QUICK REPORT

Just a quick run through since we have just 1 trading day left in 2014 and it ‘Should Be’  a light volume day ,  since many will be leaving early to prepare for any evening activities.   I’ll start with QQQ.  I posted his chart yesterday and said it looked like we could are stalling and could begin to pullback…

This is what happened Tuesday  …

AUDIO      http://www.screencast.com/t/YMnRPXylcuQ3

QQQ – We dropped ,  but look at the last “recovery’ from the sell off in the Q’s.  Notice that it did NOT drop below the 10sma for almost 2 months ,  so I will be watching that Wednesday and Friday and see if this is just a normal pause before making new highs,  or is there something else happening.   (The same goes for the SPX)

Interestingly –  on this holiday week between Christmas and new Years ,  Volume was rather normal in Metals and Miners yesterday . Normal for a regular day,  but that means it s considered rather  high volume for a holiday week.

GOLD was constructive . We broke the overhead trend line,  closed above the 50sma and had decent volume .   We also broke above the Dec 22 candle ,  which was likely the DCL.   So This was  ALL within the timing band for a low  (Which seems to be confirmed now that it was 5 days ago) .  We should move higher from here , though we could ‘pause’ on a Wednesday , Dec 31  last day of the year.  We’ll see.

GDX & GDXJ  had nice volume too.  It seems that accumulation is taking place at lows and still goes rather unnoticed.  GDX was held down by the 50sma, I am looking forward to a break & Close above that.  That will draw more buyers in I.M.O.

You want to see more than just a POP in Gold.  You want to see accumulation of Miners,  you want to see them form a “Base” ,  you want to see sell-off s ease up.  Isnt that what we have been seeing?  Here are just a couple of stocks  (Miners)  that have a constructive set up.

SAND   ( Last week ,  DEC 24 –  looked like a constructive base  as it attempted to overtake the 50sma )

Today it went up over 10% and closed over 9% higher.  ( It could just surge above this range if gold moves higher , or it may go sideways for a bit in this range). Technicals are strengthening.

I had been pointing out the constructive set up in IAG too.  It ran up 100% from the Nov lows.

   This was DEC 24 ,  also above its 50sma already and the pullback was shallow.

Dec 30 ,   IAG was up 12%

AG –  Yesterday I was asked where I would add  to AG, and I said that  the dip to fill that gap  (And the 10sma was down there) would likely be safe.  Today it too popped almost 8% .  It was held back by the 50sma,  some follow through on GOLD / SILVER  might help push some of these over their resistance areas.  This is also an inverse H&S pattern.    It could be bought with a POP & close above the 50sma too,  especially if you see GOLD/SILVER running higher.

SO things are progressing  along,  rather slower then I thought it would, but in the past when bases formed  at lows instead of a quick pop & run (like yesterdays report on 2012)  the next leg up was quite accelerated.   I am hoping for / expecting something similar in January, especially now that tax loss selling is out of the way.  As I write this  , it is Tuesday Night and Wednesday I will be watching for some follow through in Metals,  and if that happens , we may get some nice pushes above the 50sma on a few miners too.  Friday is the first trading day of Jan 2015 ,  but  next week should bring everyone back from vacation and may also help to clarify things a little more.

My Friday report will depend on what happens Wednesday. Thanks for being here and if you’re planning on going out to celebrate  –  please be safe and we’ll see you back here Friday Morning.

~ALEX