The December 7th Weekend Report

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SPX WEEKLY– Price has worked its way back up to the prior highs, which are all-time highs. Seral Fed spokespersons had mentioned that they would now vote for a December cut and that sent the markets higher. There is slight divergence on the MACD,  but it is so slight that it can be undone over time.

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THE IWM ETF has also returned to the all-time highs, and we have a Fed Mtg this week where we should see a rate cut. That news has turned the markets up and out of the recent sell off.

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THE NASDAQ reversed at the 20 week ma and is moving higher too.

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THE SOXX ETF is also back up at the all-time highs. The general markets are moving higher with a bullish push out of the lows.

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THE USD has had the opposite reaction to the rate cut rumors. We started to see bullish price action that has so far become a back test of the breakdown, but we are now seeing selling increase with the Fed likely to cut rates this week.

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THE USD Last week I drew this chart to show what we might see if the USD sells off with a rate cut.

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GOLD has moved up and out of the recent lows too. It is not at the all-time highs yet and there is a possibility that it would either do a blow off top rally, or it may become choppy and consolidate recent gains, similar to the 2025 multi-moth consolidation.

 

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GOLD – I added that consolidation here, just to give you an idea of what we may see if Gold remains choppy going forward. I copied the 2025 consolidation and placed it over our recent rally.

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SILVER looks far more bullish than Gold. We broke to new all-time highs a week ago and continued a bit higher last week. This MIGHT go parabolic if it reacts strongly to a rate cut and continues on this path.

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GDX surged higher on the holiday week after rumors of a rate cut started to circulate. Last week the Miners paused and dropped lower. Gold didn’t drop very much and silver pushed higher, so this was a little unexpected, but it doesn’t really men much right now. We’ll see what happens after Wednesdays Fed mtg.

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GDX could surge into a blow off top if it continues to rally. It could double top and sell off too, if the markets don’t like what they see & hear on Wednesday from Fed Chairman Powell.

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At this point we have to say that the Bulls regained control, and now we’ll have to see if we continue to get bullish follow through with our midweek Fed Mtg. If they DO NOT CUT, that would be a big disappointment and I would expect a sell off, but so far, all indications are that we will see a rate cut. As of this weekend the chances are listed at over 70% chance for a cut. Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN became very weak over the past over the past 2 months, and it plunged below what could be viewed as an uptrend line. How much progress will it make from here? That remains to be seen, but we know that weakness is what we should expect heading into the 4th year of a 4 year daily cycle. We could get a good bounce, but I think that it would only regain half of that drop and not make a run to prior highs.

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After 3 years of strength,

BITCOIN is entering that 4th year, a time of weakness.