Tuesday December 9th – ‘Pause’

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SPX – Monday was day 10 and the markets dropped and then started to try to bounce back. We are waiting for the Fed Mtg on Wednesday and the intraday charts were really choppy, so we may be stuck with a little pause until after Wednesday, we’ll see.

 

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THE IWM gapped higher and then sold off, so we have the IWM actually making a slight new high and then selling off.

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THE SOXX has been the strongest out of the SPX, NASDAQ, IWM, and SOXX, making new highs and closing Green on Monday.

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THE IBB & XBI (Biotech) has been climbing steadily since the April ICL too, but a recent difference is the sell off in Early November that the general markets had (Scroll up, you’ll see the v-bottom). The biotech sector chopped sideways and often held the 20 ema for most of the 2025 rally.

 

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WTIC broke above the 50sma and then lost it quickly. The MACD looks bullish, and I felt that it could regain that 50sma, but so far it has simply been choppy.

 

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THE USD is weakening and lost the 50sma. It has also ‘paused’ and is crawling sideways, but if we get a rate cut, I would expect it to sell off.

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USD – It is a little hard to tell where the dcls are, because the waves have been constant and not small dips in a steady uptrend. I have counted out 20+ days and counted that dip as a dcl. The MACD does seem to confirm that the USD is rolling over.

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GOLD is on day 28 and is now actually within the timing for a dcl, right in time for the Fed Mtg on day 30. I wrote that ‘The count may not count’ because when we have a triangle, an ICL can form there and the low is usually considered to be the last low in the Triangle before it breaks out. Either way, This is a bullish set up, we just can’t tell if it will take off higher and rally right now, or continue to consolidate like the June-August 2025 consolidation.

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SILVER has the appearance of a cup with a high handle. It broke out and was strong enough that it hasn’t pulled back and back tested the breakout like they often do. I want you to take a look at the 10sma…

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During SILVERs strong run higher, it was so strong that it didn’t violate the 10sma. Looking at it now, it is closing in on that 10sma again.

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Looking at Silver now, it is closing in on that 10sma again, and it even made a new high on day 27. Silver does look ready to continue higher with our Fed week.

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GDX – The Miners have been pulling back and this really does look to be a cup and handle.

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The set ups on our charts are still bullish as we head into the Fed Meeting on Wednesday, they have just gone sideways and ‘paused’ at this point. If you wanted to ‘buy the dip’ in precious metals, this is the dip. The odd thing to me is what I have been seeing the 10 year treasury doing, and I have followed the $TNX heading into every Fed meeting over the past couple of years. I see a change here, so I will briefly discuss that below with Bitcoin. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!

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~ALEX

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 The chances of a rate cut were recently over 90% chance and I mentioned that in a recent report. They are now suddenly only 75% and I noticed something odd happening:

In an environment when rates are being cut, the $TNX 10 yr treasury yield index usually trends lower. I have been watching this for the past couple of years and when we are expected to get a rate cut, it will drop heading into the Fed Mtg, and then after the cut is in place, it bounces. When we aren’t expecting a cut, it gains strength. I was very surprised to see it rising as we head into this Fed mtg, and it made higher lows and now higher highs as of yesterday? That is often the start of an uptrend. Usually when the TNX rises, mortgage rates rise too, so I just thought that I would point this out at this time…

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Are we getting a rate cut? We shall see…

1. You can see here that when we were expected to see a rate cut in September, The $TNX fell as we headed into that expected rate cut. It then bounced and made a lower high.

2. We were then expecting another rate cut in October, and it sold off into the Fed Meeting at the end of October with a lower low before starting to bounce back.

3. Now, as we were supposed to be expecting a rate cut in December, The TNX is rising heading into this meeting and made a higher high?  I have also seen mortgage rates rising over the past week or so too. This seriously has me wondering of it means that we will not get a rate cut, or is this rising on the rumor that we may not be?

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BITCOIN showed its weakness when it dropped into a dcl and just continued dropping after that low was due. Now it is struggling to get moving higher and we are at day 18 out of that low.  CAN IT RALLY, since we usually have 60 day daily cycles? Yes, it can, but will it? We are entering the 4th year of a 4 year cycle, so we have to be aware of that and use stops if you own Crypto stocks, Bitcoin, or alt coins. The MACD looks good, but the RSI is still under 50%.