ, GSS, NEM,GORO, EXK, GG, LSG, RIC, and others for reversals or interesting action. I have been trading break outs and buying light volume pullbacks, but for more conservative, you want to see a break out from the triangles.
GSS broke out 2 days ago from a small flat base & I bought it Thursday. VGZ is looking similar, but these are low priced stocks and some may wish to avoid them, I understand that. I also have mentioned that I own and accumulated BAA for a while. I have made good money in the past from Long tight bases of oversold/overdone stocks. (Seen in Energy recently)
XLF _ Bullish , see bank stocks listed as they have just started breaking higher too. Traders can trade them long.
JO / DAG / the CRB, WEAT, SGG all look bullish to me, as having bottomed and moving higher. Some just starting, but others a tad extended, so for the extended ones I look for a pullback to the 10sma and buy with a stop a little below. Lets look at a couple of charts.
JO-May be Very Bullish now, Like the CRB, OIL, and NATGAS were.
In last weekends report I had a few trade ideas- Set ups that look Bullish. Some continue to set up (So I check them and watch them) others break down, and others break out upside. The ones that break down, your stop gets you out with a small loss, the ones that break out can add up to large gains. Lets look at a few trade ideas (And I want to start with HUBS from last weekends report.
HUBS- last wkend report, MAY 4.
HUBS – WHOA, MAY 7
SDRL – Last weeks report, breaking out. Wait for the pullback.
SDRL- The break out pulled back with Energy and may be a buy now with a tight stop. It could break out for real soon.
BTU – still setting up – I said in this hart to look for a drop MID MAY. We are getting it now ( AND WLT just popped 20% on news)
CUBA– from last week, still a valid set up
ZBB WKLY (DAILY LOOKS GOOD TOO- maybe 1 more drop to the 50sma daily & this 10 WMA ?) It may just go higher from here though.
The ALUMINUM POPS…have pulled back.
I LOVED CENX when it popped. Low risk set up-You can add with a stop below these lows.Buy now.
AA- reversal off of the 50sma, buy now.
CLF ( This was MAY 7. It pulled back further Friday, setting up for a buy I.M.O. )
Believe it or not…Our SOLAR STOCKS dropped big Thuursday and recovered Friday! They looked bad Thursday, now they look like bullish recovery.
TSL – is a buy, stop below Thursdays low.
JASO– Buy – the 50sma / trendline held as support.
SODA DAILY looked good so…
I checked the WEEKLY- also Bullish bottoming action. This could fly.
Biosciences CALA- Big moves when it runs, may want to check the news, this move looks real with short covering and likely follow thru. You can watch it and buy a pullback if one comes.
Its a week of Triangles, isnt it? Some potentially Bullish and some potentially bearish.
I wanted to do an extensive weekend report and throw some trade ideas in there to watch as the week unfolds too . Some can be low risk entries right were they are now and others may need to pullback a bit more as mentioned. I will be doing reports Tuesday , Wednesday, and Thursday as usual, but I will be away from the comments section (and markets really) for most of the trading days. I have some family commitments.
I think the Energy stocks pulled back nicely and many put in reversals Friday, they may be ready for another run higher. I’m looking for a break higher in Miners and Gold & Silver too, but we’ll have to see if that plays out. Solars recovered, I am watching uranium stocks, Aluminum, etc etc . Also the Equity markets recovered *Again, and again and again! 🙂
Happy trading on Monday and we’ll see you in Tuesday mornings report. As always, Thanks for being here at Chartfreak!
~ALEX
CHANGE 
Similarities
Scroll to top
Great report Alex. Lots of good ideas.My wife sent me out to buy coffee this morning. Maybe I should buy some!
COFFEE is a tough one for me here. Could be bottoming, but it could just be a bear flag that broke down and is retesting that along with the 20/50 DMAs. Need to see it follow thru this week and close above the 20 & 50 DMA. I think there’s still a good chance it breaks down again from here with possible support at 1.20ish on $COFFEE (look at the weekly).
But we’ll see! I’m staying away myself.
Yes, that JO chart really looks good to me.
I think JO looks great. If its a bear flag, you dont risk much with a tight stop. Im more inclined to think its a double bottom getting ready to break out. Good catch Alex
Where (what number) do you place the stop Bill.
Thanks for your help.
Below recent lows on JO, CENX has the moving averages bunched up, but its still about $1 below price. $13.75 stop, but you may want to wait for a break above the 50sma or a pullback in price
Sorry ALEX…. I mean JO, the stop thus @ 22.00 ????
Alex- we have been lulled to sleep in miners and almost feels like people just not paying attention or caring anymore as focused on spx and energy.. Could be a perfect time for a stealthy breakout as we all know when the fuse sparks in miners they can move 10-20 percent very quickly.. Do u think a possible move like that could happen out of the triangle.. I was thinking 22ish quick than a backtest and flow through to 24-5 by end of month?
