Wednesday December 10th – Rate Decision

Today is a Fed Wednesday, so what can I say? 🙂   We’ve seen the somewhat normal trading during the day suddenly turn into wild volatility after the 2 p.m. Rate Decision is announced. After that we have the speech and more volatility. By the close, we hopefully can get a good read on what direction things want to go. We are supposed to get a rate cut today, but inflation has been remaining high and that causes some Fed Members to worry about a rate cut, so we’ll see. That said, Silver may have made its mind up early, it Popped yesterday, so let’s get to the charts…

.

This is day 11 for The SPX and so far, we have a normal move out of the dcl, and that does appear to be a very mild ICL if we don’t roll over and crash after the Fed. Right now, we have some pretty bullish looking set ups in most sectors.

.

Right now, we have some pretty bullish looking set ups in most sectors, so are the stocks acting correctly so far?

.

Remember AAOI? It came out of the April ICL and doubled, pulled back and then tripled. Well, here it is and it looks like it will  double again, after a DEEP UGLY sell off. So AAOI got ugly, but buyers are scooping it up now. On Tuesday it closed up even higher than this, well above the 50sma.

 

.

AI released earnings last week and it has only had one red day since then. If the markets remain bullish after the Fed (& they should), This could be a buy and hold as it crosses the red 50sma. So far that was a move from $12.50 to $16+.  See also LAES, BBAI, SES, PONY, etc .  Bullish set ups to buy and hold after this Fed meeting.

 

.

PLUG is pushing on the 20ema and looks ready to move higher too. FCEL already took off.

.

So the stocks sold off hard, but now they are lining up again after that sell off. I like the set ups on the above stocks in AI, Aviation/Aerospace, the Quants and Nuclear stocks are setting up and APLD, RKLB, PLTR, MU, AMD, TSEM, and so many more that I mentioned at the last ICL, so I will be putting them in future reports as Buy & trade or Buy & Ride.

.

WTIC – Nothing has changed with Oil, it continues to struggle at the 50sma.

.

UNG FOR NATGAS –

NATGAS ran up, but it is coming down faster than it ran up, so now after what looks to be a false breakout, it dropped in 2 days and erased 6 days. This could become a buy the dip entry near support, but I usually make gains and give them back this way due to the choppiness, so I won’t be looking to take a position if the General Markets and Precious Metals are running.

.

The USD is crawling along under resistance. It is acting weak right now, and a Rate Cut could add to that weakness. We’ll see what the USD does after the Wed Fed Mtg.

.

YESTERDAY I SAID:

USD – It is a little hard to tell where the dcls are, because the waves have been constant and not small dips in a steady uptrend. I have counted out 20+ days and counted that dip as a dcl. The MACD does seem to confirm that the USD is rolling over.

 

.

GOLD moved up a little on Tuesday, but Silver really shot up, so some of the Gold Miners like GORO, MUX, VGZ, AUMN, etc did put in some nice gains (9%, 12%, etc. AUMN was up 22% and it closed ‘even’). Others like EGO, IAG, KGC, AU only put in 1-3% gains.

.

GORO popped 12% and many of the 5 -letter juniors or explorers were up 10-20%. So it seems that some of these are preparing to make a run.

.

And this was SILVER! This is a clean breakout and I think it’ll just make a strong Silver run (unless somehow, The Fed can ruin this). A rate cut should help.

.

GDX is also a very nice chart. Its a nice cup and handle and it popped yesterday too.

.

In yesterdays comments I mentioned this:

AAGFF really shaped up quickly, and up 15% today.

See also GRSLF, BCEKF, AUMN, SLVRF, KUYAF, ELRRF, KOOYF, up over 10-20%

 

PAAS up 11% (Many silver stocks have this cup & handle or pennant look)

.

MUX has chopped higher since the dcl, so a ‘buy and hold’ at the dcl would be fine, but this set up looks like it would have much further to go. Of course, any of these could do an offering and spoil the party, so a basket is recommended.

.

So the current set ups are bullish, we’re just waiting on the Fed Decision to see how they react after that. Note: I have a follow up Dr. visit at 8:30 a.m., but I should be home by 10:30 a.m. I won’t be in the commenting area until 10:30-11 a.m., I imagine. Yesterdays trading was actually good, as you can see from the set ups in the reports. That may continue this morning. bitcoin is below.

Enjoy your Wednesday trading!

.

~ALEX

.

YESTERDAY I SHOPWED THIS CHART AS A WEAK START AND CYCLE COUNT ON DAY 18.

BITCOIN showed its weakness when it dropped into a dcl and just continued dropping after that low was due. Now it is struggling to get moving higher and we are at day 18 out of that low.  CAN IT RALLY, since we usually have 60 day daily cycles? Yes, it can, but will it? We are entering the 4th year of a 4 year cycle, so we have to be aware of that and use stops if you own Crypto stocks, Bitcoin, or alt coins. The MACD looks good, but the RSI is still under 50%.

.

Bitcoin popped a bit and then pulled back on that day 18, so this is day 19 and price did move above the blue 20 ema. THIS DAILY CHART shows resistance at the red 50sma and a downtrend, up near $95,000-$98,000.It could move higher than that with a 60 day cycle, so…

.

So, looking at the Weekly Bitcoin chart, it seems that the $103,000 area is solid resistance and may cap the next push higher.