Tuesday February 24th – Time
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SPX – Daily Cycles become rather unclear in this kind of chop, but one thing is for sure and that is that it is now getting too late to comfortably call this all one long daily cycle if it breaks again. We are running out of time. If the day 56 low is broken again, this would become day 61 today, and I have a feeling that it is really a failure if that happens. Why? Because The SOX and IWM are clearer and they look to have the dcl in place.
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THE IWM appears to have a dcl in place 2 weeks ago. That was the day 49 low in the SPX
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The hard part is that RCAT, UMAC, and others stocks that I liked are still looking ok, while many Tech Stocks look damaged, so is it just the tech sector breaking down? Or will the others follow?
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AMZN, NFLX, and a few other former bulls rolled over recently, so it really is a sign of weakness for some areas. AMZN is dropping back toward the April ICL low.
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WTIC – Oil still looks bullish as it broke that downtrend and back tested it yesterday.
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THE USD has been chopping higher, but that really hasn’t affected Gold and Silver as they pushed up higher out of their recent slam down lows.
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GOLD broke the downtrend or triangle on Friday and continued higher Monday. This is a bullish set up, but I just want to mention that it can still take 2 paths. A straight up parabolic run – or – a choppier consolidation like cup and then a handle.
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SILVER – dropped in an a-b-c manner and is bouncing out of that low. I actually think that the peak is in for Silver, with a blow off top, but it can spend some time in a first and second daily cycle looking bullish, and so far some of the Silver stocks are breaking to new highs.
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SILVER – This DOES look similar to Silver now right? I keep showing this just to keep that in the back of our minds. If Silver had a blow off top, it could do some chopping for a couple of months, and then I showed you what happened next…
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If Silver had a blow off top like 2011, it could do some chopping for a couple of months, as seen here, but then it did slam down lower again later. We’ll keep that in the back of our minds, because these consolidations are very bullish looking.
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GDX looks more like Gold with a triangle and the GDX and Miners are already back at the highs! The Miners look as though they want to continue to run, and some have head earnings reports that are helping. Some, like EGO, got dropped with earnings, but they can start to run higher again later. I want to show you what I mentioned with Gold…
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I want to show you what I mentioned with Gold…
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GDX – In past runs higher, The Miners (and GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) became a bit choppy and formed a cup and handle looking pattern, so I just wanted to mention that we could see that again. See the chart. The MACD and RSI are bullish.
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A few Miners yesterday were heading to the recent highs, so I posted the charts. VGZ was at the highs by 11:20 a.m.
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BTG looks very similar to VGZ. They have been quite choppy, but at least they are chopping higher.
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THM is starting to push higher now.
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ASM seems to have a bullish ascending wedge forming at the 20ema and above the 50sma.
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HL was pointed out as a lagger, so I posted this as t started to move higher. Unfortunately, it popped and then sold off at the end of the day, closing down 3 cents. That isn’t bad for a $25 stock, but it is still lagging. That could be considered a buying opportunity too.
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I also pointed out KGC as a ‘lagger that dropped after earnings’ in the weekend report, and…
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KGC pushed higher on Monday, closing up over 6%.
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So we still have a mixed picture in the general markets, with the SOX and IWM above support and near the highs, but the NASDAQ and some tech stocks look weak and are struggling. Oil is still looking Bullish and the precious metals sector has bottomed for now and some of the Miners really do look bullish, at least for the short term. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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Note: We had a big snowstorm in my area all day yesterday, and I will be spending the morning doing cleanup at my mothers. Her area got almost 2 feet of snow plus 50mph winds, so it piled up in some areas. I probably won’t be in the commenting area until afternoon Eastern Time.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – There is no change with Bitcoin. It is chopping sideways and still looks similar to the last choppy sideways move. Some of the Crypto stocks look better than Bitcoin, but they are a trade at your own risk, because they can pop or drop sharply. If the general markets were running higher and Bitcoin was at least slanting upward, they would probably do well, but until then they may remain choppy too.
