September 18th Post-Fed Reactions
The Fed Day gave exactly what everyone was expecting, yet as I mentioned in yesterday’s report, we still saw fast volatility and a lack of direction anyway. Let’s look at the charts…
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I’ll start with the QQQ intraday chart. As you can see, the markets were slowly selling lower all day and then they started to climb higher into the 2 pm decision. The cut was announced and everything Popped! Then it dropped, and then it crashed to new lows of the day as seen here. This was BEFORE the Fed Speech, but it started to climb back up as he began to speak. See the chart…
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As he spoke, that bounce then crashed down to even lower lows for the QQQ . When we entered the final hour of trading, you can see that the markets started to run higher again and then sold off slightly into the close. After all of that, the closing price closed where it opened, soooooo….
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SPX – We have a doji, but the SPX bounced right off of the 10sma. This might be all that we get for a dip for now, since the markets can run longer than the current cycle count. Thursday will help us to get a better idea of which direction the markets may want to travel from here.
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CLEAN ENERGY – I just wanted to show this sector, because I’ve pointed out some of these stocks and they are finding buyers quickly. Stocks like BLDP, BLNK, PLUG, WWR, etc
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FCEL has been a rocket, running straight up after earnings & breaking that 50sma (as a buy). You’d need a bull flag or pullback to enter this going forward.
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PLUG was pointed out as a buy 1 or 2 days ago. It followed through here and kept going. It was up 9% when I grabbed this for the commenting section, but it closed up 20% yesterday!
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WWR is breaking out now after reversing at the 200sma.
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BLDP was in my report last week and I KNOW that some of you bought it. I hope that you were able to hold on through the fed because…
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BLDP has moved higher day after day, but yesterday it really gained some traction, with volume!…just like PLUG.
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QUANT STOCKS: I have discussed this sector as ready to go and having good potential too.
IONQ (Sept 4) was pointed out as breaking above the 50sma, and then…
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IONQ broke the downtrend and looked ready to go…
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IONQ continued higher out of that consolidation and take a look at what happened when it cleared that consolidation…
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IONQ has gone straight up and it is not alone, RGTI has too.
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RGTI was also pointed out in the reports and look at it now! Are there laggers that have a similar set up as IONQ & RGTI?
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QBTS was a lagger until yesterday. I grabbed this after the Rate cut and it just kept going! This is doing what IONQ 7 RGTI did…
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QBTS continued higher up almost 20%. IS TTHERE ANOTHER LAGGER?
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QUBT has also been in the reports and this is it right now. It just now broke the 50sma and…
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QUBT looks to be forming a cup and it should run higher, but the way that RGTI, IONQ, QBTS ran up may indicate how this could run. NO GUARANTEEs, but it is the same sector and that sector has become explosive. See also ARQQ, QMCO.
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WTIC – Oil has bounced to the 50sma again, and then stalled. We do have MACD divergence, but this chart is tricky because the chop seems to indicate failed daily cycles. Right now it looks slightly more bullish with technical analysis.
USD – If you worked all day and then just glanced at this chart, you’d say, “Oh it dropped and recovered as a reversal candle.” and you’d be right, but there is a lot here. That is actually a failure and recovery, like a shakeout, so the USD may attempt a rally. It seems too early to be an ICL, so it may rally – send Gold lower – and then roll over, sending Gold higher.
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So that simple dip and recovery actually looked like this crash and rally in REAL TIME, after the Fed rate cut.
If the USD did THIS, did Gold respond and do the opposite?
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GOLD did do the opposite. It surged higher and then just sold off sharply to new lows of the day.
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It looks a bit different on the daily chart, but the USD did a reversal candle at the lows, and GOLD made a slightly new high and sold down from the highs.
IS THIS THE PEAK for now? Well, the 10sma wasn’t broken yet, so this could still go either way, and surprises can be on the upside. That said, Gold is overbought, and the USD does look like it wants to bounce. Let’s just see what Thursday brings our way.
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Yesterday I said this about Silver:
SILVER – I was watching a running correction and expected a break to the upside. To be honest, it has not completed the upside target that I would have expected, but…
1. If I just count the days out of the July low, we are at 32 and a peak. Wow! A peak on day 32.We would be due for a dip now too.
2. Unless this triangle causes us to push the count toward the apex, like it does when a triangular ICL forms, this is due for a pullback.
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SILVER dropped sharply on Fed Wednesday and then it started to bounce back. That is a swing high, and the count is late, so we may start to drop lower from here with a ‘peak’ in place.
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THE GDX put in a swing high on Tuesday and had follow through lower on Fed Wednesday. It is still above the 10sma, so this could just be a normal pullback in a steep run, but all things considered (with Cycle timing and a USD bounce looking likely), this may be the peak for this daily cycle.
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I’m writing this on Wednesday night, and I do know that things could change by Thursday morning, but as a Wednesday night summary,
1. I feel that the General Markets do have room to run upside. Will they? I don’t know as of Fed Wednesday, but they have time to do so, and the reversal was nice. The General Markets can continue higher.
2. Precious Metals: I feel that they are extended and will most likely have peaked, especially if we get a USD bounces. As a Gold bull market though, it may be another brief or mild pullback.
3. Crypto stocks do look set to go higher. It is early in the daily cycle for Bitcoin itself, and they recovered quite nicely on Wednesday.
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I’ll discuss crypto and a couple of trade ideas below. Enjoy your Thursday Post-Fed fall out! 🙂
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~ALEX
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Bitcoin sold off to the support of the blue 50sma on Fed Wednesday, and it bounced right back. Tonight Bitcoin started a new candle and it is slightly higher, but even if it drops, there is a good amount of support to hold it up (Orange arrow).