When I show that triangle, I see others in various blogs and yahoo finance, etc showing it as a downtrend line, and they are saying they are shorting miners at the overhead resistance. IF price breaks that trend line ( triangle) to the upside, we could get a short covering burst, and then buyers, so it is possible in my opinion.
I kind of expect that, but I also have to respect the possibility that it drops again in that triangle , so for the conservative trader, they may want to wait for a break higher first .
Thx Alex and do u expect resolution this week or could still potentially be a couple weeks?
We are right at the line, it could come tomorrow upside, or it could drop & take its time. I expect it sooner than later personally.
Rm, I had same questions. Thanks for the dialogue!
Nice report, Alex. I got juked out of TSL, grrrrr
Yeah, they ran some stops for sure, breaking recent lows. I cant believe Friday reversed most of them like that. CRazy markets
Me too.
looking at the 3yr chart for XLF, and I’m very interested to jump in. Rates go higher, banks will make more money by raising their rates. I’ll keep close eye on.
The banks that I mentioned do have a bullish bias to their charts
Alex,Can Energy turn Bullish and still expect OIL to pull back same time? Does Dollar look like it wants to bounce back ? does any of these look correlated now?
It always happens that way, thats why in the comments section I often get questions like,
What is the news, Energy stocks are dropping while Oil is up?” or ” Why are miners down when Gold is up $7?”
Often the Miners lead, when they drop, Gold pops and confuses people. Energy stocks ran higher for a while, and then they pulled back while OIL was up & people ere confused.
It can happen and does often. I dont guarantee anything, they can fall together, but energy stocks revered and closed higher Friday , oil closed selling off from its highs into the close. OIL does also look on a daily chart like it has pulled back below the 10sm and at the 20sma ….it too can go higher.
Yep, you can drive yourself nuts trying to figure out the correlations and WHY something is happening in the markets. Correlations change, and they’re never perfect anyway. (Oil stocks are terribly correlated with oil; gold miners much better but not always.) So go with what the charts are telling you!
Hi any view on MHR now?
Falling knife!
It had a huge high volume candle in late January…it is testing that break on lighter volume. Today could end up being a last engulfing candle ( meaning downside stops here).
Its not a buy until you get the reversal though
Alex, thanks for the report, I think JO and CENX look the best, ready to buy Today with tight stops. These could really take off. I bought some NUGT last week. Hopping for a pop this week.
Where (what number) do you place the stop Bill.
Thanks for your help.
Stop anywhere below $22.14 on JO and anywhere below $12.35 on CENX
CENX has the moving averages bunched up below it at $13.75 area, but its still held down by the 50sma. For some, they may want to wait for a break above the
50sma to buy , or a pullback in price to the moving averages below to buy. Both can use a tighter stop.
Yeah it’s either a great buy or a good short! (if rejected here at the 50 DMA) More likely the former with the great vol on the B/O, the low vol gap fill and the pos divs on RSI, MACD.
Personally, I would not short it . That high volume surge in the beginning of May does not say short this ( to me).
I wouldn’t either.
I like the miners. Bought some last week. I saw the down trend reverse after breaking the trend line. I think we get back up to the upper trend line $20.29 anyway. Hourly chart attached
Check out HIMX- I am not familiar with the company, but that set up is pretty nice (long).
Also mentioned that I bought the small flat base break in GSS last week and it popped again today, could add on a pullback. They had some good news.
I am just checking in for 5 minutes , then I have to leave. Hope all is well
lol.. i bought that this in pre.. 😉
Interesting. A little ugly right now on a 6 mo chart (tho better with the pop today above the 20 DMA) but very interesting on the weekly. Key pivot in that 5.75 area.
GNX is interesting setup. Bouncing off the 20 DMA after filling a big gap. Nice rounded bottom/base. Insurance co. that could do well if rates are going to start rising.
I bought PLUG this a.m. on earnings release. Now it appears to be a bullish engulfing if this holds . Some may wait for a push to see if it gets through the 50sma, but I like the engulfing candle and strong volume today, with earnings release.
CBAK looks good too.
Good Morning,
I took profits on my 1 /16 Calls on SLW and PAAS this morning.
Holding GG for now.
I am “Uncomfortable” in this sector at the moment.
Heres my thoughts on OIL (USOIL). I think the BAT harmonic pattern is in play. We are through the last are of congestion I think we will head higher for a while (follow the blue arrow). See attacfhed
Some good news on AKS today. Merrill reiterated buy with price target of 9$.
I’ve been watching ANGI and it’s starting to look interesting here. There’s an IHS look to it and pos divs on daily and weeklly.
Good place to add or start position in NATGAS here on pull back to the 2.82 pivot if you missed the opportunity at 2.71
Not a sure thing, i.e. won’t pull back further, but a good risk/reward if you want to set today’s low as a stop.
Head and shoulders pattern on GDX 15 min – http://screencast.com/t/HDjm07pFwYX
Boy, I would have hated to be a Treasury Bill today.
Alex, thanks for (someone finally) teaching me some patience. Setting limit buys and just letting them execute instead of having to just always be jumping in.