Tuesday September 16th
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SPX – We made another new peak (All-time highs) on day 30. By now we all know that we have a Fed Mtg tomorrow where the rates are supposed to be cut by one quarter point. The markets have been running since the rate cut speculation came out of the Jackson Hole speech. At day 30, this can keep going higher and we could see a 45 or 50 day long daily cycle, but who really knows? I’ve also been saying that we are seeing the ‘Buy the rumor’ part of the rate cut, and we could then see ‘Sell the News’. We just don’t know, but we do know that fed days are often very volatile, so we should expect that on Wednesday afternoon. Until then, the markets may just keep on climbing.
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SPX – The fed rate cut may not be a ‘Sell the News’ event if buyers continue to add, since we are only on day 30 of what could become a 50 day daily cycle. I still do see a lot of bullish set ups in RKLB, TSLA, AAOI, Quant stocks, AI stocks, etc etc, so we could see a ramp up after the Fed Volatility settles down.
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OKLO was a buy on Sept 8,9,10, & 11 and I was pointing out that it bounced twice off of the 50sma.
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OKLO continued higher and then it shot up 16% on Monday after breaking from this triangle. The Nuke stocks (LTBR, NNE, SMR, etc) broke higher.
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LTBR is just now breaking through the 50sm and the downtrend line. It is oversold yet looking great. (The Fed Mtg could dampen my enthusiasm little. I’d try a smaller position).
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Last week when AI STOCKS were popping, I mentioned one that I like (I never hear anyone talking about this one) It was….
PONY: I liked the long consolidation and RSI 56.90, etc
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PONY popped up on Monday with good volume (This was only 1/2 a day). It closed up 11% on strong volume and it could be ready to run.
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TSLA has been running and apparently Elon has been buying. It broke from this triangle consolidation last week and these can run when they build up the energy. At this point, however, I think that you’d want to wait for a dip or flag.
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AAOI was setting up last week…
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AAOI: In this bull market, almost all of our former runners are running again.
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Mentioned twice last week, QS was a buy at the red 200sma and then as it broke the 50sma. QS can really run when it wants to. On Monday it sold off to the 50sma, then bounced, and went green by 4%.
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So we have many good set ups that are bullishly following through, and hopefully that continues after the Fed Mtg Wednesday.
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THE USD dropped again, and it is simply very choppy. I have a wedge drawn here, but this can break up or down. 2 days ago, the USD was rejected at the 50sma again.
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GOLD had been ‘pausing’ on this run higher. It Popped on Monday and that is a pop above the 10sma. That makes sense, because the last rally was running up along the 10sma quite a bit too. Also…
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A pause in the middle of a run is common and was pointed out this weekend on the weekly chart
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I used this chart to show you what a ‘running correction’ looks like. I said that Silver seemed to be forming one. It may not break with this kind of explosiveness, but they do often break higher if that is how it started out…
So:
I said that Silvers chop higher was looking like a running correction, and they often break to the upside (or in the direction that they previously were heading in).
SILVER started to break higher this week, at the 10sma too. Silver stocks were leading the way.
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Speaking of ‘Leding the way’, GDX has been on a tear.
The drawback to this is that I really have a hard time believing that this can be sustained. The RSI is pinned at overbought and it just seems like it would need a rest and a pullback. Could the Fed Mtg cause that? It could, unless we just get a bull flag or triangle, and then a continuation higher.
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We now have the smaller miners/ explorers taking off too. They often join in a little late, but they make up for lost time in a big way sometimes. Let me show you a couple of examples:
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AUMN more than doubled in 1 month. It had a long choppy consolidation, but it has been more of a straight up move over the last couple of weeks. The dip to 20 cents and dip to 30 cents could have been buys at different support levels.
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BCEKF – Very choppy and price was right back down at April lows in August, but it Popped with big volume in early September and formed a flag and ran again.
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TDRRF -Tudor was a lagger, chopping at the yearly lows for months. Suddenly it gets into an APEX and Pops. Now it has almost doubled in a couple of weeks too.
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TRX was very choppy at the lows. These can pt you to sleep when they are at the lows like that. If you owned this , it basically was around 35 cents all year. I would hate that, and I used to own this company all of the time when Jim Sinclair ran it. Well, it finally started to run in September and it has been quite strong, so these smaller ones are flying.
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See also VGZ, PZG, EMX, CGAU, THM, BTG, GORO, GROY, etc etc . They are running now.
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What about AAGFF: I posted this in the comments as a strong volume pop in a nice consolidation. This could also start running, it has in the past. Also…
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Take a look at The AAGFF WEEKLY -I like the potential.
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I see a cup (or pan) & handle here and I posted this 1 hr into trading because the volume was great for 1 hr. It is still a buy, because it closed right here price wise (popped and drifted back to this area) and the volume was 5x this amt. I think it is a buy if you like the 5 letter explorers/miners.
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The Bulls continue to run strong, but we do have the Fed ahead. Bitcoin is below, enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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Bitcoin is on day 15 and it has moved sideways on the 50sma as a consolidation of the move up out of the most recent lows. This looks like a small bull flag and since support should hold price from dropping here, we would expect Bitcoin to move higher.
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I covered many Crypto stocks in the weekend report and all last week, so there is nothing really new here. WI discussed MARA and CLSK as laggers that could play catch up, and we saw CAN, BTDR, and others starting to move now. IREN, CIFR, WULF, HUT, and RIOT have been doing well as leaders, etc. See the reports from last week for ideas, but Today I just wanted to show you IREN today.
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IREN was a leader, along with CIFR, HUT, WULF, etc., and they are doing excellent, but at this point are we now starting to see more of a straight up move in IREN? I don’t want to exit too early, but this is almost starting to look parabolic and we have the Fed Mtg tomorrow. With that, it could drop. It may be time to ask ourselves if we should at least lock in some of the gains until we see the Fed reaction? Could this also explode even higher though? Yes…
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Could this explode straight up to $40 or more with a rate cut?
Yes, it could still run higher over time. It may also just flag on the way up as drawn here, to continue to really go parabolic, so I’m not saying to sell an entire position (Unless you want to put the money in a lagger). I am saying that with a steep run and a Fed reaction, we may see selling tomorrow, because this one is starting to run straight up.
1. You can just ride it and see what you get, or
2. Sell some to lock in some gains, and add it somewhere else (or back to Iren if we get a bull flag or triangle, etc.
3. Iren is also at all-time highs, so it could run to $50, $75, even $100 over the time of the Bitcoin run, if it kept flagging as shown on this chart.
