Hanging In There?

Volatility is here and the markets are rocking and rolling.  If you have been reading my thoughts here,  you know which ones are ‘Buy the dips’ and which are not.   Lets review.

I said that I was interested in this , for one thing. A break above 22 would be ‘Interesting’ to say the least. Do you know where we are now?

Well, the markets gapped down big yesterday and  and thus Vix gapped open to 24 recently and then sold off back under that line to $21.50 yesterday .  Is that the end of it?

I now think that the markets are going to sell off, possibly down to test OCT high volume lows. I have kind of thought this the whole time, and based those thoughts on the idea  (As mentioned) that former leaders  AMZN, GOOG, TSLA, etc  are ugly and already at their Oct lows.   I am still wondering about  the strength of  IBB, IWC, IWM, RUT. IWM has now given up the 50sma, but the others remain above and my theory of Small Cap and Micro cap strength  vs  Consolidation in QQQ,SPX,DJIA  still remains possible.

I was tempted to try recommending  FAZ or TZA ,  but there is still a buy the dip attempt propping this market up , so its risky.  A TAG of the 50sma and fail again might be a low risk entry if we see that.

  Doesnt this look  exactly like what I started talking about 2 weeks ago? Weakness and a struggle at the 50sma? I just have a hard time ‘timing’ this and tza has decay. Those who are good at shorting may want to consider shorting.

$NATGAS

I mentioned Jan 7  to watch NATGAS.  Buy above the 13 SMA and I said I thought it looked close.  I posted this and another chart as a guide.

Yesterday was a Buy (actually  possibly the day before, but that was riskier). I hope some caught it intraday. UGAZ screems but is leveraged so be careful. I target the 50sma first, but $natgas is explosive  (Pun intended)  and can just rocket higher.  I would LOVE to see a dip for a day or two, maybe 1/2 way down that candle to allow for buying. It is only a quick trade if you missed it and want to try to scalp a day higher at this point. It could hit the 50sma in a day or two.

Now for GOLD & MINERS

I want to mention something here…you have to take it for what its worth. I  Posted an intraday alert Tuesday and mentioned that it could become an engulfing candle,  you may want to “remove Leverage” and honor stops, even take some profit TO BUY THE DIPS.   By no means did I want to incite  “Fear”  or negative emotions. If you re-read my post, I posted charts of what I would be looking for, knowing that I wouldnt be here Wednesday .   If it got worse than what I had drawn,  then one would have to consider a deeper drop into a DCL.  I posted this  showing a GAP , Trendline , and Moving average.

I mentioned that even if we were dropping to a daily cycle low,  it could go sideways like this  (Again,  No fear,  No Panic), possible buy opportunity.

repeatedly I have mentioned that this looks like 2012,  and the dips were shallow. ALSO notice bearish engulfing was only a 2 day event then. No Fear No Panic. You buy if the 9 or 10 sma holds.

I need to address something here,  I almost hate to,  but I got several emails and so I need to mention this.  I will specifically mention a  nameless commenter   (and he can email me  for  a full refund if he likes) or stay and learn , I like him.  No ill will , I promise,    but this has to be mentioned to help people here.   My mid day post was about normal profit taking, removing leverage , and possibly buying the dips.    A commenter came on and posted about  “Banksters” and “Manipulation”  taking this thing down.   When he said ”  Big money just manufactured an exit by breaking the triangle and then handing the bag off to over zealous retail traders right before they terminate the intermediate rally.”   Is that ‘fact’ or unfounded fear on a 1 day blip?    Sadly , some linked his comments to my post about selling  (Forgetting that I mentioned to look to by the dip).  Afterall, who would buy the dip if they feel Banksters are outsmarting the foolish retail buyers?   I said look to buy the dips . SO I get a number of emails asking me to explain the banksters.   huh?

   Understand that  posting your fears here  is  fine …we can all comment what is on our minds.   Sadly, some people were influenced by his fears & linked it to my post thinking those were my ideas too ?    : (       I tried to refute the comment, but had to leave and didnt see other following comments.  Some have  confused his emotional reaction to a 1 day event   (1 day events do happen a lot –  its the follow thru that tells the story)   with my post  &  became afraid to trade.  I hope that isnt you.

