Wednesday August 6th
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SPX – The general markets have now pushed higher off of the 34 sma and then dropped back to the 20ema line. This would be the 3rd daily cycle out of the April ICL and I don’t see any morning data scheduled today, so hopefully we get a bounce higher from here.
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The USD is churning sideways and it resembles a small bear flag, but it may not drop past this support area, since it is due for a dcl. My day 13 should be ’12’, but the rest are correct, we are on day 26. What you will notice is that sharp drop day—matches Golds sharp Pop higher, so another drop by the USD may help Gold.
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GOLD looks to be on day 4 and it recovered the 50sma this week. What you can’t help but notice here is that Gold is 1/2 way through the height of that consolidation, just starting to approach all time highs, but many miners are 1 or 2 days into new cycle highs or 2025 highs. The Miners are strong and buyers have pushed many to new highs.
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MINERS VS GOLD No doubt about it, the Miners have been leading gold for much of 2025, but this recent shot has been a straight up blast, and you’ll see that in a few of the charts that I have below the GDX chart.
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But first we see that SILVER also bottomed at the 50sma last week and has moved up out of those lows. I need to note that this is a 4th daily cycle and often we only get 4 or maybe 5 daily cycles, so that means that we have to put it into the back of our minds that we should start to see weakness and eventually a dip down into an ICL. Even though a dip into an ICL can be uncomfortable for the ‘buy & hold’ investors, THAT will be a great buying opportunity, and those drops can recover quickly too. April is an example, but that was also a bit extreme.
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GDX formed a long box consolidation and now you can see how Miners are leading Gold higher. Gold is at the 50sma and The GDX shot up t new 2025 highs. When we see a strong burst higher it feels like it lacks sellers and may not pull back, but take a look at April. That was a strong blast well above the 50sma, but it did pull back into a day 26 low.
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AU, KGC, AEM, etc. have been very strong this week. With Golds reversal and small move higher, you can see the difference here with Miners finding strong buying. AU had earnings at the recent lows and it just took off higher. So far, several of these Miners have simply started to find support around the 50sma all year long.
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EGO – I posted this chart 15 minutes after the open, because EGO & other miners opened up red and then started to push higher, from down over 1% to up over2%. EGO posted earnings on Thursday at the lows and was at new highs now, similar to what we saw with Au, KGC, etc.
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EGO climbed up all morning and all day long, closing up over 6%. Again, it is good to see that many of these are post earnings moves.
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THM was up 12% in the morning, so I posted this chart. It dropped during the afternoon and closed up 7%, but look how well it has climbed up and along the 20 ema & 50sma from April forward. Not an easy ride, but that was a 165% move this year.
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And KGC posted earnings on Thursday and dropped right onto the 50sma, closing down 3.4%. On Friday, Monday and Tuesday it then shot up to new highs and then some. How will a move like this end if an ICL comes due? It has been so bullish in 2025 that it is possible that it just gets choppy again and back tests this area. I will draw that for you…
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Miners were so bullish in 2025 that, even though they DO get very choppy, they have held up at the 50sma or another support line.
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So KGC has been riding the 50sma rather faithfully and it could just get choppy above that recent consolidation and dip to the 50sma when the time comes. Miners are ‘buy the dip’ opportunities. P.S. KGC just doubled in 2025 going from $9 to $18 in 8 months.
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On Tuesday the general markets, Oil, and Bitcoin pulled back and bounced slightly at the 20 ema so far. I’d like to see a bounce higher from here. The Precious metals sector moved higher, and even though Gold and Silver just did a normal push higher around the 50sma, Miners shot up this week with a lot of buyers stepping in. 2025 has become a more reliable ‘buy the dip’ trade for Miners, as they start to ‘technically’ act correctly. Some are climbing the 20 ema and 50 sma rather reliably. There really is no noteworthy morning data, so we’ll see if we can get that bounce off of the 20 ema for the SPX and NASDAQ. Enjoy your Wednesdays trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN is riding above the 50sma so far, and it is oversold and due for at least a bounce. Some Crytostocks are starting to hold up despite the selling. For example…
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CLSK, WULF, and a few other crypto stocks actually closed GREEN and that was with Bitcoin and the General markets down. WULF was up 3.48%. This may be indicating tht Bitcoin is ready to move higher again.
