Friday August 29th
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THE SPX made another new all-time high. These are small moves, but when the markets drift higher, sometimes certain stocks Surge higher while others limp higher. It is all bullish price action either way. I also wanted to show you something else…
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IWM – When I look at the IWM, it is easier to see the dcls, because the dips were a bit deeper in small caps. So this is the visibly ‘easier to see’ cycle count.
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We discussed that IONQ buy at the reversal candle at the 200sma after that dcl was in place. It has now moved above the 50sma too. This is a long consolidation at the highs that could break out and run over time.
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RGTI was also pointed out at the 50sma reversal on Aug 24th and August 26th. That was also a reversal at the uptrend line…
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RGTI continues higher too, and still looks like it has room to run higher.
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RKLB was pointed out as a buy near $42 with the red 34 sma. Price actually chopped there for a couple of days. This was my August 18th char.
RKLB ran to the highs and then started to dip. Yesterday it reversed at the 20ema, so that MIGHT be all we get for downside. This daily chart looks like a small cup (or pan) forming, right? Well…
RKLB WEEKLY – The weekly chart also has a cup at the ICL drop in April when it was first declared a buy & hold. It has moved from $15 to $55 since that ICL. I have discussed RKLB all along the way since the ICL. It is a good company. If you bought that at $15, $20, or as late as $25, you still made 100% gains. From $15 was almost 300%.
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VNET – When VNET made that massive 400% run in early 2025, I put it in my watchlist. It started to sell off and then it really dropped/crashed into that April ICL. Now we would have to wait for it to stabilize and see if it forms a set up. Well, it has been bouncing along the 200sma since that ICL, but it was a bit sloppy. Then it started to do well June & July and then consolidated those gains, so this now looked ready. I PUT THIS IN THE REPORT on August 25th (this week) as a possible breakout on earnings and back test.
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VNET popped another 10% yesterday and this does look like it could not start a stairway higher. It could run similar to how it ran in June-July, ot it could run quickly due to that earnings pop. It’s a good set up.
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THE USD has been chopping along and then it broke down below the recent uptrend line, so the USD is displaying signs of weakness here, and Gold is displaying signs of strength.
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The USD dropped and GOLD Popped to the point that it is breaking out above the downtrend line on day 21. THAT is kind of a big deal. This makes day 21 R.T. with a MACD cross and an RSI of 61.64%, but in a triangle, you will usually see strength and higher lows unless it breaks down. A triangle is higher lows and lower highs, so this MIGHT break the pattern of lower highs. Will this breakout and back test as an ICL in a triangle? Or will it break lower? Either way, we have the FED MTG September 17th, and that may provide the timing for a dip and a low.
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SILVER popped too and we are late in a 4th daily cycle. This is unusual strength for a 4th daily cycle. It hasn’t made a new high above daily cycle #3, but for Silver, this is strong 4 months after an April ICL. THAT SAID, I see some MACD divergence at these highs and I keep saying that in the back of our minds, we should expect a dip at some point. How deep? It may be mild with this kind of 4th daily cycle bull market strength. THE FED MTG IS SEPT 17. We could drop into that time period.
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GDX has been strong and a ‘measured move’ would move Miners a bit higher and closer to $64, but that may or may not happen if Gold pulls back. Let me tell you something that I have noticed in my 25 plus years of trading. I have noted that when the volume on this second leg higher is lighter than the first one… that hints at a weaker 2nd leg that may not fulfill the measured move completely.
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The bulls are running and I’m going to start to mention that September 17th Fed Mtg from time to time. Why? Well, the markets certainly POPPED at the Fed Speech at Jackson Hole, right? The hint of a Rate Cut on September 17th. So the markets may do 1 of 2 things:
1. General Markets still have ‘time’ in their daily cycles. They may rally as we approach that Fed week, but then start to pull back as that meeting approaches, just in case we egt another ‘no cut yet’. They could then Bottom with that Fed Rate Cut (dcl) and proceed to rally sharply higher.
2. They could do that ‘odd’ move, where they rally in hopes of a cut, and then when we get the cut, they sell off Thursday through the next week (and everyone wonders why?). CNBC and Bloomberg News reports will say, “Well, a Fed cut actually means that they saw weakness in the economy, and the Thursday Jobs report proved it. “
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But for now? The bulls certainly remain in control. Enjoy your Friday trading & upcoming weekend!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – dropped overnight and is threatening to take out those recent lows. Those lows were day 65, so we really are getting too late for this. I hope to see this reverse higher as the day goes on. 
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Ethereum also dropped to the 20 ema overnight, but it looks like it could drop a bit further since the stochastics is not oversold yet. We’ll see, but if it does sell down, it may just tag the 50sma & trendline.
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I just want to quickly mention IREN: We have owned/traded this for a while, but it has been a leader lately:
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IREN has been strong and it has been in many reports as a leader lately. This was their earnings report yesterday and they also covered their deal with NVDA:
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IREN has been doing very well, it has repeatedly been in the reports as a leader. It hit over $26 last night.
