Waiting On The Fed Again

It’s Wednesday and again the FED seems to be adding uncertainty and volatility to the various markets. Lets look at some charts, not too much has changed since yesterdays report.

QQQ March 16

Here is a different view and how things progressed yesterday, March 17…

QQQ – supports

SPX – Also a different way of looking at it. It didn’t pull back to it’s normal support area , but may break to new hgihs and then drop down. In January you can see that it didn’t quite reach that area too.

Commodities just look heavy.  OIL, NATGAS, GOLD, SILVER , etc all look to be struggling to get off the ground.

$NATGAS –  finally tried breaking above the 50sma, and the volume increased.  Its a good sign that it couldn’t be sold off and wants to run higher, but as I write it has dipped back under the 50sma. Maybe a FED moment will clarify?

$WTIC-  With OIL, it is also looking HEAVY, but the energy stocks continue to give the appearance of finding buyers. OIL inventories are high , so supply / Demand calls for lower prices.  I want to see OIL close the week higher to put in a reversal, or I would have to wonder about follow through downside next week too.  Maybe it is waiting on the  FED?

GOLD – I admit, Gold and Miners are a hazy picture.  Will the FED move them? Likely yes.    I cannot tell exactly where we are heading from here , I have no edge as to whether this wants to just give it up & drop, or bounce and drop.  I have mentioned that I am thinking the best trade is ahead of us, one that we can do very well with, but for now I am not long or short. (Click this chart & read it)

GDX similar.  Waiting on the FED?

  WARNING:  I want to remind everyone  ( If you are trying to trade Metals / Miners ) on FED afternoons, you often get a strong move in one direction.  That can be a spike, then it often reverses direction into the close.  Thursday morning it then goes in whatever direction it wants.  It is extremely tough to play, unless we have been in a 4th daily cycle and dropped a lot going into the Fed mtg. THEN I would say she may push us into an ICL.  At this point we could just spike in both directions and whip saw people around.  The GDX chart above really shows that either direction is possible at this point.

Note:   This report is a little later and a little  shorter than I expected.  In New England last night and today we are having 60 M.P.H. wind gusts. Many trees are falling now that the ground has thawed out ( its muddy)  and I lost power overnight.  This morning it keeps blinking with the wind. As I try to grab charts and draw them up I am continually losing the info before I have time to save it, so this report is the best I could do under those circumstances.  I lost an Oil chart, Energy charts, XLE, SPX ,  $USD, etc etc .    Thanks for understanding.