Today is a Fed Day with an FOMC Meeting and a speech to follow. A couple of months ago it was thought that the Fed would lower rates in June, but as the time approached, the data changed that and it is expected that there will be NO CHANGE in rates. We know that Fed days often get Knee Jerk reactions in BOTH directions and that is expected to happen today too. Todays report will be a quick review, and then I expect volatility at the end of the day.
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SPX – Since we had a day 33 dip to the 200sma in May, we saw that as a dcl and this 2nd daily cycle has been very choppy and sideways. On day 17 we could get a Fed Dip and that could just become a half cycle low. THIS IS MY MAIN VIEW, one that we have followed throughout the daily cycle, but then something occurred to me…
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SPX – What if day 33 was a half cycle dip and the dcl of a long first daily cycle is due around Fed Day near day 50? We have had 53 day daily cycles on occasion, but if this is the case, I would still expect the 200 or 50 sma to be the support.
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YESTERDAY WITH OIL I DISCUSSED A PULLBACK OR A SURGE CONTINUATION. I USED THIS CHART AND SAID:
‘WTIC – If the war continues and Oil production or sales is hindered; we could also see oil prices stay elevated and it could run to prior highs as seen here.
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WTIC – Oil actually did surge 4.28%! This is only day 12 of a possible 50 day cycle, so this could have a lot more time to gain upside. OIL STOCKS DID NOT move higher with Oil, but they look to be flagging…
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NOG: OIL STOCKS DID NOT move higher with Oil, but they look to be flagging. One would have to assume that these are still a buy.
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THE USD was not acting as expected. It formed a bullish descending wedge, but then it broke down below the lows that were marked as an ICL. Was that a false breakdown and a shake out? It seems to be playing out that way, but the Fed Mtg today really may move the dollar in a way that clarifies direction. A break above the downtrend line and blue 50sma is considered a bullish breakout.
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GOLD broke the downtrend line, back tested it and made a new high on day 22, making this a R.T. daily cycle. it is dipping lower into the Fed Mtg, but on day 25 here, it can find a dcl very soon.
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SILVER has not been dipping into the Fed mtg timing, it has made a new high this morning at day 25. Most silver stocks are chopping sideways after a nice May-June run higher. They are not pulling back very much at this point and though choppy at times, they are making gains ‘Buy & Hold’ style.
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GDX chopped to a new high on Monday (day 21) and is slowly drifting lower like Gold. It is due for a dcl at any time really. It can be day 24 or it can be day 28.
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It is a fed day and we all know the drill by now. Recent Fed Days have been choppy and volatile, but the Bulls have remained in control in the bullish sectors, even if they dip for a day or 2 after the fed mtg. When we are due for a dcl, it is more likely that we will see a short lived dip, since buyers should step in after the dust settles. Enjoy your Fed Wednesday ride. 🙂
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN has been choppy, and this was expected after the first 4 day run due to the MACD. I pointed out the divergence (or lack of strength) in the MACD and unfortunately, I do not see any strong positive change there yet. In fact, the lows are higher lows and the MACD made a lower low this week. I cannot ignore that. This CAN still rally up to say $120,000 – $130.000 or so and then roll over, so if it does rally higher and the MACD stays weak, we’ll be looking to lock in profits.
Tuesday June 17th – Still Bullish 
Friday June 20th – Post Fed
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