Wednesday March 18th – Fed Wednesday
Today is the F.O.M.C. Meeting. Enough said there, right? Expect volatility at 2 p.m..
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I used this chart of The SPX to show that I have divided our ’rounding top’ into 2 medium size daily cycles. The first dcl on day 38 and now our lowest low is on day 37. IS THIS DAY 37 LOW THE DCL? …
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SPX – 2 days later and we have now spent 2 days above the last reversal, so there is a chance that we have a dcl, but….today is the F.O.M.C. Meeting (Fed Day)
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So far the SPX couldn’t get above the 20 ema, but I think that it can get a bit higher to continue to give us that rounding tip pattern and maybe 7 days above the dcl.
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In fact, I drew this chart is yesterdays report. This bounce out of a dcl can also top possibly within 7-10 days. See the chart.
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That being said, I have been saying that we want to try to find stronger stocks and stronger sectors now, and then when we drop into an ICL, we may see which stocks hold up better than others. MU and TSEM are at new highs. Drone, OIL, Aluminum, and Rare Earth stocks are doing well.
ONDS was up 7% yesterday. This is bouncing better than the NASDAQ & SPX.
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RCAT was up 9% and is near the highs (RCAT has earnings after the bell and after the Fed), we’ll see if this can hold up like UMAC did after its’ earnings beat. Notice that the markets chopped lower with lower lows and RCAT did not.
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RKLB and other aerospace stocks Popped yesterday too, after crawling sideways and chopping sideways while the markets made lower lows repeatedly.
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WTIC – Oil is trying to continue higher as promises of a ‘temporary fix’, hundreds of millions of barrels of the strategic Oil reserves being released, doesn’t really seem to be helping. This is only day 20 of maybe 50, so this can continue, but we also could see a dip (half cycle) if the news is favorable for Oil supplies.
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REMINDER:
THE USD made it through my first area of resistance and is at the next line. THIS could cause the USD to ‘pause, chop, and drop’ a little. If it does, Gold could chop and pop higher, and it IS due for a dcl.
THE USD is pulling back as expected. The Fed decision could cause a bounce or more selling.
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A Bounce by the Fed may give us that a-b-c drop that I mentioned here. This would be a drop to the 200sma.
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GOLD did not make a new low, but it also didn’t bounce very much.
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UPDATE 6 a.m. : GOLD did make a new low overnight, so this would be day 31.
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SILVER has a low on day 26, so I feel that it needs to drop today, and I guess the fed Day could push it lower.
GDX was down 42 cents and is actually at a longer term trend line. It is also quite oversold.
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The markets remain pretty much the same and so our the expectations. Today is a fed day and these days are always volatile and tricky from 2 p.m. to the close. Do we have a dcl and the markets push higher with the Fed Speech? Gold and Silver are due for a low, so will they sell off and reverse higher into the close? We’ll just have to wait and see. Enjoy your Wednesday trading.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN has moved above the 50sma, similar to the last long consolidation. This may draw in buyers, and I did see several Crypto Stocks up over the last 2 days. That can make for some good trades, but I do expect more downside over time, especially in April.
