The CPI numbers (inflation) came out higher than expected and that usually will send the markets lower, especially when a dcl is due, but the markets held up. Today is PPI(also inflation), which also can move the markets, and the Fed Beige book at 2 p.m. We are due for a dip into a dcl, but the markets are strong, so let’s take a look at what we have.
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SPX – The General Markets remain quite bullish. We had inflation data that showed increased inflation and usually the markets do not like that (no rate cut soon), but the markets made another new peak. Surprises to the upside, but it did start to weaken so we’ll see if we get that dcl this week.
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The Nasdaq actually looked better than the SPX, by gapping open to a nice new high, but then it did sell off as the day went on.
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THE USD spiked a bit, but it is now right under the 50sma, and that was prior resistance. The USD climb could very well stop here. The MACD does look strong though, so we need to be alert to more possible upside and what that MIGHT mean for Gold & Silver. Note: Gold has ignored the USD’s rise in the past.
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GOLD #1 Gold overall is starting to look very bullish with this sideways choppiness. It is forming a large triangle consolidation, and in bull markets that can be very positive.
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GOLD#2: Gold has broken out in the past and just continued to run, it has also broken out and back tested that break out, as you can see here. That means that even if it breaks out when we are on day 18 – 22 or so and we are thinking about a dcl, it may just be a back test to a place that is higher than where we are now. GOLD SHOULD ONLY BE ON DAY 11 TODAY.
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SILVER 1 – This was Silver with a day 13 peak and a reversal. I simply drew this to show the Box sizes of a daily cycle and I drew a dip, a bounce, and a dip into a dcl, but this is not necessary…
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SILVER #2 – Silver dropped further on day 14, but that trendline is right below us and it has been reached in the past by churning sideways too. A drop today could be considered a half cycle low at the trendline and then we could rally into day 23-25 or so, so it is a bullish set up short term and longer term.
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SILVER #3 – Higher lows and higher highs are what we are seeing so far…
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AND SPOT SILVER – Notice that when we look at Spot Silver, it already reached the trendline, so this may be ready to go with a simple back test of the orange line as a half cycle dip (if it does a back test). It doesn’t have to back test here, but a continuation of the recent selling is ok.
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GDX has been choppy. It dropped yesterday and bounced back right off of the 50sma.If Gold pushes higher, GDX will likely follow.
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The bulls really are in control, the higher CPI Numbers didn’t rattle buyers, the dips are normal, and the deeper ones have been buying opportunities. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN 7 a.m. – In past rallies Bitcoin often tagged the 20 ema when it started to consolidate (see the green arrows), so we’ll see if that is what is happening here. Timing-wise, we have time to just run higher, and Bitcoin often does whatever it wants when there is time available, so this can go either way. My first original target has been met ($120,000).
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Crypto stocks are ‘O.K.’, but they didn’t really rally as strongly as expected when Bitcoin broke out and surged about $15,000 . As mentioned yesterday, some are ‘popping’ like CAN, FTFT, BTCM, and others are lack-luster. Let’s see what a couple of the crypto stocks are doing.
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WULF dropped to possible support. So you can see that Wulf peaked almost 2 weeks ago, and NOT when Bitcoin surged Thursday, Friday and over the weekend. When Bitcoin surged Friday, Wulf popped and sold off with that big red candle, so that was a bit concerning.
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MARA did breakout from the 200sma and rallied ahead of Bitcoin, but on Monday, after that big weekend rally by Bitcoin, it popped and closed red and then sold off further yesterday (down 2.34%, not that much). This resembles bitcoin a bit more.
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HUT did ok. It also ran up ahead of Bitcoin, so it didn’t continue to rally Thursday-Friday, but it did Pop and drop to a new high on Monday. So this one ‘peaked’ with Bitcoin and if bitcoin chops to the 20 ema, this may too.
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BTBT did rally ahead of Bitcoin (IREN, CIFR, and others did too), but dropped when Bitcoin rallied. Normally this dip would be a buying opportunity if it back tests the 200sma and reverses higher, and it still may be.
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So I am watching this sector to see if these will just continue to do their own thing. Speaking of doing its’ own thing…
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I owned a small position in SBET and sold it on Monday. I kind of regret that, but it Moves so fast, it gains 16-25% each day and I was worried about a 30% drop or something. SBET just keeps rising up day after day after day. If it does dip after filling that gap, I may re-buy. It ran from the 200sma $9 to $30 in days.
Tuesday July 15th 
Thursday July 17th
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