Did You See It? Traders To Your Stations

Did you see what I saw yesterday?  I had mentioned in the weekend and daily reports  what I was looking for,  and by the end of the day I was fairly certain that we got what I was looking for . First lets review the markets and then discuss other sectors.

Again, I had been shorting the Nasdaq at prior highs using TZA, but I stopped last week and pointed out why last wkend…

What do I see now in the NASDAQ, SPX, and DJIA?…

NASDAQ – resistance again, but also a possible break out could be in the works.  TQQQ & UPRO are higher risk ways to play this as a long position.

The OIL chart from yesterday is still valid, OIL actually looks to be in a bottoming process here.  That process CAN fail and give way , but so far it is holding up well. Along with OIL…

I mentioned buying NATGAS, pointed out what to look for as a break out approached with this chart ( I bought UGAZ 2 days ago- I do NOT recommend 3xETF’s here. It is far too risky, but the “traders” here know what to do).

NATGAS Feb 11 – ‘possible’ path

$GOLD & MINERS-  we are very close to a daily cycle low. I have mentioned that the 3rd daily cycle has been week in all the other bear mkt rallies ( often double tops with a false break out spike).   It is up to you whether you will try to profit from a brief rally, or choose to focus elsewhere.  Encouraging is the fact that Various MINERS look good, and have held up very well  (CDE, NG, PZG, etc) , but …that can change , see HMY for example, so remain cautious.  .

GOLD– possible support, may reverse higher here ( Now left translated = weaker)

GDX – possible support, a break of $21.40 is a start, break of the blue trend line confirms a new daily cycle

In the comments section yesterday I said it looked like GDX was close to a reversal higher on an intra-day chart.  I was watching this 2 hr chart –

ENERGY

IMPORTANT:  I have mentioned watching for Energy Stocks to pullback lightly and find support IF they have bottomed.  This would show that they may be  preparing  for another leg higher. I also pointed out how the MINERS did this…

1. Some Miners were running up in DEC to the 50sma, then dropping slightly , building steam to break through.

2. Others broke above the 50sma and then dropped to test it , before running higher, so …

3. We look for reversals in these areas as possible low risk entries

Remember, there were Energy stocks that I pointed out to buy first as LEADERS  ( OAS, DNR, NOG, EXXI, AXAS, BAS,  etc) and then we looked at buying some LAGGERS after the leaders peaked.  It stands to reason that Those LEADERS should reverse first. They have, and many looked like a BUY yesterday , they are still a buy today , now we want to see if they progress.

The Leaders:   These could have been bought here, or can be bought here with a stop somewhat below the 50sma  ( use your own risk preference, how much below that price can you afford to give up if the trade goes against you?).  You can also watch how these play out  (Seccess or Fail) and if they succeed, you can enter the laggers  ( GDP, SFY, HERO, NADL, etc ) with more confidence.  IF THEYGAP OPEN, some may want to wait and see if the gap closes,  others may take 1/2 a position in case it just runs, take the other 1/2 if the gap closes and the support area holds.  Use your own strategy based on your risk .

These are buys as of yesterdays close-  or wait for other laggers to do the same

OAS

EXXI

This was my first NOG recommendation, then look at yesterday

NOG FEB 11 (Acting nicely)

EXXI first recommended (buy at $2.50)

EXXI (still acting correctly, reversal so far)

AXAS- is a buy

REXX FEB 11

SD – this drop below the 50sma may have shook me out if I was in, but then a nice reversal immediately made it a BUY

THE ABOVE are also examples of what we are looking for in the ones that didnt reverse yesterday  ( NADL, GDP, SFY, HERO, WRES, and others that lagged last time.

 And I found a possible new contender  FXEN.  It was around $3.00  2  months ago, a run back there is over 100%. Other energy stocks like NOG, EXXI, SD, REXX, etc have done close to 100%  already. Its not impossible to return to former highs quickly.

Those who like stocks near or over $10,  look at  DNR, OAS, SDRL, ( I love LGCY if it reverses at the 50sma) .  These stocks are buys that have reversed at the 50sma. They may not take off right away, they can flounder around the 50sma,  scoop them up & use a stop.  Your downside risk is small, your upside potential is better. THEY ARE ENERGY & OIL…so remain alert to the fact that they are bottoming and that is a process, it can include volatility.

SOLAR STOCKS look to be set up correctly too. I pointed this out already (chart below), lets see if there has been any progress?

JASO /  YGE  /  and  SOL  – these can be bought here before they break out

YGE – I’d buy it

SOL IS A BUY HERE

So there are many set ups that look BULLISH to me.  There is risk in ANY trade you take, and especially during a bottoming process you can get volatility. The ENERGY stocks can be accumulated in my opinion, SOLAR STOCKS are a buy here , and you need to put your stop underneath support in the form of moving averages that they have bounced off of or trend-line support like the bottom magenta line on the above SOL stock , for example.  I believe we may be very close to another run up in ENERGY, SOLAR STOCKS , Clean energy , And possibly Miners.  I do not know what kind of a rally will unfold from the miners, so I am more cautious in this 3rd daily cycle.

Therefore  ENTER MINERS AT YOUR OWN RISK, but the trade may be a good % -Gainer for 5 – 8 trading days. Another draw back if GOLD puts it’s reversal in & runs higher is that the U.S. Mkts are closed Monday, GOLD trades Sunday night onward, So trades in the Metal or Miners may miss a good day of Gold Gains in that limited time to trade them.

 ENERGY & SOLARS look to be a buy yesterday or right now ,  others that didnt reverse may follow today.  Yes there is always  possible volatility near lows , but I expect another run higher. You didnt miss it yesterday, though buying a reversal is what I like to do for a low risk entry.  You may wish to Wait for NADL, SFY, GDP, etc for their reversal?  Or just look at the above charts of  BAS, SD, HK, REXX, EXXI .  They havent taken off with out us, they reversed at support so far and look to be acting correctly . They look to be set up for higher prices in the coming days /weeks.    I wish you profitable trades.

~ALEX

For those that dont mind beaten down /  lower priced stocks ,  I still love the set up on NADL in the chart below and it is apparently bull flagging  above $2  here.

NADL reminder