JAN 8 Follow up / Quick Turns
Well I was hoping I could use this picture again , what a Fast moving beauty! : ) Actually , speaking of fast moves , this is an update to this mornings post. As we watch things unfold here , and I mentioned what I was looking for, I hope you are seeing what I am seeing.
I was watching for a tag of the 50sma, maybe the 10sma on light volume & Reversal lower as a possible short opportunity.
Is BUY THE DIP working again for the general MKTS?
POSTED THESE this A.M.
This is the reality as it played out . It is improving rapidly.
This gives it a more BULLISH look. It MIGHT MIGHT MIGHT suck in more longs and give it up at the end of the day, but for now we re-gained some important ground. I wanted to write an UPDATE , so you can watch things moving forward as I am.
I scanned a few quick charts and I am now seeing somewhat bullish set ups if they hold. They could be low risk, because SOME recently tuned higher, stops can be placed just below important areas if one wanted to try the long side . Let me show you some interesting change .
GOOG was looking bad, Lower highs and breaking down. This reversal could be a good trade now. STOP UNDER TODAY
It may tag the 50sma, it may even break out higher ?
FEYE ( I like the set up, but volume seems to light to break out) Put on watchlist
FOLD broke out of a cup & handle , but gave it up. It can be watched for improvement
Previously mentioned stocks like CVM , it was 63 cents , but the weekly looked great .
Popped to 70 cents
CVM, Popped to 75 cents and now pulling back. Now it might be starting a channel that is trade able (But at lows, close stop)
CMCM was noted at $15.42 , very tight.
It has follow thru today , hitting $19 already
SO I am just doing this quick update to show 3 things –
1. It may be back to small caps and Micro caps are important to watch moving forward as long candidates
2. The MKTS do not look like short candidates here, unless they somehow reverse and give it up.
3. This does NOT change anything with Metals and Miners post earlier.
Could we give up todays gains at the end of the day in SPY, QQQ, DOW? THAT COULD HAPPEN, Price could dip into the close under the moving averages and THAT might trigger selling. For now we have to play it the way we see it and I just wanted to point this out in case some were thinking of “Shorting”.
Looking at the ones that I said were ugly ( GOOG, AMZN, PCLN, etc ) I see a little improvement , Even possible trade able reversals off the lows. So we stay frosty and keep watch for follow thru. Some trades can be taken if you are in front of a computer, if not…PATIENCE may be well rewarded this year with some longer term BUY & HOLD set ups forming later – if the small cap / micro cap theory that I have been sharing works out. I will be able to watch for certain set ups going forward that can break out & run . We may get channels that head higher and we can enter at low risk pullbacks and sell at the tops of the channels.
Robert, I’m starting to wonder if they’re going to try to take gold down over the next week. Actually, I hope that they do as I’d like to buy some GDX on a dip. I had a very small trading position that I locked in an 8% gain yesterday and I’m hoping to have the opportunity to buy it again should the upcoming economic news cause a brief correction in the miners. (I have a longer-term position in the metals sector)
CS
Looking at GDX today , its dropping on light volume so far and the 10sma or the 50sma is a target down below that I can picture it hitting. It could drop there slowly , or it can go sideways until the 10sma catches up. Thats kind of what I am watching right now.
Also – I looked at AAU , ASM, GORO, and a few others and I till see some nice upside movement coming right off of a bounce on their 10sma.
LOL!! Just when I thought I was getting the hang of this…
Just sold AAU this am when it completely blew through its UBB (yesterday). Looking at GORO but just above 50dma so can’t decide whether to nibble here or practice my zen like qualities (which are close to non-existent).
AAU, Maybe dropping to fill that gap at $1
I really like TWTR here, but thats another subject all together : )
I am def concerned but at least it bounced off the lows into the close. It could also be pre nfp jitters as every big economic report last few years has been a great time to destroy the sector. I will say if they ripped it higher pre market would cause a lot of pain and short covering and lock people out who sold the dip… Maybe once they punish those folk and reward those who have stayed long.
You called it , despite being concerned ; )
Alex, again appreciate the index updates. Went long SPY based on charts and potential for bounce. Not playing all-time highs but at least a few days of gains. Sitting up big right now. Looking for fairly hot NFP numbers tomorrow and then will probably eject out as we go from some into heavy resistance and take profits before we have a chance to roll over.
Good thing I was able to get out this morning . I knew I’d be able to watch closely today. End up making enough on bounce play to pay for a full year of ChartFreak. In 48 hours!
SPY and GLD trading inverse on short term today. Do you think mid day is a potential add for GDX with markets looking to rollover or would you hold off?
Any thoughts on SAND? Under performing today, add candidate to catch up or better to look elsewhere?
Thanks!
Cason, Nice trade!
GDX can be added on dips , if you know in advance that it can dip even lower. I watch the 10sma and 50sma on GDX ( or 9 sma 8 ema …they tend to bounce there). GDX can just go sideways like 2012 or may 2014 and not drop too much, so I am just careful not to try to over trade at this point. Sell some on runs of a couple days and buy dips , but I wont get out & try to rebuy (at this point) . Hope that helps?
SAND and IAG both dropped to the 10sma, I like them there.
Alex, appreciate the feedback. I had a limit order for more GDX during late morning pullback but missed filling by 2 cents. Did not chase. Instead I added SAND since it was lagging. In fact threw SPY profits into in – was 75 shares for Free! SAND had a downgrade today was likely reason for underperformance; could/should catch up next week bullish bias in complex remains. Battle over 1230 downtrend line/13 week EMA could be epic next week. Looking forward to next update. 🙂
2 cents!!!
I watched SAND, and it acted beautifully today. It dropped to the 10sma yesterday , so I was watching to see if it’d break down. Sweet reversal right in time. It COULD just make the next leg up or go sideways , whatever, but you have free shares : ) nice work
article on rebalancing commodities next week.
http://www.bidnessetc.com/32215-uso-expected-to-bounce-on-commodity-indices-rebalancing/
Thank You Shermo
Hi Alex
Hi Beek ( That is the smallest comment ever) lol
Also wanted to comment that I keep seeing bears piling on in social media as you have. Shorting time and time again on each pop with the “this stuff can’t actually be going up, it’s going to breakdown any second” lines. Which I find really interesting as this is the inverse of bulls last 3 years with “it can’t keep going down”. A character change does seem to be in play. Will look for dip-buying advice as we see how next week plays out. Very satisfied with service so far!!