Checking the Charts

Friday the stock market is closed , but I have a lot to say after yesterday, so lets check the charts and see whats happening at the end of our trading week…

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In this chart Yesterday, I had pointed out that the NASDAQ had a gap to fill and support at the wedge, would it hold?

This is the chart from the close Wednesday…

 NASDAQ-  That was actually bounced off of the lower line.   Easy “Long” entry for nimble  traders that have been using TQQQ & SQQQ at the highs and lows of the wedge.   With futures down as I write, those nimble traders may get a second chance, but wait for a reversal again.  The wedge is nearing the Apex,  that MACD looks weak.  USE STOPS & HONOR THEM PLEASE.

IWM-  the small caps and micro caps held up better, A nice gap fill and reversal as expected, but I am now starting to see internal cracks in the small caps too.  I will monitor that going  forward.

Wednesday I pointed out this bullish pattern in OIL,  with cautionary note if it breaks down. It broke out higher.

WTIC DAILY – Nice volume on the past couple of up days. Trading range & ‘Base”.

Some energy stocks are doing very well, other aren’t even rising on days when OIL shoots up 4+% like today !  I decided for myself as a trader in front of the screen to trade leveraged ETF’s for oil  (Still holding BAS, EXXI , SZYM.  Sold REXX  as it lingers below the 50sma and traded UWTI).

Leveraged ETFs are for short term trades ,  they decay in sideways markets. I am NOT recommending them to everyone here , the same way I dont like to recommend NUGT, JUNG, DUST, JDST.   I know some here are experienced traders  , so I will mention this for those who feel that they can manage their own entry and exit.

For ex:  This is UCO  –  UCO & USO ( and UWTI ) Move similar to OIL itself. The charts look the same and so you would trade them the same.  I trade them within this “Base”  range for now.

The big story Wednesday was  GOLD /  SILVER  /  AND MINERS

What are they doing?   Today looked really bullish in many ways. 

Lets review-

  Cycle-wise , that whole sell off in Feb-March and trying to count daily cycles had most cycle specialists struggling ( and disagreeing) when it came to figuring out where we were.  I dont consider myself a cycle specialist, but I do know how they work and I do use them.  I was definitely struggling with cycle count too). 

SO using Cycles ,  I have been very cautious of where we could be.

Using just ‘Technical Analysis’,  things got bullish again–   You may recall that I got a special BUY signal on GDX RSI (2) . I bought NUGT & held for 3 days.  Since I expected a roll over into  an ICL  after GOLD tags the 50sma  ,I didnt hold my long positions.

-Below was some of our bullish looking technical analysis –

SILVER-  On March 11 –   I pointed out a “Stop run”. That is a  ‘buy’  in TECH ANALYSIS, because it presents  a low risk entry. That ended up being THE LOWS so far …

SILVER has been very strong since then, pulling back on 38%.

I posted this bullish GOLD chart March 31.  That is a break out & back test. I usually BUY those.

Today …boom!   It looks Bullish and can go higher, but may find resistance at the 200sma?  Also  Gold is on day 12 today, so it can & will eventually drop into a daily cycle low.  That will be a buy. 

I posted this in the WED report along with a bull flag.   As a trader I bought NUGT ,  once I saw the volumes in the first hour.  I do not have any idea how long I will be in this trade with a 3 day weekend upon us.  (Click on this or any chart)

I had posted the bullish version of GDX  on March 30,  the ‘Break out” had back tested.  ( but again I was still cautious thinking an ICL (deep lows) could be in front of us.  In order not to get emotional over a bullish chart, I  said that I was watching the inner ‘components’ of GDX-  (GG, ABX , NEM)  for clues.

So Wednesday –  Look at ABX  – this move was real, and I mentioned it in the ‘comments’ intra-day.  Big Volume & Price spread.   It completely swallowed the last 4 down days and even went higher.   Many Miners have formed nice bases.

 Let me explain my thinking the past few weeks

It seemed too early for an ICL, since they had been arriving roughly 5+ to 6 months apart.  It had only been about 4 months in March.  I drew this chart today to  point out that & 1 other thing.  I looked at how each 1st & 2nd daily cycle played out (Boxes) at past ICL’s also.  They all look pretty different.

IF this was the ICL  (Meaningful trade-able low) in March , its ‘starting point’  looks similar to the green box with a short run up & then a dip  (Green circle) like we just saw.  I added the projected path , a Run to the 200sma, sideways to a (  Daily cycle low DCL ), then higher. Just a guess, since they all played out a bit differently.

Please understand that at this point , there is no definite way for me to know if this is the ICL in March & it’s  going to just keep going higher,  or roll over like last October or other areas on the above chart when the daily cycle failed.

I also drew this for GDX, showing the cycle count that resembles last Nov- Dec.   Last Nov Miners ran up & dropped in the first daily cycle. It would indicate  that we may rise to the 200sma and find resistance later in the cycle.  A dip right back down for a daily cycle low .  Thats the buy.  See the Blue trendline down?   We may now break out , & That  could test this future break out and bring price right back here for a buying opportunity.

1.    A run higher & drop back down  happened that way in NOV – DEC ‘s  First Daily Cycle  ( see the green box on the left) .

2.   The money was made in that 2nd daily cycles rise.   We will recognize that DCL when it comes.

SUMMARY

 SO thats it for today.    Again, we have only one trading day left this week .     We have been watching Metals markets for clues as to when the next Deep Trade-able Lows would come in  (ICL) .  The action in GOLD, SILVER, and MINERS was surprising and now the question is , “What will happen next?” With Gold not trading Friday, Saturday, and resuming Sunday night- will people want to hold long positions?  Also on my mind is the thought that with the unrest in the Mid-East, would anyone want to be ‘short’ Gold going into a 3 day weekend?   It seems that if there was a chance of something related to further wars and crisis  breaking out over there, traders might close their short positions today .  That could push Gold higher .  The NEXT DCL ( Daily Cycle Low) will be buy-able whether we still drop into an ICL or whether its a 1st daily cycle low after an ICL.  Look back at all 2nd daily cycles and you’ll see good gains.

Many Miners now look quite bullish on their individual charts, so I am thinking  of  possibly taking a couple of positions if we get the normal pullback .  I will look for Low risk positions , as shown on this chart.   For the conservative trader/investor….The SAFE BUY is waiting for the next pullback into a daily cycle low.

  For those who like to look up their own charts   ( Tjis report took 4 hrs, I am out of time to collect , draw them up, and post here)  –

I am watching bullish set ups in SOLAR STOCKS  ( TSL, JKS,CSIQ,  SOL , CSUN JASO , etc ).  I still like many ENERGY Stocks ,  over the 50sma is getting important…..charts of  ANW, ALJ, NOG, GNE, CDXS, GTE, GPRE  and more actually  look great in various ways)  .    I like STEEL AND ALUMINUM  ( X, STLD, AKS, AA, CENX ) .  In the past I mentioned MEDIA stocks doing great, so look at  “MEG” .  On a down day this looks set to break out   ( I also follow Lions gate and NXST, SBGI, and a few others)  .

  Have a great day & 3 day weekend ! If we get a light volume pullback in Gold today, I will have a few MINERS CHARTS in the weekend report.  I cannot tell for sure if the ICL was in in March and that was a 1/2 cycle dip or not, but it does look Bullish and likely that Gold runs to the 200sma sooner than later.

~ALEX