JOBS REPORT AND MORE

Fridays Jobs Report said a lot, and how the various markets react should be quite interesting. The markets were closed Friday , so what will Monday bring?  Check this out…

I’ll start with the IBB WEEKLY chart.  This isnt overly Bearish at this point, its still above the weekly moving average, but needs monitoring.It was last Spring that Biotechs sold off deeply.

Now lets look at the SPX & the NASDAQ,  but first let me explain the possible implicaitons of the negative jobs report that came out Friday …

Fridays jobs report was the weakest since Dec 2013.   126,000 was the number.  It was less than 1/2 of February’s, some were expecting closer to 280,000!   It  really raises concerns about the strength of the economy. Now here is the interesting part about that –  These markets are Devious.

1.   Does a bad report mean we crash Monday , because it was so weak and causes a panic sell? 

2.   Or does it imply that the  FED will hold off on raising rates  (expected in June), so now the markets will view it as bullish &  rally with expectations of the FED holding off?

Either scenario comes at a timely moment on the charts.

SPX WKLY–  The WEDGE.  Crash down or break higher?

NASDAQ WEEKLY – This wedge seems close to complete & the wkly MACD wants to cross down? HMMM.

SO if MONDAY starts with a deep gap down,  we might have our sell-off  from the wedge that I have been watching materializing on the bad Jobs Report.  A Burst higher ( thinking that the Fed wont raise rates) “Could” keep the bull going.  More on this later.

$WTIC-  I am ignoring the IRAN DEAL news and I continue to like the set up in OIL. The double bottom shake out shook out longs and caught  people flipping  “Short”.  The IRAN deal may have people heavily  short too, and they may have to cover if this moves higher.

$NATGAS–  I also like NATGAS for a rally here. Nice pop Friday.

LESSON & A WORD OF CAUTION GOING FORWARD IN NATGAS.

You may recall that I called for a double bottom BREAK DOWN & RECOVERY  in both  GOLD in November ,  and recently OIL, and that recovery becomes a  “Shake out”.   OIL had it March 16.   Notice :  The CRB just did a double bottom shake out .  I dont get emotional and try to blame everyone for this. These are very common, It’s how the BIG MONEY can enter a position.  They have million of $$ to invest, so they sell something off and when the lows are broken,   those that went long get stopped out  ( Big Money buys their positions). Then many scream emotionally that ‘we have a break down,  go short!’   While the herd goes short ,   Big Money does the opposite raising prices.    Now those “SHORTS” have to cover & Big Money continues buying.   The price recovers ,  those “SHORTS”  cover, and often The original “LONGS” that got stopped out start to re-buy …and a rally can occur.

My point??

We did NOT get a Shake out in NATGAS  (YET).  Notice NATGAS 2009 lows.   VERY SIMILAR TO NOW.  1.  Double bottom over 2 months ( we just did that)  2.  then it rallied next & 3.  then a shake out.  Then that HUGE VOLUME  in Sept  as Big Money takes positions.    I just wanted to keep all here alert to that possibility if we rally a bit .  My current NATGAS chart  ( Posted above )doesnt have that shake out & huge volume.   The Big Money may want in.

GOLD & MINERS    still looking Bullish & Bearish in various ways.   Will the JOBS report move Gold?  If the markets tank on that Jobs report,  Gold could rally.  If the Markets rally , thinking FED stall on rate hike,  GOLD could drop to the ICL.  Or was that the ICL in March?  THAT has been the dilemma.    Lets not blame the Big Money and Banksters if they want to put some big funds to work, We know how they ‘enter’ Big positions ,  Stay calm, stay centered and lets just watch how this plays out and hopefully join them when the time is right. To  The  Charts …

GOLD WEEKLY –  This recovered from the recent sell off below June 2013 lows and testing Dec 2014 lows. It looks bullish but please notice that it has struggled sideways for weeks in Nov & Dec!   Yes, each Candle is actually a week.  We had many weeks of sideways action Nov – Dec.  Frustrating for “traders”.  A BURST HIGHER would be very bullish,  but sideways /  down will be tough trading.

GOLD DAILY –  possible inverse H&S.  Watch prior pivots for a possible break out higher .

GDX DAILY-  this chart hasn’t proven to be any more than a bounce so far.  Was that a daily cycle low about to roll over at the blue line?   Or an ICL in March ready to break above $20?   It may reveal its direction next week. A close above $20 is bullish.

I have 2 GDX WEEKLY charts  – Another leg down or rally higher? My “GUT” says that we saw a Daily Cycle Low in March and another drop to new lows.  There IS reason to believe we bottomed however , and those March lows are it.

GDX WKLY #1- Purple arrows simply represent areas where the GDX rallied convincingly, but unable to break out higher, it rolled over to the “Real Meaningful Trade-able Low”  (ICL) weeks later.  We are there now.  Again,  a wkly close above $20 is bullish.  We didn’t get as oversold on the stochastics as prior ICL’s…  1 more dip?

GDX WKLY #2 –  I am pointing out that GDX  had a reversal after 4 months from an ICL  ( Blue arrow) Early last spring , and it looked real, but rolled over.  Did we just see it again, tag $20 & roll over? Time will tell from here.

  So Thursday night I wanted to see if there were BULLISH charts for Miners or  BULLISH charts for Equities to be found, and I found many of both. The last time I mentioned that bullish chart for SSNI, the markets dropped and it went with it, so at this point it is best to see what MONDAY has to offer   (  We may get a sneak peak in GOLD/SILVER,  since they start trading on Sunday night U.S. time).

By the way,  THIS obviously has me watching things in Miners very closely!  Any who saw my comments with STEVE Thursday and didnt check  EGI later that day ,  should see what happened.  WOW STEVE!  Then I saw  XRA!  Boom.   So now  I look at MUX & TRX , etc  and wonder,  will they POP too?  Still I am waiting for confirmation in Miners, but that is impressive.

~ALEX

SPARE CHARTS

  I have mentioned recently that I like the looks of SOLARS, STEEL setting up/ Aluminum stocks possibly bottoming,  ENERGY,  MINERS?? etc.    Below I am just going to just post some Basic charts of set ups I liked,  some that have  Popped and still look bullish. We’ll just have to see how  things play out Monday & next week  with the JOBS REPORT  release.  Have a great rest of your wkend and Monday trading!

SOL

MY

3 MOBILE STOCKS I was watching   ( 1 breaking out, 2 ready?)

CMCM

NQ

S  (Sprint)

X   DAILY & WEEKLY  for the watch-list  (  I Like AKS, STLD, SCHN  steel stocks set ups right now too.   Look at SCHN)

  My style  currently with  MINERS / ENERGY /  SOLARS / My EBOLA stocks last fall , ETC  often trades within BASES.  This chart shows how long & how much work a base can be,  but also the reward .

RALY

Please look these up on 6 month charts

GNE, GRH, BRZU, SSN , PACD, BAS (Confirmed A-B-C up to $9+)  etc etc etc .  There are SO MANY SET UPS.

I think next week could be great for traders, but first we need to see how the investors & traders handle that JObs report.