It’s a Fed Day-What can I say? 🙂 You all know the drill by know. We usually see Volatility no matter what he says or does. At times, the initial reaction is a blast (higher -or-lower) and then in the final hour we get the exact opposite reaction, so it can get really tricky if you are trying to trade around it. Sometimes we get a blast higher into the end of the day and a drop on Thursday. Just be prepared for volatility. I’d love to see a surprise to the upside everywhere and a rally that lasts another few days before we see a pullback, but the set up in Gold doesn’t exactly feel that way, so we’ll look at the charts and make personal decisions from there.
.
THE SPX: We can get a 35-day daily cycle, and we have had 50-day daily cycles, so this one is just not predictable. It could pull back immediately into a dcl drop, or it could blast off higher and dip as we get past day 40. We do have plenty of nice looking market set ups though.
.
BBAI was a buy at the 200sma reversal and then it just popped and dropped 3 days in a row. I posted this chart on Tuesday though and I mentioned that it looked ready to run higher, using daily and intraday charts. Volume was BIG in the first hr alone…
BBAI took off higher and ran up 15% midday (this chart) and then continued higher to close up at 16.70% gains for the day.
.
This PLUG set up caught my eye when I ran through the BLDP, BLNK, FCEL, PLUG, OPTT, etc watch list. PLUG broke through the 50 & 200sma and is breaking from a triangle too. It is a buy. BLDP was a buy mentioned earlier and it continued higher too.
.
BUMMER: 🙁
RKLB announced plans to raise up to $750 million through stock sales. Rocket Lab has hired major banks, including Bank of America, JMP, and Needham, to facilitate these sales at market prices. I am thinking that this drop MIGHT be short lived, since it sounds like the banks were hired to sell at market price at various intervals. Not all at once. This is a disappointment if it keeps dropping, but to be safe I would put a stop under the blue lower trendline.
.
The USD just rolled over on Tuesday. Is that in anticipation of a rate cut, or a 50 basis point cut? Either way, it seems to have caused a failed daily cycle for sure, since it almost took out the deepest low(ICL) In July…
.
It is very oversold, so it is possible that it could bounce after the Fed, right? It is noteworthy that the USD did DROP after the Jackson Hole speech, so for it to Run higher after the cut would be contrarian to what many would expect. So, the US will probably run higher 🙂
.
GOLD rallied ever since the Jackson Hole speech hinted at a rate cut. With that, everyone would expect a strong rally after the rate cut comes out, right? Maybe we should expect the opposite. CAN THIS RALLY? Yes, it could give us a continuation after the recent sideways pause, but it’s not clear from the charts. This looks overbought and due for a dip.
.
SILVER – I was watching a running correction and expected a break to the upside. To be honest, it has not completed the upside target that I would have expected, but…
1. If I just count the days out of the July low, we are at 32 and a peak. Wow! A peak on day 32.We would be due for a dip now too.
2. Unless this triangle causes us to push the count toward the apex, like it does when a triangular ICL forms, this is due for a pullback.
.
SILVER – The triangle has me wondering if that consolidation raised enough energy to just push price higher and higher. We are due for a dip though, and Silver stocks did drop more than Silver yesterday. I can see 5 waves, but has wave 5 completed yet? We’ll see.
.
GDX has rallied in a very strong vertical manner. Yesterdays drop looks a little deeper than prior 1 day dips recently, so we may be seeing the start of a pullback, right on time for the Fed Mtg today.
.
GDX – I couldn’t do our cycle count, because that choppy low makes it hard to know where to start. Which low was a dcl? So I started to count backward and I reached day 33 at the higher low. If I start at that higher low and we are on day 33, we could fall for a couple of days to the 20ema and form a dcl at day 35, 36, 37? It may just be a quick dip. This count may not be correct though.
.
It is a Fed Day, we expect a quarter point cut. A half point surprise would really shake things up , but this Fed group has not been very generous with the cuts, so anything more than a quarter seems unlikely. What DOES seem likely is a little volatility around 2p.m. onward, so do whatever it is that you do to prepare for that (Cut positions(?), go for a walk outside(?), ride it out for the next day or 2 (?)). Bitcoin is below, enjoy your Fed Wednesday trading!
.
~ALEX
.
Bitcoin has been acting correctly and now looks to be supported by the 20 ema. Day 16 (today) is the peak of this run so far, but this can and should run higher over time. Maybe it will get a Fed Rate Cut Push higher.
.
BTDR dropped yesterday, but isn’t it interesting that it dropped to the ‘imaginary’ trend line and bounced back? I love this stuff 🙂
.
MARA was pointed out last week as crawling at the lows, lagging, but due to join the Crypto party. The Gains could be big as seen in the bigger picture…
.
MARA started pushing on that resistance and I saw strong volume coming in. Everyone here knows that I look for that. Supply and demand and the demand for Mara was swelling. You could buy it ahead of time (even last week) or buy the breakout…
.
MARA broke through by 11 a.m., so I pointed that out again here.
.
MARA was up 6.5% midday and it closed up almost 8%, so things look good for the laggers.
.
CLSK was a lagger too, but the potential is also great here if it could get above the 50 and 200sma on daily chart, similar to MARA. This was a weekly chart that I used last week to point out higher low….
.
CLSK broke out yesterday too, and was up 9% by the end of the day.
Tuesday September 16th 
September 18th Post-Fed Reactions
Scroll to top
