November 30th Weekend Report – Flip
DO NOT SKIP THIS PREVIEW: I want to start this report in a way that I usually do not start out with, but I feel that it is important so please don’t skip this intro. Last week was very interesting and did not act like a normal holiday shortened week, so I want to discuss that. I want to explain what I think we are seeing.
1. We were due for a pullback, since the general markets were on month seven.
2. Gold and Silver were very very bullish, but also due for a pullback to change sentiment.
3. Bitcoin sold off relentlessly.
Much of this selling seemed to start when all talk was that we would not get a rate cut in December. That talk circulated right up until several Feds gave a speech on Friday about the economy, and I know of 3 that stated that they would now vote for a December cut, to help the labor markets. THAT FRIDAY SAW REVERSALS EVERYWHERE, and LAST WEEK THE MARKETS FLIPPED. As mentioned in last weeks reports, Based on what I am seeing, the buying seemed strong and the markets seemed to have flipped. Now let’s look at the charts and see if this is confirmed here.
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So COULD THIS BE A VERY MILD ICL AT ALMOST MONTH 8? Yes, it could. We would be at 8 months from April 7 ICL to Dec 7 (this week). We did see an a-b-c dip. Price now looks too strong to be a 5th weaker daily cycle, especially if this run continues. We broke a downtrend. Let’s go weekly…
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I have repeatedly pointed out past Mild ICLs where we only saw 3-4 weeks of selling to the blue or red ma. The SPX now has 3-4 weeks of selling and it tagged the blue support ma/line and reversed. I also want to point out…
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I also want to point out the volume. It was almost as high as prior weeks, but it was missing a day and a half and it was a holiday week, when many go on vacation. So. I’d say that volume was solid for a holiday shortened week.
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Question: Does this now have to rally higher next week if it is bullish, or could it dip next week and still be bullish?
Answer: It could do either and still be bullish…
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Using the NASDAQ WEEKLY CHART, I am pointing out other solid reversals (ICLs) that both continued higher or did have a 1 week dip first. Overall, this set up is good looking for a continuation higher. This looks like an ICL for the general markets.
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WTIC – By now everyone should know the story with ‘Oil’. It broke down below longer-term support and tried to rally back. Oil is now just chopping along at the lows. It looks like a possible ICL from April to October, and it may be doing a half cycle dip with now before heading higher. THE XOP Looks good, and several Oil stocks look good and moved higher (XOP, PUMP, VET, VLO, etc). Shippers look good. Oil itself continues to look mediocre. We are just waiting for Oil to pick a direction from here.
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THE USD had crashed through support earlier in 2025, and this was expected by us. After a few months of lower lows and lower highs, it now looks like a rounding bottom and a slightly higher high. Did the USD bottom? It seemed to. Will a rate cut hurt the USD, since it seemed to in the past? Stay tuned, a rate cut may add weakness.
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In Fridays report:
Currently GOLD dropped down in a-b-c fashion, and it then started to bounce. I mentioned that you could buy that low with a tight stop and see what happens. We were now seeing a triangle form, and an ICL can form in a triangle. Gold looks bullish and is consolidating those great gains that it racked up in 2025.
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GOLD – On Nov 7th I pointed out that we could consolidate and not break the recent lows.
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So I expected GOLD to consolidate sideways for a while to give us an ICL, possibly a month or 2 from now, as drawn below. Now that I have seen what Silver has done however, we may need to expect immediate upside. Please see this chart.
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So I have re-drawn GOLD as a possible ‘blow off top’ that immediately follows Silvers break to new highs. Wait – Why did I say ‘blow off top’?
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GOLD is running so steep that another run higher from here, so soon, would really look extended. Also, as mentioned in past reports, take a look at the MACD compared to that past peak in 2011. If we start another Intermediate cycle now, it could become a L.T. Intermediate like the last one in 2011, after reaching the former RSI Highs. I’ll be watching for that.
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From Fridays report:
SILVER is also consolidating sideways and it has a series of higher lows above the 50sma. That is showing more strength than weakness over time. Selling is being bought above the 50sma.