  Without at all being harsh,  I just need to make something clear for my readers.   I have known that poster for yrs, I like him just fine.    I  actually at times dont know why he is a paying subscriber if he doesnt believe a thing I’ve said, but thats fine too.      Let me remind readers of this….2 or 3 weeks ago this same commenter came on when Gold was down pre-mkt.  I had Just posted that it was another stop run, and he came on  ‘implying’ that I’m wrong & said   ” Gold is in a triangle pattern, I advice that no one does any buying until gold breaks out of that triangle. ”    Doesnt that tell you  that he has had no position to date?     He recommended that we dont buy , so he likely wasnt.     So You can see that he doesnt believe the charts as presented by me anyways.       He missed the entire move that we have enjoyed so far in Miners ,  possibly due to fear of Banksters and other theories .    Thats fine.     It should be noted : He posts only when Gold is red and fear is in the air. He never posts ” Gold is up $20, Banksters are buying,  Lets join the smart traders”    Right?   SO I just want my readers to recognize that some commenters only post when Gold is down and they think I might be wrong. I have never recieved a nice job or well done from that commenter.   Thats ok too…I’m just saying that if you want to listen to him, be aware of these things  and draw your own conclusions.   Enough said,  I’m not wanting to be  harsh or critical,  but some were mislead here  –  Again.   Does he have bad intent?  NO –  I dont think so, I think he just wants to come on and make a contrary call , and one day it will be a cycle top and a drop to a dcl and he can say he was right.   For now?   I hated writing this , but as in the past , He has warned you for weeks to avoid my trades  and I get emails of concern that  “Commenter  so & so said this…did you even consider that possibility?”     I cant answer them anymore,  Actually,  I just wont, its quite time consuming and takes me from charting.    From this point on,  you have been notified.  We see things from totally different eyes and he is free to post whatever.

  $GOLD –   The triangle was broken Tuesday and dropped back inside.  NORMAL.

   I have said that with the bear mkt in Metals,  we have been conditioned to fear the Miners .     I maintain that The charts are NOT ugly.  The charts show normal action when pressing on resistance.   Often at resistance,  price  hits it,  hits it ,  and then BREAKS Through.   Normal action at former highs.

GOLD is pushing resistance with volume  & NOT selling off.  See the 10sma –  Its bearish if it sells off with volume.    This is not.

Today it broke out .  This is GOLD Currently.  I expected a deeper dip,  dont be surprised if it does.  If not, it may bull flag and take off higher.

Yesterday  I wasnt here and I apologize for that  ( My mother is fine and thanks you for all your well wishes),  but when pullbacks come about in a healthy looking market, you look for low risk entries where you can place a stop if you are wrong.

GDX –  again,  note these  bearish engulfings in 2012  had 2 day drop in 2012

This is what I had my eyes one ,  Gap & ( I show 9sma,  I usually use the  10sma)

GDX JAN 14

I’m going to zoom in and show you GDX  HRLY  /  an intraday chart.  Remove fear / emotions, and bankster bias and what do you see?  Scary or normal? It was a low risk buy  at the gap fill / organe support line –  when the trend line recovered into the close.

GDXJ  same time frame. Gap fill, trend line,  BUY THAT REVERSAL

So all fear aside and just using charts in an unbiased manner,  yesterday was a buy and your stop was a break down from there. 

Some miners sold off nicely too and since cycles are a bit hazy for many,  you have to use technical and just assume that pullbacks will come.

I bought AG around $4 and I actually got out of my AG position up below $7  (I actually Accidentally stopped out on a trailing stop , but it worked fine) and wanted to buy at $5.50.  I dont think it’ll get there now, but I drew this for a reader who had asked about it Tuesday.  Yesterday it tagged the 10sma and that may be all it drops too,  not the horizontal support line.  (I still own my SSRI ).

Going forward I think the trend is our friend in Miners.   It is still a Buy The Dips time period , at LOW RISK AREAS.     I’m not just trying to say  BUY HERE and SELL HERE,   I’m trying to teach you all to know how to buy and how to sell when charts indicate that the equitey is acting correctly.  If you can buy on a down day realizing that these Miners are in up-trends   (without giving into fear and bankster theories),  you can make money.    Yes there will be pullbacks along the way and some dips may be deeper,  but use the charts to guide you and get out if they tell you to.

Some here did add on yesterdays  did and told me that yesterday  (before Golds pop).  I think they deserve a little applaud & I hope that was you too.

As we move forward,  not much has changed,  normal girations id  the metals and miners and SPX NASDAQ and DOW  are sideways chop with a possible drop coming . Thanks for being here and I apologize for part of this post.  It wasted valuable time and I hated posting that anyways , but its a repeat situation.  Its a one time post here, I wont address it again.    Some didnt need to read that ,  and some did need to see it.  I like everyone here,  Bulls and Bears ,  and we dont have to all be on the same page.   Thats what makes a market.  When EVERYONE is Bullish metals / Miners  –  We’re prob at a top.  I will likely cover more of the SPX, QQQ, DOW  tomorrow ,  but if they rally to the 50sma and lose steam,  it may be a low risk short !!

~ALEX

P.S.  Yesterday I looked at energy,  really liked  SN, PE, KEG, CPE, AXAS, WTI  because of the way they approached their former lows . I’ll try to discuss energy tomorrow.