Friday March 20 – T.G.I.F.

. LOOK AT THIS CHART BELOW!  IT CERTAINLY HAS NOT BEEN AN EASY 2025. The markets do not like uncertainty and we are in the process of cleaning up the excessive exuberance. The only comfort here is that this is how 2025 started out too, with all of Trumps surprise tariffs, talk of inflation, etc. Maybe a strong drop into an ICL will give us another V-Bottom and strong rally after that. The Fed discussed that the economy still looks relatively healthy. I’ll discuss this more in the weekend report.

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SPX –

We have seen reversal after reversal looking for out next dcl. Look at day 29, 33, and 37 and you’ll see those reversals, but this was the day after the Fed Day selloff, and it tried to regain the 200sma by the close.  Let’s see what happens here on Friday after the day 41 reversal.

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SPX – If the SPX falls much further, it will break below the ICL and became a failed daily cycle. Something to watch for: We basically need to see upside on Friday, or this could become a failed daily cycle.

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YESTERDAY I MENTIONED THIS:

We have mixed markets again, because the IWM did not break to new lows (yet?). More selling could bring it to the 200sma.

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THE IWM did break the day 21 low now on day 29, and then we got a solid reversal higher to close the day green. This may be enough to give us a dcl. That was a strong Post-Fed day really, being able to close green after that massive gap down.

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WTIC – Oil is on day 23 on Friday, and we could drop into a half cycle low, or we could continue to chop along. Most likely, Oils short term path will be based on the War in Iran.

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REMINDER: I’ve been discussing he USD & RESISTANCE.

THE USD March 13: The USD made it through my first area of resistance and is at the next line. THIS could cause the USD to ‘pause, chop, and drop’ a little. If it does, Gold could chop and pop higher, and it IS due for a dcl.

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THE USD does continue to pause and drop lower at resistance, as expected.

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GOLD dropped lower on day 32 and then started to bounce back. I’ve been saying in recent reports that when using cycles, we expect a dcl around day 32, right? This could be the low for that first daily cycle.

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SILVER also gave us a reversal.

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GDX #!: Miners often exaggerates the move of the metals, and it did exaggerate the selling here. Gold and Silver did not break recent lows, but The GDX ETF shows that the January / February lows were taken out and prices dropped back to the October prices.

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GDX – On March 13th I mentioned that we could see a bounce, but I only thought that we’d see a H&S and then more selling.  Well…

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GDX -This selling was much deeper than anticipated for a first daily cycle. The first daily cycle is usually stronger than the later daily cycles (the 3rd or 4th). This selling had high volume too, and it may indicate that the selling for the 2nd and 3rd daily cycle will also become intense, so it may not even bounce up high enough for a H&S Pattern.

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As mentioned in my last report, even the formerly strong Miners like EGO, IAG, KGC, HMY, etc are seeing strong profit taking too. A drop from $51 peak to $31 is giving quite a bit of the gains back, especially if you entered late. This may be the time to consider selling the bounce if you didn’t sell the February bounce.

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 I hope everyone has a Good day Friday and an even better weekend!

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN #1 – This move really does continue to look very similar to the last consolidation / Cycle.

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BITCOIN #2 – Taking a count from the last low we can see our run to the first half cycle dip at day 31 and then a run higher again. These usually last roughly around 60 days, so we could get another bounce higher from here and then a drop, or just more chop and then a drop.

 

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MARA – I have mentioned that despite the strong selling in Bitcoin from the peak, WULF, CIFR, IREN, HUT, and a few others are not selling off as much.  Well yesterday I noticed that with the general markets gapping way down and bitcoin staying red, MARA has a pretty good reaction to the markets being down and Bitcoin being down too. If I had to guess, I’d say that MAYBE the lows are in for MARA and it can base out until Bitcoins final lows are in place. In other words…

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MARA – I’m not saying that this is about to run back above $20 right now, but it is possible that the lows are in and they may get retested as a base forms. When Bitcoin bottoms in the 4th year low, it can then show some strength and run higher, back to the former highs and more. I will be looking for constructive bases when Bitcoin puts in a low.

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WULF – And when I mention that WULF, HUT, CIFR, IREN , etc are ot selling off as much as Bitcoin, I’m certainly not saying that it has been an easy ride for anyone with a ‘buy & hold’ position, but WULF is much closer to the highs than Bitcoin is, right? If Bitcoin drops again to a new low, let’s say $40,000…

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If Bitcoin drops again to a new low, let’s say $40,000 and you see WULF near the 200sma, maybe near $11, that may be a nice entry. I’m going to keep an eye on this sector and will be ready to buy the better set ups when the time comes.