Friday November 21 – Hang In There
YESTERDAY I SAID:
With the Jobs Report coming out, we could get a bounce to the 20 ema & 50sma and then a sell off, as drawn here, or we may just sell off, but so far the 20ema has acted as resistance.
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THE NASDAQ had already lost the 50sma, but after that Jobs report, we got a $400+ Gap open and price was above the 50sma again. Very convincing to the bulls, but I drew a channel and this was only a back test of the up trending channel at this point, and a pop to the top of the new downtrend.
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THE NASDAQ held up for about an hour and a half, but it didnt run higher, it chopped sideways on intraday charts and then started to rapidly sell off. The sell off was steady, and we finally broke below the dcl. THIS WAS THE SHORT that I had discussed.
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THE QQQ chopped sideways after that Large gap open in the morning, and when it started to sell off, you could have gone short with a stop above any of those support lines. This is a trade that only those in front of their screens could probably take.
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The SPX also dropped and finally gave us a failed daily cycle on day 29. Day 29 is really kind of early, since these daily cycles can run 35, 40, even 45 days long. The next 2 charts are important…
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The next 2 charts are important, ESPECIALLY when you consider that these daily cycles often differ in length, so…
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#1 Let’s just say that we get 35- 40 days for The SPX daily cycle: It may not be drop, drop, drop. It may be chop, chop, chop. That is hard to short, however
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#2 The SPX daily cycle MIGHT do what Bitcoin is doing with so much time left. Now that the lows of the dcl have been broken, some retail traders may see this as a ‘lower high, lower low’ and stop buying dips. They may instead start to sell positions along with smart money. You could short with a stop using SQQQ, SOXS, etc.
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Tesla has held up nicely, but it broke down down 6 days ago. After chopping sideways, it also gapped up yesterday and then sold off. If you thought that Tesla was going to drop to the 200sma, you’d probably short it, right? Just a quick trade. Well,
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TSDD (Tesla short) – Some stocks like Tesla here and NVDA (NVD) have ETF trades for that reason. So let’s say that you wanted to short Tesla to the 200sma, you might get TSDD from $10 to $15 or so. I posted this chart midday when it had already moved from the low of $9.62 to $11, so THAT shows you that this can gain or lose over $1 in a day, and that might be too much for some to stomach. In other words…
In other words, if you grabbed 1000 shares trying to run from $11 to $15 now, it could drop to $10. 1000 shares x $1 per share loss is a $1000 loss in one day. So please keep that in mind, and that is why I don’t want to show trades in QBTS, IONQ, RGTI inverse using QBTZ, IONZ, RGTZ. They have been unreal trades when they rally (stock drops), but they can also drop 28% in 1 day. Those are for high risk experienced traders only.
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THE SOXX had already broken below the dcl, but I posted this yesterday in the comments to show the reversal at the 20ema and drop. This gave us the SOXS trade after the first hr of trading and SOXS was up nicely.
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WTIC – no real change with Oil, but I would think that it should be able to regain the 50sma. If it is too weak, then it’ll chop around like it has been, frustrating ‘long’ or ‘short’ traders and ‘long’ investors alike.
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THE USD has changed to a more bullish look, as explained in all of my recent reports, but it is at resistance.
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YESTERDAY I MENTIONED THAT The $4000 mark looks interesting. A break below that isn’t instantly bearish, but the uptrend and triangle will be broken and it will give this a weakening look. I wondered if we’d do that with the jobs report…
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GOLD actually held up very well in that firestorm yesterday. On day 17 we are still above the 50sma and it dropped and bounced back. Gold only closed down $2.40. It is possible that Gold will look like that safe haven and has drawn in some money from the general markets. That would encourage the idea that this is a ‘rest’ in Golds bull run and we may just see another long consolidation over time.
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GOLD If Gold did this, it might mean that general market investors are moving money to the Gold Bull. It might even indicate that the 2 bullish ideas that I have been discussing will unfold. That was
1. A long sideways consolidation like we saw in 2025, or
2. A continuation of the gold bull run as drawn here.
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SILVER also held up well in the general market sell off. This is day 17 for Gold & Silver.
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GDX was down almost 5%, so it did not hold up as well as Gold. GDX lost the 50sma again on day 18. That means that Miners could get caught up in the selling short term, despite Golds strength yesterday.
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So we expected a drop into a dcl /ICL soon for the general markets and even with the ‘400 point gap up joyful response’ to the jobless claims report, the markets rolled over and sold off very sharply. Some here were ready and were able to flip short after I discussed a tag of the 20ema and a drop. The fact that we were waiting for this and discussed that dcl/ICL timing daily was also a protection. I am assuming that my subscribers were cautious on month 7 of this intermediate cycle and lightened up or went to cash too. Some may try shorting the markets, and I will discuss that further in the weekend report (if we bounce, it can be shorted). When the time is right we will also be looking for that next long entry or ICL. A new intermediate cycle could offer lower price entries for longer term buy and hold plays. As for Bitcoin? Well, we knew that the ‘timing’ was late for Bitcoin, but I would have expected a bounce by now. Instead it is in a waterfall sell off. I’ll discuss that below too. Enjoy your Friday and weekend!
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I just want to mentioned that I will be away and busy all day and night on Saturday, so the weekend report will be released on Sunday.
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~ALEX
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I discussed that Bitcoin count yesterday:
BITCOIN has been selling of relentlessly. I honestly do not see any other way to count this drop, but it puts us at day 79 for a low so far! It COULD be a day 64 dcl that ‘peaked’ on day 7 and then rolled over and failed on day 9, but that just seems way too early for that kind of weakness. So what about a bounce?…
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BITCOIN is that falling knife, waterfall sell off that we speak of at times. Sellers are just running to the exits and buyers cannot gain control. There will likely be a decent bounce when this bottoms, but Bitcoin is entering the 4th year of that 4 year cycle and we have been discussing this since year 2 🙂 You can trade the bounce if you want to, and crypto stocks always seem to bounce with good gains, but it may be choppy and difficult too. Bitcoin has basically dropped straight down for 2 weeks now.
