Tuesday June 24th
Yesterday was a day with fairly large swings in price intraday, but if you were working all day and didn’t hear the news, you’d never know it by the charts. They look totally normal, so let’s take a look at what we have…
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THE SPX dropped to the 20 ema and then recovered on day 20, so this set up remains bullish and many of the stocks that are on my watch list still look good.
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That drop to the 20 ema and recovery was also true for The NASDAQ. So let’s take a look at a couple of stocks.
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I had mentioned AAOI as one of my prior favorites during the ICL sell off, due to the strong gains in 2024. I then showed how it doubled from $10 to $20 and then dropped to $15 as a buy again. It is on its way to doubling again.
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BBAI is NOT running yet, but it is an ‘AI’ stock that is set up in a long base with some nice volume pops. I think that it will run again soon. It has chopped from $2.50 to $4.50 since April lows.
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In the quant area, I found this set up for IONQ yesterday. It is bullishly bouncing off of the 34 sma and formed a downtrend line that gives it the look of a wedge/triangle. As long as they don’t do an offering like some of the other ones have.
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LMND was another rapid gainer last year and it has been doing just fine since the April ICL too. It has almost doubled from $25 to $47 yesterday and could run back to the former highs soon.
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TSLA sold off sharply in early June, but then it bounced off of the 50sma and was up 10% at one point yesterday. It also looks set to recover 2024 prices.
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The U.S. attacked Irans nuclear facilities over the weekend and then Iran launched a retaliatory attach toward the U.S. bases in Qatar on Monday, and Oil dropped?? Yes. Normally Oil would spike again, like it did when Israel attacked Iran, but it was rumored or reported that Iran gave advance notice in an act of kindness ‘And a sign that it wants to deescalate’ the situation. And then Trump thanked Iran for that. Really? Yes. So it was reported that “Iran performed a mild military act against the U.S. to show that it wants to slow things down?” Isn’t that like having an argument with your neighbor and then ‘Only filling in their swimming pool with dirt to show that you want to talk peace and yet give you bragging rights?” Odd.
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Oil more than dropped, it crashed down 10% and closed below that 200sma when Iran attacked the U.S. base. That is hard to believe, because the Israel attack of Iran is what caused that sharp ramp up higher. This is only day 15 of a possible 55-60, so now it’s very hard to know what Oil will do. Will this be a day 13 ‘peak’? We’ll see, so…
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WTIC – On the weekly chart we saw Oil surge to the downtrend line and reverse right at it? That is hard to believe too! It never even tagged the 200week ma (yet). Well guess what? After hrs Oil dropped another $2 and …
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OIL dropped another $2 in after hr trading and then bounced right at the other short term downtrend line that was broken recently. The price action of oil under the current geopolitical situation is rather unpredictable.
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I was actually watching APA, NOG, and a few other Oil stocks crawl under the 200sma, and I thought of buying at the 20 ema of a breakout of that 200sma, but I grabbed this chart yesterday at noon and then…
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APA broke right through when Iran launched that attack in Qatar. That USUALLY would cause Oil to spike, but the game of war this time is being viewed a little differently and Oil sold off sharply.
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I guess that I am not personally trading Oil again, since the rules of engagement and the end result is unclear.
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THE USD has now tagged the 50sma and found resistance there again. I said in a few of my last reports that a break and close above that would be a bullish sign, but so far we are seeing the USD struggle there.
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GOLD has a day 21 peak so far on StockCharts. We are due for a dcl and it appears that it will be a mild one. A drop to the 50sma is still possible. I would have expected a spike higher with the war games going on this weekend and Monday, but apparently it just wasn’t time yet. Spot gold is on day 27, since it now adds a day when Gold trades on Sunday evenings.
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I hate to even bring this up, but I have to: We have day 21 as being back near the all-time highs again, but the MACD is not at the highs again. That usually leads to weakness or choppiness if it doesn’t sharply correct. I pointed that out with Bitcoin recently and we all saw how that choppiness played out.
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GOLD could surge for 3 or 4 days and then back-test as shown here. While it back tests, the MACD can hold up sideways, and that is the kind of price action that can correct the MACD.
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SILVER dropped on day 24 to the 20 ema, but is that a dcl? Silver has been strong so maybe it will become the dcl, maybe not. We need more time for this to play out, since a dcl can come in anywhere around this time. We may get a back test of the recent breakout….
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As mentioned in the weekly report, we could get a back test. A drop to both trend lines is the $34.50 to $35 area, as shown here.
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GDX has a day 25 low so far.
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HL really surged in early June, but it has had time to pull back and has landed in the 200sma area. If you were wanting to buy HL and missed it, you now have another chance.
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CDE also dropped to a support area at the 20 ema. CDE actually almost doubled from May into June.
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IAG held at the 50sma and then popped 7% in the first hour of trading on Monday. It closed up 5.24%.
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So we had a lot of geopolitical activity, with war and uncertainty, but only Oil really showed it in the daily charts. The bullish set ups remain bullish in the general markets and with Miners, as we wait for a dcl in precious metals. Bitcoin will be discussed below. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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Weeks ago I was concerned with the MACD divergence on BITCOIN as it ran to former highs, and over the weekend it failed.
1. We have a clear day 59 low of an anticipated 60 day daily cycle in the box.
2. We peaked on day 4 and then that weakness became more and more apparent, until it failed over the weekend.
3. Breaking below day 8 is a failure and now I do not expect new highs with bitcoin in this daily cycle. So what can we expect? …
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So what can we expect? Probably choppiness.
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Take a look at March – May of 2024,
BITCOIN also had strong divergence as it ran back to the former highs. It then failed and that entire 60 day period of time became a choppy period for Bitcoin. I can’t expect anything more than that, and hopefully we don’t see anything worse, like a deep sell off. We still have time in the 4 year cycle to rally up to $120,000 or so, but I don’t expect that to happen in this daily cycle now….and time is slowly running out.
