Friday September 26th – Pullbacks
The Theme Picture is what a pullback can feel like, right?
I have basically been 100% invested for a while (Note: I do rotate my crops though) and between Miners, Crypto stocks like IREN & CIFR, and some General Markets stocks like Quants, Nuclear, tech, etc, the bucket has been filling up steadily. We are now ‘enjoying’ a 3 day pullback and it feels like the Theme picture, it feels like we are starting to give some back, so what do we do? It’s good to just stay aware of where we are and use stops.
1. In the General Markets, we could be dipping into a dcl, OR with this bull market, we may have ‘time’ for one more pop/rally before a deeper dip.
2. Miners are strong, but they could put in a L.T. Daily Cycle, so we stay aware of that.
3. Crypto is suddenly struggling after a very bullish run, so that sector needs babysitting until it gains some strength. Today is Friday, The General Markets are AT SUPPORT, we’ll see if they can turn higher from here. Let’s go to the charts!
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THE SPX landed on the 20 ema and started to reverse higher. At day 38, one more push higher is within the timing for a 50 day daily cycle, but many end right about here with a dcl at day 40+. We’ll see what Friday brings, but a drop to a dcl here may only tag the blue 50sma.
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QQQ – If we do bounce, you could try to sell it (or a partial) and buy the dip, because I would only expect 1 more dip before we finally roll over and put in our next dcl.
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YESTERDAY I SAID:
THE USD has bounced up to the 50sma in past bounces, but as you can see, it found resistance there and turned back lower. THIS TIME may be different. We are early into this bounce, and it may just break right through. If this happens, we may eventually get our pullback in the precious metals sector.
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THE USD was able to break through the 50sma. It actually was a strong break, but it didn’t hinder Gold & Silver as much as one would expect. So let’s look at Gold and Silver and take 1 more look at this chart of the USD. You would expect Gold & Silver to plunge with this breakout…
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GOLD actually looked ready to dip a little lower to the 13 sma, but it was Green, even though the USD surged higher.
GOLD is on day 5.
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GOLD is also obeying an uptrend line. I think that when that line eventually breaks, we will start a deeper drop that the milder dips that we have been seeing.
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SILVER really ignored the USD surge, because it surged 3%. Some Silver Miners were up and some were actually up 1% or even red, so for some reason the silver miners lagged this pop a bit.
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GDX turned higher too and the GDX (Miners) seems to follow Gold and is also on day 5. I thought that we’d get more of a dip to the 13 sma, because I also expected the USD to move higher. Now we have both moving higher.
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We have now had a couple of days of selling, but it has been mild and we are sitting at support in many cases, so let’s see what Friday brings our way. Enjoy your Friday trading!
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~ALEX
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Bitcoin plunged lower yesterday. I grabbed this chart at 6:30 a.m. on Friday and you can see that price has not Bounced back yet. I am still concerned that we may be seeing a H&S Form and until we get back above the 50sma this will continue to have a bearish look of lower lows and lower highs too. I decided to sell my crypro stocks for now and I’ll show you why…
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I decided to sell my crypro stocks for now and I’ll show you why…
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MARA – I didn’t own MARA, but I am concerned with what I saw. MARA didn’t hold up well with Bitcoins drop, but over the past month when I was in CIFR, CLSK, IREN, HUT, WULF, etc, they all held up despite any drop that Bitcoin had. I wonder: Is this weakness a sign, since I didn’t see any bad news?
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CIFR announced good new overnight and it actually shot up to $18! Right then they also announced a public offering, and it sold off rather relentlessly all day long. That is a big price swing from $18 to $11, and volume was huge, so I wondered: Is this overreaction a sign of things to come?
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HUT actually looks fine, but it lost the 13 sma and Bitcoin plunged, so to avoid a sharper loss with any follow through, I exited and will watch to get back in IF bitcoin can recover. But if this looks ‘OK’, why sell? Well…
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IREN – I owned IREN and this is starting to look like a top. It looks great up here at the highs with Bitcoin near recent lows, but I lost some gains from CIFR, I want to lock in the gains from IREN, WULF, and HUT and see if Bitcoin can stabilize.
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Let me show you something.
CIFR gave up 6 days higher in 1 day lower, right? So I started to think to myself that Bitcoin looks a bit weak right now…
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So I started to think to myself that Bitcoin looks a bit weak right now, what if it sells off over the weekend?
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I gave back some gains from CIFR, and with that weak look in Bitcoin right now, I wanted to lock in the gains from IREN, WULF, and HUT and see if Bitcoin can stabilize.
I thought about Bitcoin trading over the weekend 24/7. If we wake up on Monday and see this? The Crypto stocks could gap down sharply and sell off all day.
1. I’d rather try to find a way to get back in if it gains strength, than to
2. try to get out and lose 4 or 5 days of gains in 1 swift drop on Monday.
