June 21st Weekend Report

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Taking a look at the daily chart of The SPX, we see that price is riding the 20 ema so far, and it has done that in past bull runs too. It can break lower for a half cycle dip, but this also may be all that we get for a pull back. The MACD is not healthy as we hit new highs.  Now we need to keep that in the back of our minds, because just like I noted with Bitcoin, if that doesn’t correct itself soon, it can lead to less of an upward rally and instead give us weak choppy action. We’ll see.

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If I draw the weekly chart like this, it looks like we regained that upward channel and a back test of the channel could come when we are due for a dcl. This could still go sideways or higher though, this early in the daily cycle.

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THE NASDAQ is interesting when I try to connect the lows. On this chart I also get a recovery and we’ve hit that resistance area. This is bullish.

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If I connect the lows like this, however, to get more of a parallel channel for The NASDAQ, it looks like it hit resistance and is climbing up along the underside. Neither view is bearish, but this one shows it as having more resistance as it climbs upward.

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And then we have The SOXX: This was a buy a while back as it started to play catch up and now we have a breakout above the 10 week ma, the 30 week ma, and the downtrend. The RSI is near 60 on a weekly basis, so this is bullish too.

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WTIC – Oil surged over the last 2 weeks with the geopolitical unrest. It is at a double resistance point so it may stall or crawl or pull back, but if the war continues in Iran, Oil prices will likely continue to climb. One report claimed that they are the 9th largest producer of Oil, so that could make some impact on Oil supplies and price.

 

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The USD broke down and recovered and is back inside of a bullish descending wedge. I have to expect this to break higher, but it has stalled at the downtrend again. A break above that downtrend and 50sma will be bullish.

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You may recall that I also mentioned on June 13 that with that break to new lows, we could see the start of a bounce lower, so I drew this chart.

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With that in mind, I feel that The USD needs to get above the 10 week ma to help to negate that idea because the Dollar is still below the major resistance area.

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From Friday: And Gold dropped slightly on Friday

Currently being on Day 23 Wednesday, we are due for a cycle low now, so we may see a drop here. Perhaps just a quick dip to the blue 50sma?

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GOLD WEEKLY: Gold has obviously been on a strong bull run and it takes a rest along the way when an ICL is due. I believe that we are in the process of putting in a dcl possibly next week and then it can move higher again.

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SILVER DAILY – Silver had a shorter daily cycle lasting around 27 days. On Friday we saw Silver drop on day 25 drop and bounce at the 20 ema. Silver has been strong so we could see a sideways chop along that 20 ema next week or a drop to the orange trendline to back test that breakout too. This would be about $34.50 to $35…

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SILVER WEEKLY- A drop to both trend lines is also $34.50 to $35 here too

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GDX is on day 25 and is at the 20 ema, but a drop to the 50sma is very possible, especially if Gold and Silver dip lower next week. A drop to the 50sma is $50ish

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GDX WEEKLY – We see a gap here that has been partially closed and a drop next week could fill that gap at the 10 week ma…

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GDX – This is what a drop to the 10 week ma and a gap fill could look like, but we also may just see a quick sell off and bounce back too…

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GDX – A quick drop and bounce back would give us a weekly reversal candle at the 10 week ma.

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The General Markets and Precious Metals remain Bullishly set up with the normal fluxuations that we would expect along the way. The Middle East conflict has caused oil to surge higher and take on a bullish set up too. Bitcoin will be covered below and that is also still a bullish set up, but I had some concerns a few weeks ago with the MACD divergence for at least the short-term, and we are now seeing the choppiness that I expected along the way. There is still time left for that to resolve, so I’ll discuss that below.

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Enjoy your weekend!

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~ALEX

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Bitcoin Weekly– There is nothing negative about the weekly chart, with price at the 10 week ma. The daily chart was giving me a little concern, so let’s discuss that.

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Bitcoin looks fine honestly, but what concerned me was that as we moved to the may highs again, the MACD was weak. My personal experience with that divergence is that I always see a lot of sideways choppiness that follows, and that is what we have now.  Next let me show you something that I found this weekend…

Bitcoin – I found that the current choppiness is almost exactly like early 2024, when MACD divergence was strong too. Unfortunately, at that time, the choppiness continued for the entire intermediate cycle, so I’m still hoping that this resolves in time to give us a run to the $120,000-$130,000 area before we’re done. This early in the daily cycle, we do still have a good chance that this will run.