Tuesday December 2nd

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SPX looks a bit like the theme picture with that dip and bounce, doesn’t it.  –

This looks like day 5 out of the lows and the downtrend was broken. It is possible that the markets cool off a little after that surge higher, but a drop to the 50sma / 20 ema ought to act as support, if it gets that far. It was a strong surge out of the lows and it could continue with the hope of a rate cut next week.

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WTIC – With each bounce of Oil, we are watching to see if this was a half cycle low and stronger bounce can then push it above the 50sma.

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NATGAS is bullish – I stopped looking at NATGAS when the trading vehicle ‘UNG’ didn’t act correctly, but it looks to be acting correctly now. Boil is used for leverage by active, experienced traders.

 So with NATGAS, we see an ICL in August and higher lows since then. Now let me show you UNG…

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UNG – Notice that UNG bottomed in August, bounced, and then broke those lows in mid October. I stopped following it when NATGAS made higher lows and UNG broke down. One of our readers (Erik Sven) Pointed out BOIL yesterday and with UNG now rallying higher, BOIL has done so too. This chart of UNG and the chart of NATGAS does look to have good upside if it returns to the highs of early 2025.

 

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THE USD dropped to the 50sma and at this point I am seeing Gold do the opposite of the USD, just like it used to, so I wondered, “What might be next?”  Well, we had that low in September and when we were hearing no rate cut, the dollar strengthened. When we got rate cuts early in the year, the USD sold off. And now…

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THE USD might weaken with a rate cut in December and discussions of even more in 2026. We might have 2 short R.T. daily cycles higher, and now this one MIGHT become L.T. with a rate cut coming next week. Even if it does become R.T. it can then roll over and put in another daily cycle that now takes the USD lower.

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THE USD may then continue to weaken with rate cuts, and this bounce would become an ICL in September that simply back tested this resistance area repeatedly and then rolls over again. I copied the last drop and pasted it here. This actually allows Gold to remain bullish in 2026.

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GOLD has formed a triangle, as mentioned last week and in the weekend report. Yesterday Gold started breaking out of that triangle. Yesterday Gold also made a slightly higher high on day 23, making this R.T. This is a bullish consolidation and could lead into a continuation higher (or a sideways consolidation similar to what we saw in 2025).

 

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SILVER broke out on Friday and continued higher on Monday. It is day 24 today, so it is possible to either see this surge continue, or we could start to slow down, form a dcl before the Fed meeting, and then continue higher. Yesterday, silver stocks were mixed, with some following Silver and others pulling back. I drew the orange box to indicate an intermediate cycle, ICL to ICL. That last drop would be a very mild ICL drop.

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GDX is following Gold more than Silver, so it hasn’t made a new high yet, but I would expect it to. It is a R.T. daily cycle out of that recent low.

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I noticed that some of the 5-letter smaller miners / explorers did follow Silver, like SCMZF. It was up 12% in the first half hour and closed up 22% at $2.09! Right back to the highs.

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ISVLF was mentioned last week as it broke out higher. Yesterday…

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ISVLF Yesterday it popped and dropped (still up 6% though), so something to watch for is a possible pullback if Silver gives us a visible dcl. Many Silver stocks may dip and give us a lower risk entry if Silver pauses and gives us a dcl before the Fed meeting.

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CDE looked ready to break above the 50sma as a bit of a ‘lagger’ after 5 days straight up, but

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CDE actually sold off from here and closed down 2%, so again, we may get a few ‘buy the dip’ opportunities if Silver pauses.

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So we saw a pause in some areas, but the set ups continue to look Bullish with the stronger possibility of a rate cut next week. Enjoy your Tuesday trading.

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN struggled at the 20 ema again. It gave us a large drop on Sunday night into Monday, and is trying to bounce now. Again, we might get some good trades out of crypto stocks, but they can also become choppy if Bitcoin struggles, and I do think that the peak for Bitcoin must be in place. I’m watching to see if Bitcoin can get above the 20 ema here first, and then I’ll be watching the 50sma.

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Sidenote:

ETHEREUM weakened and is selling off too, as expected. If Bitcoin is heading into the 4th year of a 4 year cycle, I would NOT be holding other crypto stocks, hoping that they can resist Bitcoins fate. I can’t see how they’d be able to resist the selling of a 4th year cycle drop.