December 31st Wednesday – Goodbye 2025
Today is the last trading day of 2025, it has been a Bullish year after a rocky start. Let’s see how things are set up to end the year.
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SPX – At this point our ‘rally’ has stalled a bit, but it is holding up above the main moving averages, and this remains a normal looking bullish set up. I would have loved to have seen a straight up ‘Santa rally’, but you have to take what the markets give you, and we’ve stalled at the highs.
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Yesterday I said:
THE USD has been chopping lower and that also makes it a bit difficult to see the difference between what a DCL may be or a HCL, but it has been unable to get above the 200sma and hold price there and lately the blue 20ema is also acting as resistance.
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THE USD hasn’t changed, but it pushed higher and is starting to break a downtrend line, so I thought that I would point that out. The MACD is starting to look a bit bullish too, so we’ll see if that blue 20 ema stops the USD again…or not.
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GOLD plunged with Silver on Monday, but Silver bounced back on Tuesday and Gold really didn’t. I see MACD divergence at the highs and price was actually rejected at the 10sma when Gold tried to recover, so Gold was a bit weak on Tuesday. Gold needs to get above $4400to recover that 10 sma.
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GOLD This is Gold live at 6:30 am ET. The report was written on Tuesday night.
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SILVER dropped to its’ 10sma and was able to bounce on Tuesday. On Tuesday night at 10 p.m. Eastern Time, this is what Silver is doing. It has dropped from the days highs and is heading back down. These are actually $3 swings in price now.
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I know that the bounce was encouraging, but I looked at the drop into the ICL and we had a ‘Drop – a bounce at the 10sma – and then it did break that 10sma as the sell off continued, so I am watching that 10sma to see if it holds. Please remember that yesterdays report…
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Please remember that in yesterdays report I mentioned that we could see a bounce, but I think that the ‘outside day’ is a reversal candle and that would indicate that Silver has peaked. I said…
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SILVER can bounce and we see that it started to bounce at the 10 sma, so I had drawn in a bounce, but usually there is a continuation sell off that follows.
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SILVER LIVE 6:40 a.m.
Again, I wrote the report last night, so this is just a live update in the morning. Silver sold off overnight and it did break through that 10sma, but right now it is trying to bounce back. If it sells off again today, then it is repeating that drop that we had when it was due for an ICL.
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GDX – Miners held up fairly well with Gold & Silver selling down, but the bounce was weak yesterday for the GDX (some of the 5-letter juniors and explorers did do better than this, but they usually do lag during the bull run, and then they play catch up at the end of a bull run). I have drawn a possible channel and GDX needs to hold that 20 ema or lower blue line, HOWEVER…
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GDX -We do also have a bearish rising wedge that has broken down, and this would indicate a ‘peak’ has been put in place and the selling will follow Gold and Silver lower. Yes, the letter ‘V‘ is right next to the letter ‘B‘ on the keyboard. 🙂 We’ll see if the GDX bounces further today or breaks below that 20ema.
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Tomorrow the markets are closed, so today is the last day of trading for 2025. The 2025 year has been a good bullish year for the General Markets and the Precious Metals after a very difficult start. You may recall tariff after tariff announcement in early 2025, causing chop and drop and a plunge into the April ICL. Once that drop was out of the way, the markets climbed steadily and many stocks in ‘AI’, Quants, Nuclear, Aerospace/Aviation, and Crypto stocks etc. blasted off higher and did very well.
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Well, we just had a drop or correction into the next ICL for the General Markets, so they may be set to run higher again as we start the 2026 new year. That said, the Precious Metals sector did not correct sharply. Gold & Silver had a mild ICL and then continued to run in a parabolic course higher. It now seems to be time for that ‘correction’ to develop further, so that is where we stand on the last trading day of 2025. The year 2026 may also have a good bull run in the General Markets, but The Precious Metals sector could become choppy and pull back for quite a while, similar to what the markets did at the beginning of 2025 when they formed an ICL. This will be discussed further in the weekend report, enjoy your last trading day of 2025!
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~ALEX
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Yesterday I mentioned that we were on day 40 and I said:
BITCOIN has now spent 40 days out of that sell off low and it is unable to push higher. There was a pop and drop on day 39, but the 50sma capped the price as resistance. Time is running out for Bitcoin and the 4th year of a 4 year daily cycle is upon us.
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BITCOIN – so far, there is No change at day 41. It is starting to crawl along under the 50sma.
