Wednesday December 17th
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SPX – The general markets dipped lower yesterday, but as you can see, they bounced back by the end of the day. It is possible at day 16 that we are seeing a half cycle dip and the markets could push higher soon.
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THE NASDAQ lost the 50sma in the sell off, but the selling was pretty mild and then it even closed green.
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So I go back and look at some of my favorites from my watchlist and take a look at RKLB for example:
RKLB actually ran strongly out of that dcl (off of the 200sma) and it has now pulled back 50% of that move. It reversed at the 20 ema.
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AFRM reversed strongly right out of the gate on Tuesday morning and was up 10% middy.
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WTIC – Oil actually broke below the last ICL. That means that the low in October was not an ICL, it was just another L.T. Daily Cycle and Oil is seeking out that ICL now. How far will it drop? We cannot tell at this point, but Oil can have daily cycles as long as 40-50+ days, and…
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Oil is on day 40, so a low could develop at any point, OR, it could drop for 10 or so more days. A lot of damage could come from a 10-15 day drop, since that would be 2 or 3 more weeks, so we’ll just have to see how this plays out.
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GOLD paused. It still looks similar to the consolidation in April to August of last year, but it could break higher at any time.
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SILVER had a 1 day drop on Monday and then on Tuesday it ran higher to the $65 area. Guess what though?…
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THIS IS SILVER LIVE AT 6 a.m. ET: Silver hit $66.52 overnight. Gold is only up a little overnight. It’s sad, but this run with Silver is not exactly being seen in the silver stocks, but those that bought ‘calls’ , SLV, or AGQ should be getting rewarded here. Some in the commenting section mentioned buying calls – congrats!
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GDX – Was day 29 a dcl? We are at day 35 if not and yesterday I simply showed us this next chart…
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I said:
Another way to look at this could be that is runs straight up for several days (green line) and then consolidates sideways for over a week. I do see that repeatedly. Once it breaks to new highs, it could then rally in a stronger manner, like we saw on the left side July-October.
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We’ve seen some selling and some choppiness early in this week, so what happened to that so-called ‘Santa Rally’? Well, the reversal in the general markets may be the sign of a half cycle low and the surge in Silver may also indicate higher prices today. The charts remain bullish, so this chop will hopefully be temporary and end soon. I hope so, because I will be gone on Friday morning, and I’d like to just buy and hold some positions through that time period. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – Today is day 26 of possibly 60, but I want to mention something about that. Often when you get a long daily cycle, it is followed by a shorter one. That last cycle showed major weakness, didn’t it? The drop from October into November added many days to that daily cycle, so the way that I am looking at this is:
We are on day 26 of what may turn out to be a shorter daily cycle. If we are on day 26 of a 52 day daily cycle, then this is all of the progress that we have for the first half of this daily cycle. At first, I was thinking that we could rally to the green 200sma, but we may only get to the orange 50sma and continue to chop around. We are entering year 4 of a 4 year daily cycle, and…
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BITCOIN NOV 15:
I have been pointing out that the 4th year is one where Bitcoin often gets crushed. We will have a great buying opportunity later in 2026, especially with Crypto stocks, but you do not want to buy and hold this sector in a 4th year cycle drop.