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SILVER broke to new highs on Friday!
It has moved out of that dcl and made new highs on day 22, making this R.T. (UNLESS we had a day 18 dcl, and it would still be right translated with a day 12 peak). I showed 5 waves down or a-b-c down for Silver in October. Silver made new all-time highs on Friday.
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Did SILVER complete an ICL drop? It very well may have, since it was due for one with an April ICL. That last low came in at about 7 months after the April ICL.
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This late in an Intermediate cycle out of the Aprils lows, new highs in SILVER would be unexpected strength, unless an ICL is in place. Silver looks like it also wants to make a parabolic run higher.
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SILVER looks ready to finish a parabolic run higher. If Silver does this, Silver stocks will make great gains. Some already acted better than Silver.
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I want to repeat what I said earlier in the reports: This got pretty amazing. I said…
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Recently I showed how, just last week, many Miners looked very weak. AG lost the 50sma twice and this was with that ‘No rate cut in December’ thinking. This was last Thursday!
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With Miners like AG, we got the Friday reversal, and it was most likely from the Fed chatter of a rate cut.
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AG reversed on Friday and rallied this week. It shot up another 10% on Wednesday alone! Hold on to your hats now…
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WOW! AG shot up 37% last week on only 3.5 days of trading. Silver stocks like AG can accelerate into the end of the run.
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EXK was ugly before this week too, but it also shot up 38% in 3 and a half days. After that sharp October sell off, These looks ready to fly.
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GRAB A ‘LAGGER”?
CDE was up ‘only’ 23.45% last week. It dropped very sharply with earnings release and ‘no rate cut in December’ chatter, but this will NOT stay cheap for long.
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GDX was also ugly a week ago, and now we see a cup and handle kind of consolidation, breaking higher.
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GDX either put in an early day 18 dcl, or we are on day 22 Friday and it could so something like this over time.
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Last week I showed this: A lagger that looks ready to fly. There are others, so we’ll do some shopping if this continues. It’ll be ‘buy the laggers’ and ‘but the dips’ 🙂
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So I just want to repeat the thoughts that I opened up this report with: The Markets Flipped Last Week, and it looks real.
Much of this selling seemed to start when all the talk was that we would not get a rate cut in December. We were due for a dcl and an ICL anyway, so we expected some selling, but I thought that we would see more downside. That ‘no rate cut talk’ circulated right up until several Feds gave a speech on Friday about the economy. A few of the Fed representatives stated that they would now vote for a December cut, to help the labor markets. THAT FRIDAY SAW REVERSALS EVERYWHERE, and LAST WEEK THE MARKETS FLIPPED AND RAN HIGHER. From here we just ride it out and see how things go. If you didn’t buy the dcl, many Miners only started to push higher last week, so there’ll be time to buy. At this point, it seems that everything flipped from selling to buying. The bulls look to be back in control.
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I hope that all are enjoying your weekend! The daily reports will cover the day-to-day movements and buy the dips (or laggers) seems to be the way to go again, moving forward. As always, we look for signs along the way, as to what kind of a rally each sector will have. Bitcoin is below, have a great weekend!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN bottomed, ran higher, and is at a possible resistance point. It has been very weak, but it should be able to push through at this point, if that is a capitulation low. We’ll see. Crypto stocks did flip higher with the General Markets and they have put in very good %-Gainers, so that may be a good place to make gains.
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BITCOIN WEEKLY: So we should get a good bounce, but it may bounce around and top out at the $100.000 area. We’ll know when we get there, but crypto stocks could rally to new highs under these conditions.
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Crypto stocks could rally to new highs under these conditions.
Take a look at CIFR. It sold off hard, but last week, with only 3 and a half days of trading, it saw 44% gains. It also reversed right off of support.
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RIOT was crushed, but it bounced 27% last week too, so my point is this:
Bitcoin doesn’t need to run to $125,000 for these to make strong gains.
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CLSK: I pointed out CLSK last week (& bought it), because they released good earnings. It was up 55%! There are laggers in this area, and they may play catch up. MARA is right at the lows, for example.
