EARNINGS!

Between the Earnings Reports last week and the FED this week , the markets have begun looking  quite interesting in many ways. Lets take a look…

April 22 – I pointed out a consolidation that could break to new ‘closing’ highs in the NASDAQ.

Would it Break or Fail during earnings ?

NASDAQ wkly- closed at new all time closing highs.   There is a wedge that I have been watching, but there are still so many bullish stock  charts that you want to lean to the long side and just stay prepared in case the wedge slows things down.  I’ll show you how this wedge can be negated using the SPX  ( rather rare) .  lets look closer…

SPX WKLY–  notice that it also has a wedge

SPX –  a steady surge higher , and this is how  the wedge could be negated

If you were here at CHARTFREAK back in JAN-Feb,  I reported that the markets could be toppy, because I saw many leaders breaking down.  I charted AMZN, PCLN, GOOGL, NFLX, and MSFT as breaking their 50sma and breaking below supporting uptrend lines.   SO this was a warning sign,  but I want to show you what happened in the quarter after earnings reports came out and so on…

NOTICE- Those companies WERE breaking down, but this is why we dont grudgingly stick to any bias.  They are  now recovering, the break down  became a normal correction.  GOOGL & PCLN have 1 yr consolidations and could be a longer term BUY & HOLD if things play out.

If things just continue as is, the markets could be heading for a parabolic or “blow off top” type move. We definitely need more time to see how this wedge plays out, but there are MANY bullish set ups out there.  I also pointed out the recent break DOWN in housing stocks last week. Is this a warning of a toppy market, or will they just consolidate as other stocks (plus commodities) just carry the markets ever higher? SO MUCH to watch here!

That said,  The markets ran up with the $USD running up , and commodities crashed.  Now the DOLLAR looks toppy , and for the first time in a LONG time, it has broken a couple of technical bullish indicators on it’s weekly chart.  Some are shown below.

So the question has to be,  “If the Markets ran up with the dollar and commodities crashed, will commodities now recover as the dollar dips?” So far this has started to occur in the $CRB, DAG, $WTIC, $SUGAR, SOLARS, etc.   Many have double bottoms, shown below.  This could have implications for GOLD/SILVER/MINERS too.

$ WTIC & CRB APRIL  – double bottoms

We have seen many ENERGY stocks recovering, and I’ve pointed out the set ups or run ups occurring in Rare Earth, Uraniums, stocks like VALE, CLF, etc., so I am watching for Metal / Miners to put in lows soon too.

$NATGAS-  I have been expecting to see  a possible double bottom form.   It still looks bullishly set up for a double bottom to me, but I need to see a break out above this triangle upper trend line to confirm , before I begin trading it.

$WTIC – Acting as expected. It could drop & be just fine.

GOLD/SILVER/MINERS

The way I am looking at GOLD,  it  is getting late in cycle timing and I think it is a bullish set up.  This is  especially  so if you look at how MINERS are holding up with Silver almost at recent lows.  Bullish for Miners.  One of my Cycle analysts is counting it very different and has a bearish break down possible in the works, so I am ‘Cautiously Bullish”.

This is my GOLD 4-22-2015 chart.  I placed us on day 25 –  Some Cycle guys have said that there was a DCL on the APRIL 14 dip (day 19).  That causes a cautious outlook, because we would be on daily cycle #2 .       I never stopped counting us as still being in the first daily cycle, which would have Friday as day 27. Look at the ‘movement’ in the Nov-Dec first daily cycle.  I wouldn’t have counted the drop Dec 1 as a dcl either.

Gold now –  IF you counted Day 19 as a daily cycle low, we just broke below it Friday, and that would be a bearish break down on a 2nd daily cycle.   Right now I see Miners in a bullish set up and thus think that GOLD is likely on day 28 today.  That is in the timing for a reversal higher.  I dont want to see the magenta line broken.

GOLD WKLY- using Technical Analysis ( T/A), it is a Long Base at this point.

SILVER _ has sold off almost to recent lows. I have seen traders in other blogs trying to jump the gun and buy SLV.  Using T/A , it is almost time if this wedge breaks out higher.    We should break out higher soon, it is an oversold Bullish descending wedge.

So This is my personal thinking :

With GOLD & SILVER Selling off,  Miners have not –  Thats Bullish for Miners.  I think Some (selectively) are at a  buy point for those in front of a screen that want to accumulate positions.   If the metals start breaking down to new lows, you would have to watch them closely.    I see the CRB, OIL, DAG, Solars , (  URANIUM STOCKS, RARE EARTH STOCKS are rocketing ) etc. bullishly breaking higher.     These are all acting bullishly, so that adds weight to my thinking that Miners will move bullishly soon, too.  I like the set up on many miners too, so I am going to watch them closely.

GDX– please excuse the typo on the chart.  “Holding ” up better… 

SO basically, We are seeing many commodities bottoming and breaking higher.  I would expect that NATGAS and  the Metals /Miners would follow soon .  NATGAS can march to the beat of its own drum, but it did do a 5 wave move down and so I would think that the move down is about complete.   I expect Metals to start climbing too, I am just waiting for signs there.  Looking at UUU, URZ, URRE, UEC –  Those may become Buy Set Ups as they pull back.  Look at how the  Rare Earth stocks surged like Uranium stocks have  ( MCP, REE, AVL) , and then notice how they pulled back.  You may see something similar in Uranium stocks, that can help you find a good entry .

As for the Equity markets?  This is a FED WEEK.  Tuesday & Wednesdy the Fed is active, so be prepared for that.   So far the Markets  look Bullish as the have been  breaking to new highs.   I ‘ve been showing that in The big picture  there are wedges that I am watching,  Housing stocks got slammed last week, so there are cationary notes, but at the same time many  other stocks  like  MSFT , NFLX, AMZN, etc surged higher from consolations.

I see so many good trading set ups that ‘traders’ can do well in this environment.  I’ve mentioned  VALE, CLF, X, SOL, AKS, S, NQ,   , Energy stocks,  Solars,  and many more.   Some of these exploded, others still look good, they just take more time. I hope this report helps you in your analysis, there are a lot of opportunities now & in the near future  the way things are lining up.  Fed Week, we may see an end to the sideways chop in GOLD/SILVER/ MINERS.   YAY !

Have a great day.

~Alex

P.S.  Just a note:  In Thursday & then Fridays report entitled  “WATCH LISTS AND SET UPS”   I gave a list of “interesting stocks” and mentioned that some were good set ups, others go on a watch list to buy the pullback etc.   SO they weren’t all automatically ‘BUYS’.  For experienced traders here they were set ups to check out going forward.

  I will re-post that below   by copy/paste …

I think all of the things mentioned in prior reports remain bullish.  SOLAR stocks are trending higher  (SOL TSL,JKS, JASO, etc ) , STEEL stocks look very good  (AKS- X-STLD) .  I like VALE, CLF, .  S (Sprint looks like it finally wants to break out )along with NQ . Uraniums are on fire along with Rare Earth.

If you have time and like to just run through charts, please look these up.  I have been interested in these as a trader.  Some are set ups, others are set ups mentioned here now breaking out  (Those go on a watch list to buy a pullback).  I wish I had time to draw up all the charts for you, I have been a little under the weather since yesterday.

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SZYM, VALE,CLF, UUUU, SXC, EJ, S, LEJU, AMZN, ANY, STLD, X, AKS, PANW, TSL, SOL, FIVN, ( Remeber SSNI? I bought & got stopped out immediately, it is now at recent highs    JMEI, UNXL, ARWR, SXC, LPI , ANW, GNE.