Tuesday August 12th – Inflation Numbers
Today we’ll see the release of some inflation data, and lately semi-tame inflation and the jobless claims report has indicated that a rate cut is due. A weaker inflation report could spark a rally in the general markets, with the idea of a rate cut is possible. This data also may spark Gold & Silver, but it is hard to say if the data will be all that accurate? A report showing higher inflation might indicate that Trump tariffs are causing inflation, and that a rate cut would be bad. And then, after that report, those behind the report could get fired 😉 . Well, we’ll be watching the data release at 8:30 a.m. and then we’ll see what follows.
.
.
.
THE SPX – This should be day 6 of a 3rd daily cycle and a 3rd daily cycle can do well, especially when you picture 35 – 45 days or more and we’re only on day 6.
.
I just want to point out the MJ Stocks. The ETF MJ was up 27% alone, and some of these stocks were up 35-45%. The only news that I saw was that it was mentioned that “President Trump said Monday his administration is “looking at” reclassifying marijuana as a less dangerous drug.” BOOM went the dynamite…
.
MSOS was actually working its way out of the deep sell off in early 2025 when that news came out. MSOS (an ETF) shot up 27% too.
.
TLRY sold off hard into June, but started to rise upward in July, but on Monday it surged 38% and started to break the 200sma.
.
TLRY then closed up 42% and in after hrs it was up a total of 62% for the day.
.
VFF, TLRY, ACB, CGC, CRON, CURLF, SNDL, GRWG, and so many more were up A LOT, so we may have to see how they pull back or consolidate before entering trades. I tried looking for laggers during the morning, but most were just ripping higher after gapping up in a big way. VFF was up 34%.
.
I admit that these gaps in the MJ Stocks do not have to close if this sector continues to remain bullish. These stocks are absolutely beaten down, but we have also seen other Rallys fade over the years on false news reports & legalizations. So will we see a major ‘Gap & Go’, where they gap up and just run bullishly over time? We could, HOWEVER, there are always dips along the way and there will be pullbacks and consolidations to then buy at a safer low risk entry. If I jump into a stock that gapped and ran up 40% like TLRY did, it could pull back 25% and be perfectly healthy, but it might hurt as I wonder if it will resume that rally, so I’ll recommend being more cautious at this point. Each can make their own decision as to how they want to play the sector.
TLRY for example used to trade much higher years ago, and it might work its way there again if things remain bullish, we’ll see. If so, you really haven’t missed the big move. These rallys would be in their infancy at this point.
.
CRML is a chart that has a very nice set up, so I posted this before the market open, after SIVA mentioned it with Rare earth stocks. I like this chart set up and it could have been bought at the open or pre-market, because it had rallied pre-market and then sold off. It then opened red…
.
CRML opened Red and went green, so midday I posted that it was now up 5.7%. It ran up 9% and then pulled back to close up 6.26%. It’s still a nice set up. Start a position or buy a dip.
.
IONQ opened at the 50sma and then rallied higher in the first half hour. I owned it and other ‘Quant stocks’ started to move too, so this 10% move looked great, but it did pull back a little by the close. It closed up over 7%. These are choppy, but lately they are choppy & higher.
.
RGTI – This is another quant stock that I owned over the weekend, but I will sell most of it by the close Tuesday. I do like this set up too, but I just wanted to mentioned that they release earnings after the bell Tuesday. A small position may be fine though.
.
RR – I saw RR moving against the 50sma, so I posted this chart. It did break out and it closed up 13%. I think they had earnings on Monday night, so we’ll see how it does on Tuesday.
.
ED mentioned this stock and then I looked at the weekly chart and it looks excellent.
ASPI has earnings on Thursday, so I will wait and see how that goes first.
LAR, LAC, PLL, SGML, and others really popped in a big way too, but they also have had a good run in June-July.
.
SOUN: This is a reminder about earnings and how it can, at times, be a gamble to hold on through earnings.
.
SOUN released earnings and it Popped up 26% Friday and another 17% yesterday. I saw BBAI release earnings (also AI) and it is down 30% in premarket today! I saw a summary of their earnings report claiming that they posted an estimated loss at -($0.06), but the actual was -($0.71). That is a MUCH bigger loss if that is true. I looked at the actual report and saw Net loss in the second quarter of 2025 was $228.6 million, compared to a net loss of $14.4 million for the second quarter of 2024. We’ll see what happens to BBAI, because they still reported a positive future and good cash flow, but holding on through earnings can sometimes be a rough experience.
.
This is the story with OIL, from the weekend report:
1. We either have a longer 2nd daily cycle at day 48, OR
2. We may have just seen the 3rd daily cycle start with a Bang, and then roll over and fail. The daily chart looks oversold, so it can bounce from here.
WTIC – It may be starting to bounce, but I want to see how it trades within that orange circle, because we have solid resistance overhead and this still may be a failed daily cycle.
.
USD – I have been saying that the USD is due for a dcl, and the bounce will be important now because we have higher lows and higher highs in place. A strong bounce here could stifle Gold.
.
Notice how much GOLD dropped here. Gold and Silver both sold off and hung around at the lows…
.
SILVER also sold off, and it may be in a 4th daily cycle that begins to show signs of weakness and choppiness. The MACD is weak. That said…
.
GDX -Miners gapped down and started to rally back all day, as GOLD & SILVER were hanging at the lows.
.
IAG gapped down quite a bit, lost the 50 sma, and then rallied back to green with Gold down.
.
KGC gapped down and ended up green (with Gold at the lows).
.
SA gapped down, sold off a little more, and then rallied back too.
.
SAND gapped lower and rallied back.
.
When I try to explain why the Miners dropped and recovered while Gold and Silver remained at the lows, it would just be a guess that the bulls are accumulating miners on the dips. When the time comes for a deeper drop into the ICL, we may see more selling than buying, but for now the bulls seem to be buying the dips. Many uranium stocks also look to be consolidating their rece nt gains in a bullish manner too. UUUU, CCJ, DNN, UEC, NXE, etc
.
UUUU – Most of the Uranium Stocks have crawled over to the 20ema and are riding upon it (Aso far).
.
The MJ Sector was coming out of the lows recently, but it really exploded higher with Trumps statement about possibly reclassifying it as a less dangerous drug. He also said that the results of investigating that idea could be released later in the week. If that idea is not followed through, or there is a delay, we could see a pullback and it might be a buying opportunity. We also might start to see profit taking and selling as we await that decision, and that could cause a dip before another rally if the decision is reclassification. I’ll be watching those stocks all week long, along with other bullih areas. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
.
~ALEX
.
BITCOIN did a small ‘pop & drop’ and that is usually followed by a pullback, so we may see Bitcoin stall here. The dip may only be a move to the 20ema or the 50sma and then it could reverse higher and try to break to new highs. As a sidenote…
.
As a sidenote: The MACD does resemble the May to June consolidation on the second push higher, but that could change with a breakout to new highs.
.
HUT & WULF both looked to be holding up above support of the 50 & 200sma, while RIOT, MARA, BTDR, and a few others are trapped below and look weaker, so I’ll be watching to see if these slightly stronger Miners can continue to hold support if Bitcoin pulls back today.
.
WULF actually ran up 13% in the morning, following earnings on Friday, but it only closed up 7% as bitcoin slowly pulled back. This is a nice bullish consolidation if it holds up.
.
And this is how MARA, RIOT, BTDR, etc a look, still trapped under the support that becomes resistance. This should improve if Bitcoin runs to new highs and rallies, so a breakout could be a buy signal for this group, but Wulf and Hut do look stronger at this point.
