Tuesday August 19th – Still Running
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SPX – The markets are obviously in an uptrend. They ran up out of the dcl recently and now we’re seeing a slow pause. It is possible that we dip or churn sideways until we get to the green 20 ema, but that’s not really necessary.
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RKLB was mentioned as a buy a week ago and in my opinion, it is still a buy. It started to pop on Monday, but dropped a bit to $45, but the set up is a bullish one.
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AAOI finally made a move after crawling under the 200 & 50 sma. This was a 16% pop and this is the company that I have pointed out at the ICL. It doubled $10 to $20, then dipped to $15 & doubled again. Now from $20, it could double again.
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NVDA has been a steady 100% move out of the ICL. GOOG ran steady but the gains were less, from roughly $150 to $200 (only 30%ish). But AAPL was a lagger…
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AAPL -I used to look up AAPL when I looked up NFLX, NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, etc and it just chopped sideways for 3 months. It actually looked very weak, but it finally broke higher here in August and may make a run to former highs like the others. You could buy a small position here or wait and see if it does a back test (as drawn) and try to buy a reversal at support.
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SOFI was another company on my watchlist that has been acting correctly (or bullishly) after the ICL. It has been riding along the 20 ema and that is a buy area as it tries to continue higher. Sofi has doubled out of the ICL too. Its actually almost a triple from the very low point, but a double from the $10 or $11 area, which would have been a buy point.
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I used to follow GRRR on my watchlist after trading it back in January to February. It did NOT fly higher out of the April ICL though. IN November, it ran from $3 to $45 and now it has finally dropped all the way back to the 200sma. It may crawl here, or it may break the 50sma and start to work its way higher, but it is right at a downtrend line too. This stock moves FAST in both directions and may not be comfortable for everyone (small position is possible).
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THE USD is not moving very much, but it landed and bounced off of a supportive trendline, and most likely has a dcl in place.
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GOLD was down, but it is chopping sideways in, what is usually a very bullish triangle consolidation. I just want to mention (AGAIN) that Gold can break either way, but this is a bullish consolidation:
1. Gold can break Lower into an ICL from here, or
2. Suprise to the upside can take place: Gold can even breakout higher and then drop A-B-C down into a higher ICL. I will draw what that could look like…
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GOLD could break out higher and then as a back test, it could do an A-B-C drop onto that Apex. The last a-b-c ICL that I pointed out was formed that way.
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SILVER is holding up well, but it is in a 4th daily cycle and really should start to weaken soon. I don’t expect a big drop, since this sector has been quite bullish.
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GDX is now forming a bullish pennant. Let’s see what happens on Tuesday, since this pennant is in the apex and it is now time to break one way or the other. This actually SHOULD break higher.
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The bull markets like the general markets remain bullish, despite any pullbacks. Gold is consolidating, but short term the Miners actually formed a pennant and look like they want to break higher. As mentioned last week, Bitcoin and the crypto stocks are acting very interestingly, and that is discussed again below. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN MONDAY MORNING – Last week I was seeing CIFR, HUT, IREN, (Obviously WULF), etc as set up to move higher, with Bitcoin falling sharply. I pointed them out in the weekday reports as bullish. On Monday morning this was Bitcoin and it dropped even lower over the weekend, but the Crypto stocks that I owned were only slightly red pre-market. So…
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Why were the crypto stocks doing well as Bitcoin dropped? Maybe they were being accumulated before a low develops, which is what we sometimes saw with Gold Miners when Gold was close to a dcl, so I decided to check the cycle count again.
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I grabbed this chart for a cycle count on Monday morning, and I saw it losing the 50sma at day 57. That is perfect timing for a low, when we look for a 60 day cycle. This would likely be a shakeout, and I put the Crypro stocks in the commenting section again as they started to turn green.
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This was my Aug 6th chart of BITF in a bullish pinch. Earnings would come out on the 12th, so that is now behind us and…
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Half hour into trading on Monday we now had the set up that I showed for BITF starting to break out on Monday, with Bitcoin at day 57. BITF then closed up almost 10% with a clear breakout.
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I posted this chart of HIVE in the comments on Monday, because they released earnings last week and now it is starting to gain some traction as Bitcoin plunged last week & over the weekend. The MACD crossed up and the RSI is actually at 61.63. It closed up a little over 6%, so it is still a buy in my opinion.
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Bitcoin plunged last week, HUT broke out above a downtrend or triangle.
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WGMI (Bitcoin Miners etf) 10:46 a.m. – The crypto Miners are doing good as Bitcoin pulls back.
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Even Riot went from red to green and closed up almost 9%, with Bitcoin Red. I think that a low is coming in Bitcoin and the crypto stocks are taking the lead.
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UPDATE 6:30 a.m. ET: Bitcoin made another new low overnight, so we are on day 58 now. With this drop, I see some crypto stocks UP again in pre-market, so the observation above continues to play out for now.
