Tuesday February 3rd – Bounce?
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SPX – The markets are chopping higher, and on Monday we saw a decent pop higher after 3 Red days following the Fed Decision and Speech. With that pop, we are almost back at all-time highs on day 9.
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THE NASDAQ reversed higher at the 50 sma. We are looking to see if the Nasdaq can finally break from that weekly triangle that has been pointed out.
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Since we didn’t have a visible dip to a dcl with the IWM, I mentioned in past reports that we might drop and tag that 50sma. We still could but so far, we reversed back above the 20ema and this may be all we see for a visible dip.
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LAES – I want to point out that this is where I would buy LAES (AI). However, I am seeing other stocks in this sector start to fail. SES is still ok, but BBAI and ‘AI’ for example, have broken down. I would still buy LAES or SES, but let me show you my concern…
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BBAI (and AI) are concerning. The markets were UP and they broke down last week and continued lower. Along with this is that Quant stocks are failing and Nuke stocks are failing (by that I mean losing important support like the 50sma and 200sma, while the markets are rising).
Before I get too heavily invested in my favorite stocks from my watchlist of 2025, I need to keep an eye on this, and I will report what I see. And by the way, AAOI has been excellent.
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I saw OIL drop and I thought, “Oh no! Another false break out?” Well, it bounced at the 20ema and regained the 200sma, but maybe more importantly to me…
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I recommended and owned BORR, and it recovered quickly. This chart was captured 1 hr into trading and it looks just fine and PUMP even looks better. Some Oil stocks did drop. but are holding up at support, so this sector may still be ok.
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We have a shakeout with The USD, and this could possibly be an a-b-c down from the Nov highs, into an ICL.
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GOLD dropped further on day 21. It landed on a trendline and bounced, holding above the 50sma.
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GOLD – This may become an exhaustion drop where we put in an early dcl, OR we could bounce and drop and that becomes the dcl on day 25 or so.
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GOLD – A 4th daily cycle could put in a convincing bounce, put it would remain L.T. and roll over into an ICL if we do see a 4th daily cycle develop.
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GOLD FUTURES: showed the Friday and Monday drop as ‘roughly $5600 to $4400. That is $1200 in 2 days!
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SILVER also dropped sharply overnight Sunday into Monday and then it started to bounce back.
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With the Metals selling off on Sunday night and then both Gold and Silver bouncing before the markets opened, it may have helped shorten the drop in the Miners, as seen here with The GDX ETF Doji.
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GOLD LIVE: We are getting the bounce that I discussed in the weekend report, and we do seem to have a swing low (Unconfirmed). This could be a small bounce in the 3rd daily cycle or it could be the start of a 4th daily cycle. We’ll have to see how this plays out and you will need to decide if you own Miners whether or not you want to lighten up on the bounce or ride it just in case it runs again.
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We’ll have to see how this bounce in Gold and Silver plays out and you will need to decide if you own Miners whether or not you want to lighten up on the bounce or ride it just in case it runs again. It may help to review the weekend report again.
Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN : In December and early January I thought that we could see Bitcoin bounce up through the 50sma and tag the red 200sma, but it never made it up to that 200sma area. I am now thinking that it can bounce around to the 50sma again, but at this point it may not be able to even get above that area. We are in the 4th year of that 4 year cycle.
