SEARCH FOR CLUES

Lets discuss the overall markets and then I’ll tell you why I am looking for clues…

QQQ – Not much has changed, this takes time to play out, this was March 23

So we look at what happened since then…

The NASDAQ Composite trades a bit different than the QQQ, so we see the QQQ CHART  ( Above)  has wiggle room, but the NASDAQ Composite hit the wedge and dropped. We are right in the middle and closing in on the apex. MACD losing momentum.

I mentioned that small caps and micro caps looked like a better set up, and even though the the SPX was down 12 points and the NASDAQ was down 16 points,

The IWM was up pretty big Friday and Monday and still looks like it wants to hit $128

OIL–  still looks like  “Bottoming” action.  Look at the chart of last Thursday, Friday, Monday and now Tuesday…do I really need to keep posting charts of Natgas and Oil?  Not really – Its like watching paint dry.  I’ll show you Mondays and then Tuesdays .  Just watch the 50sma at the $48.50 area.

This is the area where I am starting to look for clues.  As the dollar has dropped,  GOLD SILVER & MINERS have staged a nice bounce/rally. As pointed out in the comments section by commenter Gary  , Silver really has looked quite strong . So are these solid lows for the metals or will we have another leg down ( As I have expected all along)?    AT this point, it could depend on the dollar.

$USD –  nearing a support area.  If the dollar bounces, we may get to look at our first reaction in the metals. I can see several possible scenarios, for now I will search for clues.

2 quick possible moves by Gold here .  Currently I see a possible mini wedge ( Bear flag) in Gold to $1200.  These are usually bearish and a DOLLAR bounce may cause this to break down.  OR…..

GOLD can also POP higher to the 50sma ( Drawn by me) and negate that wedge into a channel.  Maybe the dollar keeps dipping?.

SILVER does NOT have a wedge, it has surged higher , almost straight up.   I observed 2 very common things about this move in SILVER in the past,  so I will share 1 with you  here that I am looking for .  When SILVER  usually runs almost straight up in what looks to be short covering ( blue lines) it then suddenly POPS after getting to this point. 

I am watching to see if SILVER just POPS soon, if it does I need to examine other things, because that couldnt be a 3rd or 4th daily cycle, right?

 I looked at GOLD STOCKS and not a lot stood out, but I looked at  Silver stocks and found this in EXK (PAAS, SSRI, MVG), It kind of has the look of past ICL’s.  (  Note:   Last April it also did this before dropping)

I DID expect this run in EXK  on March 19 , when I drew this target near $2.35. We arent there yet

SO I looked again at GOLD STOCKS and they’re  not as impressive as some silver stocks . Some are weak or ordinary  looking, but  when I looked at NEM, AEM, RGLD,   They were a bit Impressive big-picture.   This bounce wasn’t impressive at all , but again, this  big picture  chart is.

Keeping in mind that this bounce wasnt that great in NEM or GG so far, I can foresee  it this way too.  A normal A-B-C correction is not this huge, but we are talking Miners and that last drop was BIG,  the next could be too.

One of the Gold Stocks that held up the best through each cycle drop was RIC.  What does it look like on a weekly basis?

Ric could stand 1 more drop and be fine according to normal tech analysis movements,  too I.M.H.O.

SO I AM LOOKING FOR CLUES and the dollar may hold the key. I will be observing these things as they unfold.

I expected this type move from the start, and so far this leg up is fulfilling it. I drew GOLD to $1250 and it could go to $1225 at least.

GDX – Meanwhile my wedge pattern on the gdx 30 minute is crawling sideways. That can turn it into a channel.

SO I am searching for clues and it takes time for those to play out . Thanks Gary,  for mentioning Silver and giving me a homework assignment.

Lets look at some trade ideas that are on my watch-list .

Remember when I was pointing this out on TWTR in Jan ?  I had 3 different TWTR charts in January.

It is just breaking higher again and remains   a bullish set up.  This could be a long term hold based on higher lows/ higher highs this yr.

SOLAR stocks look great.  I’ve mentioned TSL, JKS, CSIQ, JASO, FSLR, etc .  YGE & SOL CSUN are forming bases

Yesterday I pointed out this measured move

Now SCTY  caught my eye – This “BASE” is looking ready to move higher.  The Lows appear to be in (Red Arrows).

I pointed out KITE (Pharma)  pulling back – Right now it sits on the 50sma

PSUN – Bullish set up

I believe this was on the watchlist I gave in the wkend report.  I bought SSNI at $10 yesterday.  I still consider it a buy .  These TIGHT consolidations after a straight line move up  often do a 2nd straight line move higher to their target. This is a strong buy in my opinion, because the stop is below the consolidation and isnt likely to be seen again. Earnings came out & caused the Feb run up.

OVAS – similar set up, but not a straight line move.  What a stellar stock this has been and it pulled back a little after I captured this chart.

ALSO on the watchlist  HYH.    Bullish set up, but may go sideways  ( orange box) 

Have a great trading day…I will be away from my desk a lot today, so I wont be answering questions real time.

~Alex